Ranking Simmons, Ingram and top Rookie of the Year contenders

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton are back with their series on NBA draft prospects, rookies and sophomores -- this time ranking their top contenders for the Rookie of the Year award in 2016-17.

Kevin Pelton: It has been a while since we've done one of these, Chad. With the draft complete and free agency almost entirely wrapped up, we now know where this year's rookies will be and their competition for playing time. After watching first-year players in summer league, we also know a little bit more about how their games might translate to the league.

Now it's time to look ahead and consider the 2016-17 Rookie of the Year race. When ESPN's summer forecast took aim at Rookie of the Year, No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons was the overwhelming favorite, getting 35 of the 47 first-place votes. Nobody else took home more than eight.

It's hard to disagree with the panel. While Simmons might not be the best immediate contributor on a per-play basis, he's got the best combination of readiness to play and opportunity. The Philadelphia 76ers will build around Simmons' ability to make plays with the ball in his hands, and I wouldn't be surprised if he racks up a few triple-doubles. Rookie of the Year tends mostly to be about which player has the best per-game stats, and it's hard to see anyone surpassing Simmons. I'm assuming you agree?

Chad Ford: For sure. This is one case where the No. 1 pick in the draft isn't just the best long-term prospect -- I think he's the best prospect right now, too.

He has weaknesses that could hurt his cause. He still is reluctant to look for his shot at times, and in part that's because his shot still needs work. He can be a bit turnover prone.

But as he proved in summer league, when he has the ball in his hands he can do things that very few players his size have ever been able to do. The Sixers are committed to building a team around Simmons and I think he'll have enough opportunities to win the award.

After Simmons, the race becomes a lot harder to forecast in my opinion. Who do you have at No. 2?

Pelton: I'd go with Timberwolves point guard Kris Dunn. I don't really think Dunn is most likely to finish second, since his path to a starting job is blocked by veteran Ricky Rubio, but Dunn stepping in as the starter after a Rubio trade is the most likely scenario I see for someone beating out Simmons.

Certainly, Dunn looked ready to take advantage of such an opportunity during the two games he played in the summer league in Las Vegas, averaging 24.3 points on 54.3 percent shooting. It won't be quite that easy for Dunn once opponents start game planning and trying to force him to beat them from the perimeter. But of the top 10 picks, I think he's the most ready to contribute right away. What do you think, Chad?

Ford: I think Dunn is the most rational choice as well. I have similar concerns about Rubio. However, I agree that given Dunn's talent, a Rubio trade at the trade deadline seems like a real possibility.

Dunn has everything else that you look for in a rookie of the year besides a starting job. He can score, can pass and should immediately be best defender in this rookie class. Like Simmons, his jump shot is his biggest weakness right now, but I think it's going to be hard for the Wolves to keep him off the floor.

So far we've followed the order of our ESPN Summer Forecast colleagues. They had Brandon Ingram No. 3. Is that your choice as well?

Pelton: I depart from the panel here. Remember, Ingram is the second-youngest player in the NBA after No. 4 overall pick Dragan Bender.

Instead, I'm thinking big. Real big. If anyone's going to beat Simmons for Rookie of the Year, maybe it will be his teammate Joel Embiid. If Embiid can stay healthy and if the Sixers are willing to play him starter minutes (and if they can find that many minutes with Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor also in the mix at center), I don't think there's any rookie more likely to help his team win. Yeah, that's a lot of ifs, but are you ready to dream big with me?

Ford: I'm going to depart from you and the panel on this one, Kevin. I agree, on pure talent, Embiid is an excellent choice. If he's fully healthy and if he can find minutes in a crowded frontcourt (remember that Dario Saric is also showing up as well this season), then maybe. But he has hardly played in the past three years. I think the rust will be significant.

I'm actually bullish on Bender. He's a likely starter right away at the 4. He's super skilled. He has experience already playing with and against grown men in Israel. I see a lot of potential for him to surprise people the way Nikola Jokic did last year.

Who's No. 4 for you, Kevin?

Pelton: Hmm, I don't see it with Bender -- at least not yet. He's not the only lottery pick competing for playing time at power forward because the Suns also drafted Marquese Chriss, and I think veteran Jared Dudley will probably play more than either of the rookies. There was also talk in Vegas that Phoenix views Bender as a small forward at this point, and he struggled badly on the wing in summer league.

Next up for me is Buddy Hield. While the Pelicans stocked up on guards this season, Hield is the most prototypical shooting guard on their roster and it doesn't appear Tyreke Evans will be healthy anytime soon. So I think Hield has a decent shot to start right away. With Jrue Holiday next to him and Anthony Davis in the frontcourt, Hield should have plenty of open looks from 3-point range, and he could thrive in that role despite being inefficient as a go-to guy in Vegas. What do you think?

Ford: All of my fears about Hield seemed to be confirmed in the summer league so I'm a little hesitant to put him in the top five. The sample size was small, but he shot 33 percent from the field and looked a lot like the Hield we saw during his first three years in Oklahoma than the one we saw last year. I still worry about his ability to create good looks for himself. That was a problem all summer league and I don't think it somehow gets easier in the real NBA. So while I do see an opportunity and I think the Pelicans will give him shots, I do worry that it may take him a while to adjust.

I'm going with Ingram. Ingram also had his problems in summer league, but there were enough flashes of good things there that I think he starts to figure it out as the season goes on. The Lakers will be heavily invested in playing him big minutes and I think Ingram (who got off to a bit of a slow start at Duke as well) will start figuring it out.

Who rounds out your top five?

Pelton: Despite my own reservations, I'll take Ingram fifth. I don't think he's likely to be very valuable as a rookie -- again, he's super young, so that's fine -- but my SCHOENE projections actually have him second in combined points, rebounds and assists per game as a rookie, just ahead of Hield. After Hield, Ingram might be the next most likely to finish in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting but his path to actually surpassing Simmons is less clear with Luol Deng in front of him.

Who gets your last spot?

Ford: The Nuggets' Jamal Murray. I'm not sure exactly where he fits in the mix with a likely starting backcourt of Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Will Barton, but I think Murray has the sort of skill set that should put him in a position to be in the top five.

He can score and run the point. He just has such a great feel for the game for such a young player. Not sure if he'll get the minutes, but if he does, he's my No. 5.