Let's project how we expect the NBA's top 20 international players to perform this coming NBA season, including those competing in the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.
As we've seen, the international talent pool keeps getting deeper, and the impact on the NBA is growing. Here's a snapshot of this growth:
During the seven-year period ending with the 1995-96 season, 7.5 percent of all wins above replacement (WARP) came from international players. Last season, it was up to 27.3 percent, with 100 NBA players coming from countries other than the U.S.
These rankings are based on projected 2016-17 WARP from Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projections system.
1. Rudy Gobert | France
Projected WARP: 11.69
Last year's rank: 8
Gobert wouldn't rank first if we leaned on overall real plus-minus (RPM), but his defensive RPM is the best on the board, as are his projected rebound and block percentages. On offense, he's efficient when he's not turning the ball over.
With just a little offensive growth, Gobert will justify this lofty ranking.
2. Nikola Jokic | Serbia
Projected WARP: 11.01
Last year's rank: 37
Jokic has a strong argument for No. 1, as his per-possession win percentage and overall RPM put him atop all international players. His defensive RPM is outranked only by that of Gobert, but his metrics show a fuller range of skills.
The only thing holding Jokic back is his projected minutes.
3. Kristaps Porzingis | Latvia
Projected WARP: 10.59
Last year's rank: 13
SCHOENE and RPM agree on where Porzingis is slotted here. The sky is the limit for him.
For this season, the only subjective concern is whether Porzingis will struggle for touches in a Knicks lineup shared with Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony. But he may be so good that, actually, the other guys will need to hunt for shot opportunities.
4. Al Horford | Dominican Republic
Projected WARP: 8.89
Last year's rank: 2
Horford ranks 18th in all-time WARP among international players. If his first season in Boston is typical in production, he'll move up four or five spots.
Horford is as well-rounded as any other player on the list, and it'll be interesting to see whether Celtics coach Brad Stevens can help his defensive metrics get back to elite levels.
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo | Greece
Projected WARP: 7.88
Last year's rank: 18
Antetokounmpo is moving up the rankings quickly. Because he is slated to be Milwaukee's primary playmaker from the get-go this season, it would be less than shocking to see him jet to the top of the list. He's a contender to hit that level and stay there for a long time.
It's not hard to imagine an annual argument about whether the Greek Freak or Porzingis is the best international player in the NBA.
6. Jonas Valanciunas | Lithuania
Projected WARP: 7.82
Last year's rank: 17
Until Valanciunas improves his defensive rebounding and overall defense, his impact will lag behind metrics that are otherwise solid, if not elite. Based on RPM, Valanciunas would rank well out of the top 20 (No. 43, actually), and it's time for his production to better serve the Raptors.
7. Pau Gasol | Spain
Projected WARP: 7.0
Last year's rank: 4
Gasol is another player whose RPM (ranked No. 23 overall) indicates less impact than his box score stats would otherwise show.
Now that he's in San Antonio, we will find out whether Gregg Popovich can coax a better defensive performance out of a center who ranks fifth in career WARP among international guys, behind only Dirk Nowitzki among active players.
8. Ricky Rubio | Spain
Projected WARP: 6.81
Last year's rank: 9
Rubio is our second straight Spaniard on this list, so it seems like a good time to point out that his countrymen collectively project to put up 23.8 WARP this season -- 0.3 more than second-place France among all nations (other than the U.S.) -- showing the quantity and quality of Spain's NBA players.
Rubio, an elite defensive point guard, is an RPM darling who ranks second behind Jokic among all players in these rankings.
9. Nikola Vucevic | Montenegro
Projected WARP: 6.55
Last year's rank: 10
Vucevic is one of the more skilled big men in the league, but his value is heavily tilted toward offense.
His defensive game may benefit greatly from the presence of new Orlando power forward Serge Ibaka, but if it doesn't, Vucevic could lose minutes on a deep roster to new Magic center Bismack Biyombo.
10. Nicolas Batum | France
Projected WARP: 6.55
Last year's rank: 7
Batum is a steady, balanced player who limits mistakes. Given their roster and Batum's new contract, the Hornets would stand to benefit from a more consistently assertive version of Batum on the offensive end.
But at this point of his career, we may just have to accept Batum for what he is.
11. Gorgui Dieng | Senegal
Projected WARP: 5.91
Last year's rank: 30
The Timberwolves have a lot of contenders for frontcourt minutes, but if Dieng can prove to Tom Thibodeau that he's the right guy to seal off the lane playing next to Karl-Anthony Towns, his rebounding and offensive efficiency will play well with the starting group.
12. Clint Capela | Switzerland
Projected WARP: 5.91
Last year's rank: 32
Ready or not, Capela will be asked to fill the full-time void left by Dwight Howard's departure for the Rockets. The 22-year-old has the tools as a defender and run-to-the-rim big man.
But he needs to develop some non-dunk skills on offense, and even with the league's new regulations on away-from-the-ball fouls, he still must be better than 38 percent from the charity stripe.
13. Marc Gasol | Spain
Projected WARP: 5.52
Last year's rank: 5
Because Gasol is coming off a major injury, his projection is weighed down because of playing-time concerns. However, his per-possession metrics also suggest a player edging toward the downward arc of an excellent career.
This is a big season for him and has a less encouraging forecast than that of older brother Pau.
14. Enes Kanter | Turkey
Projected WARP: 5.51
Last year's rank: 40
This is a huge season for Kanter, who in an ideal scenario would emerge as the Thunder's starting power forward. With Kevin Durant and Ibaka gone, OKC needs Kanter's firepower. It doesn't need him to be a sieve on defense (he was 70th among 71 centers in defensive RPM last year) or a black hole when he catches the ball down low.
15. Nikola Mirotic | Montenegro
Projected WARP: 5.45
Last year's rank: 29
Mirotic projects to be Chicago's starting power forward. That should be a good thing, as he's the Bulls' best hope for any semblance of floor spacing among a bizarre mix of mediocre-shooting ball dominators with contrasting skill sets.
But if Mirotic isn't hitting shots, such an arrangement marginalizes his skill set. The Bulls may have to opt for defense at his position.
16. Dennis Schroder | Germany
Projected WARP: 5.29
Last year's rank: 45
Schroder is one of three players to crack the top 20 despite a projected RPM that is below replacement level. However, now that he can count on being on the floor for big minutes more consistently, we'll have to see if his explosive game expands into more of a true floor-general kind of role.
17. Dirk Nowitzki | Germany
Projected WARP: 5.08
Last year's rank: 3
Sure, SCHOENE sees a dip for the 37-year-old Nowitzki, but then again, it's a forecasting system based on historical comparables, and there just haven't been many players who have retained so much value for as long as Dirk. In other words, he's kind of incomparable.
He ranks third behind Tim Duncan and Hakeem Olajuwon in career WARP among international players. He's 52 WARP behind Olajuwon, so this is likely where he will remain.
18. Jusuf Nurkic | Bosnia and Herzegovina
Projected WARP: 4.83
Last year's rank: 38
We'd be floating Nurkic as a breakout candidate if he weren't seemingly blocked by Jokic. Nurkic is one of three Nuggets to crack the international top 20, along with Jokic and Danilo Gallinari, and that doesn't even include still-developing point guard Emmanuel Mudiay or rookie Jamal Murray.
19. Danilo Gallinari | Italy
Projected WARP: 4.58
Last year's rank: 6
At this stage, Gallinari would probably be at his best on a team where he could play extended minutes at power forward, but this Nuggets roster doesn't seem to have much call for that. It'll happen in snippets.
Gallinari has been around long enough that with a decent season, his career WARP should crack the international top 30.
20. Serge Ibaka | Congo
Projected WARP: 4.05
Last year's rank: 11
Ibaka must prove that last season's downturn was a blip and not a trend. He'll do so on a new team, the Magic, which has lots to do in terms of sorting out roles, playing time and a style of play.
Still, Ibaka's abilities to face up on offense and protect the rim on defense should be a big part of any potential Orlando formula.
Notable omissions
21. Goran Dragic; 22. Tristan Thompson; 23. Marcin Gortat; 27. Andrew Bogut; 28. Manu Ginobili; 29. Patty Mills; 34. Luol Deng; 42. Andrew Wiggins; 57. Ben Simmons; 75. Emmanuel Mudiay; 81. Tony Parker.