Team USA has now faced three near-upsets in the past week. Will these games serve as a wake-up call, or did they show how vulnerable the U.S. men's team really is?
Let's put it this way: If Wednesday's narrow victory over Australia was a wake-up call for Team USA, it didn't do much to help them in either of their past two games.
The tough test against Australia, the team's first close game after a series of blowouts over lesser competition during their exhibition tour and first two games of the Olympics, was generally described as a positive for the team's chances.
But after Mike Krzyzewski's 73-game winning streak as U.S. head coach barely survived three-point games against Serbia (which had an open look at a 3-pointer at the buzzer from Bogdan Bogdanovic that would have forced overtime) and France (which was down six until a meaningless 3 at the buzzer, but played without starting point guard Tony Parker), it's clear the close finishes have less to do with overconfidence than flaws in the U.S. roster and execution.
Will the U.S. overcome such shortcomings to claim the gold medal they're overwhelmingly favored to win?
A brief history of U.S. wake-up calls
In the lead-up to the 2004 Athens Olympics, the U.S. lost an exhibition game to Italy 95-78.
"This is a wake-up call for us," Allen Iverson said at the time. "We need something like this to understand it's not going to be easy."
Less than two weeks later, Puerto Rico handed the U.S. a 92-73 loss in the Olympic opener. So much for the wake-up call.
The 2004 team lost three times en route to a bronze medal, the only defeats the U.S. has suffered in the Olympics since NBA players were allowed to play starting with the original Dream Team in 1992 -- so far.
Looking at Team USA's history shows that close games can be wake-up calls, but a string of them (or losses) tends to be a sign of weakness.
Before dominating the most recent major international tournament (the 2014 FIBA World Cup), the U.S. had such scares in the group stage of each of its past two competitions. In the 2010 FIBA World Championships, the U.S. trailed Brazil at halftime and won 70-68 after Leandro Barbosa missed at the buzzer. That performance was something of an outlier, and the U.S. won by no fewer than 10 points the rest of the way.
And in the last Olympics, the U.S. trailed Lithuania in the fourth quarter before winning 99-94. They beat Argentina by 29 the following game and weren't threatened until a competitive showdown with Spain in the gold-medal game.
By contrast, a couple of close games during the group stages of the 2006 World Championships (Krzyzewski's first as head coach) signaled trouble ahead. The U.S. survived group-play tests against Puerto Rico (by 11) and another Italian side (by nine) and seemed to be fine after blowout wins over Senegal and Australia. In the semifinals, however, the U.S. was upset by Greece and had to settle for a third-place finish.
Perhaps the best comparison for this year's Olympics is 2000, when the U.S. also was coming off back-to-back gold medals and seemed unbeatable. Team USA dominated China and Italy in early blowout wins before beating Lithuania by just nine, the closest matchup in Olympic play with NBA players to that point.
After another narrow group-stage win by 12 over France, the U.S. met Lithuania again in the semifinals and nearly came up on the short end. Sarunas Jasikevicius shot a go-ahead 3 off the buzzer that missed, and the U.S. claimed gold with a 10-point win over France in the final.
As 2000 shows, the U.S. can survive close games and win anyway. But those kinds of nail-biters reduce their margin for error.
What happened to the defense?
As Marc Stein explored over the weekend, the vaunted U.S. defense has disappointed in the three most recent games.
In hindsight, the scary thing about Team USA's game with Australia is how close it was despite an advantage in 3-point shooting. The U.S. went 17-of-39 (43.6 percent) from 3-point range, while the Aussies shot just 7-of-21 (33.3 percent). Sunday's game was similar, with the U.S. getting more 3-pointers from Klay Thompson than France made as a team (5-of-19, 26.3 percent).
Given the variability in 3-point shooting, a possible U.S. upset is likely to look more like the game against Serbia, which made 10 3-pointers (in 25 attempts) to the USA's seven (in 20). And even Serbia could have done more damage from long distance: In addition to missing at the buzzer, Bogdanovic (who's shooting 41.2 percent from 3-point range in Rio) also missed another open 3 in the final two minutes.
The common denominator between all three close calls has been accurate shooting inside the arc. Australia shot 57.8 percent on 2-point attempts, Serbia improved that to 60 percent and France made a full two-thirds of its 2-pointers, stunning against a defense coordinated by U.S. assistant coach Tom Thibodeau.
Containing quick point guards continues to be an issue. Australia carved up the U.S. defense with dribble penetration by Patty Mills (who scored a game-high 30 points) and Matthew Dellavedova (who handed out 11 assists). Serbian playmaker Milos Teodosic did most of his damage (18 points, six assists) in the first half before the U.S. started switching pick-and-rolls. And Parker's replacement, Thomas Heurtel, had 18 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds in a starting role.
At the same time, the USA's interior defense hasn't been much better. Serbian centers Miroslav Raduljica and Nikola Jokic combined for 43 points on 17-of-23 shooting. Jokic in particular was able to take advantage of favorable matchups inside when the U.S. switched pick-and-rolls to try to prevent Teodosic's dribble penetration. On Sunday, it was Jokic's Denver Nuggets teammate Joffrey Lauvergne who had 12 points on 6-of-9 shooting in 23 minutes.
Though the U.S. heads to the knockout stages of the tournament as the No. 1 seed with a 5-0 record in Group A, the path figures to be challenging, starting with Wednesday's quarterfinals. The most likely opponent from Group B is Croatia, which beat Spain earlier in the Olympics. After that, the U.S. faces possible rematches with France (semifinals) and Australia or Serbia in the finals, where Spain also looms as a potential opponent.
Based on the past three games, the U.S. is likely to play more close games in Rio. And the next time may be too late for a wake-up call.