Both Team USA and Spain are coming into the Olympic semifinals finally playing their best basketball. What will decide the winner?
Before the Olympics, it was widely expected that these two teams would meet in the gold-medal game, but a surprising thing happened in Pool B play: Spain dropped its first two games and had to scramble just to get into the quarterfinals.
While coach Mike Krzyzewski's team entered the quarterfinals undefeated in Pool A, it was not without some consternation. After blowing out China and Venezuela as expected, the team struggled in its next three wins.
With four straight wins, Spain now seems to be firing on all cylinders, and the USA is coming off an impressive demolition of Argentina. These teams will meet in a semifinal matchup Friday that could have all of the same drama as the past two Olympic finals, both of which were decided in the final minute.
Here are the four biggest things to watch.
1. Durant and Melo must both be on their game
Along with LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony have been the best USA players in international competition under Krzyzewski. Anthony is the USA's all-time Olympic scorer, and Durant led the 2012 gold-medal team in scoring. While both have had their big moments at times in this tournament, overall they have not played well together.
That needs to change versus Spain.
Each player will have a distinct matchup advantage. Durant is shooting 62 percent in the tournament and was on fire against Argentina, scoring 27 points. He should have a major advantage against his likely defender, Rudy Fernandez. Plus, he dropped 30 on Spain in 2012.
Anthony, who may be Team USA's best FIBA player because he can dominate a game both inside and outside, should create matchup issues for Spain as well.
I don't expect Team USA to turn into the San Antonio Spurs overnight. But in order to exploit the matchup advantage, the ball has to move better so that Spain can't lock in five defenders on one or both scorers. Playing a smart and experienced defensive team will not yield satisfactory results if USA resorts to hero ball.
Fortunately for the U.S., there were certainly signs of better offensive rhythm and flow versus Argentina. So, instead of Durant and Anthony finding the ball, the ball must find them. That part is up to their teammates.
2. Is there a fear factor for Spain?
Doubtful.
Remember that Spain's roster has 11 current, future or past NBA players on it. The 12th player, Felipe Reyes, has had a long international career and has played against Team USA many times. This team also is led by Pau Gasol, a future Hall of Famer and NBA champion. Spain has come close to beating the U.S. in the past two gold-medal games, with most of their key players still playing.
This USA team has 10 newcomers competing in their first Olympics. While the USA basketball program has made a nice adjustment to the international game and FIBA rules under Krzyzewski, they are still a second language to Team USA. This is the style of play and rules Spain has played with forever.
How will the experience gap affect Team USA down the stretch of another close game?
3. Can Team USA defend Spain's well-oiled offensive machine?
There is no question that USA's team defense during Pool A play was lacking. In the five games, they allowed 46 percent shooting from the field and yielded big individual games as well.
Proven NBA players in Australia's Patty Mills and Serbia's Nikola Jokic each went wild offensively. But more alarming was allowing 36 points from the French backcourt of Nando De Colo and Thomas Huertel.
Part of USA's problems have stemmed from lax switching in man-to man defense, which has led to easy baskets because offensive players could slip screens and cut to the basket unimpeded. Also, weak side defenders have lost sight of their own men and have been continually beaten on backdoor cuts. This excellent offensive execution has shredded USA's halfcourt defense at times.
That changed against Argentina. The U.S. was locked in defensively.
Instead of switching out of convenience, there was an effort to switch crisply with athletic, versatile defenders and disrupt the timing of Argentina's offense. And there was more alertness from off-the-ball defenders.
Paul George was the poster boy for this improved effort on the defensive end with three steals and three blocks. When George entered the game with Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler, the game turned around because of their bulldog defense.
Although Spain is starting to hit its stride after a slow start and possesses much more international experience, having early close calls did create a sense of urgency defensively for Team USA that finally carried over in the win over Argentina.
This team is far more prepared for Spain than the one that started the tournament, but will that defense hold up?
4. Does Pau Gasol have a game for the ages in him?
Pau Gasol, who is nursing a calf injury, is as accomplished as any player left in this tournament. In addition to being a two-time NBA champion with the Lakers, he was the MVP of the 2006 FIBA World Championships and has led Spain to two silver medals.
Last year, Gasol led Spain to another Eurobasket Championship by scoring 40 points against France in the semifinals en route to another MVP award. So, while his career is winding down, does he have one huge game left in him against Team USA that will define what has already been a brilliant run?
Even at 36, Gasol is averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds a game while shooting 51 percent from the field and 56 percent from deep in 26 MPG. He can obviously score inside but stretching the floor could create a problem for DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan.
Gasol's teammates' 3-point shooting has picked up during the tournament and their 38 percent from 3 should help open up the lane for him. The hot shooting may make it hard to double-team him inside.
If he can lead an upset of Team USA, Gasol's already impressive legacy will grow -- and he is capable of carrying Spain to a gold medal.