The reaction has been unkind. Does that mean the Los Angeles Lakers made a big mistake in grabbing free-agent center Timofey Mozgov? Or could it actually work?
Somewhere in my files is a draft of a piece on possible bargains in free agency, and Mozgov's name appears on that list. That's when I was thinking that Mozgov, coming off a down season following knee surgery, might sign a short-term deal to rebuild his value -- somewhere in the neighborhood of one year, $10 million.
Instead, after being rebuffed by Hassan Whiteside, the Lakers turned their attention to Mozgov as their long-term starting center, offering him a reported four-year, $64 million deal that's going to be tough (though not impossible) to beat as the most ridiculous of the summer.
What were the Lakers thinking? And is there any chance their investment pays off?
Mozgov's bounce-back potential
While helping the Cleveland Cavaliers reach the 2015 NBA Finals as a starter, Mozgov evidently was playing through a knee injury. He underwent surgery after the season to remove a cyst in his right knee, according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, but may have returned too early and never looked right in 2015-16. He lost his starting job and was relegated to a deep reserve role for the Cavaliers' championship run.
The funny thing is, Mozgov's individual stats barely declined from 2014-15, though he was more impressive after being dealt to Cleveland from the Denver Nuggets midway through that season. But ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) tells a different story about his team impact.
Mozgov's minus-4.2 RPM last season put him 75th among 76 qualifying centers, and only Lakers predecessor Roy Hibbert ranked worse in offensive RPM. Both were huge downgrades from 2014-15, when Mozgov ranked just outside the top 10 centers in RPM.
Because Mozgov was so much worse last season than in the past, we can expect him to bounce back in 2016-17 if he's healthier. However, his chances of getting all the way back to where he was in 2014-15 are remote.
Remember, Mozgov is older than he might seem to NBA fans because he debuted stateside at age 24. He'll turn 30 next month and figured to be on the back nine of his career absent the injury concerns.
The other variable that's difficult to separate out from Mozgov's health is the way the league is moving away from big, plodding centers of his ilk. Omer Asik of the New Orleans Pelicans, whose own five-year, $58 million deal from last summer looks a little less bad today (thanks to the Lakers), experienced a similar decline at a similar age. Mozgov's rim protection isn't as valuable if he's being forced to defend smaller, quicker opponents who are threats from the perimeter.
Those issues only figure to get worse as Mozgov nears his mid-30s during a contract that will take him through age 33. Of the 10 centers most similar at the same age by my SCHOENE projection system, just two -- Erick Dampier and Will Perdue -- provided more than 1.1 wins above replacement player (WARP) by their age-32 season, let alone at age 33.
While the Lakers might project Mozgov as a starting center this year, it's hard to see that being the case by the end of this contract, when he'll still be getting paid starting-caliber money.
How Mozgov fits the Lakers' big picture
Signing Mozgov does fill the Lakers' biggest need, at center. And I think he might be a better fit for L.A. offensively than is readily apparent.
As I noted in my Whiteside analysis, the Lakers' roll men were far and away the least-effective finishers in the NBA. Mozgov has been used in the pick-and-roll more representing Russia internationally than in the NBA, but when he is asked to finish, he's generally effective. Last year, he shot 66.1 percent on pick-and-roll opportunities, according to Synergy Sports tracking.
It's also true the Lakers had money to burn this summer. Even with Mozgov and a re-signed Jordan Clarkson (reportedly getting $50 million over four years, which requires the Lakers to use cap space), they'll still have some $30 million in room under the 2016-17 cap and need to spend another $20 million-plus just to reach the salary floor.
The problem is the impact on next summer's cap. Adding Clarkson and Mozgov to the Lakers' 2017-18 payroll gives them about $46 million in space under the projected $107 million cap before accounting for a possible first-round pick (the Lakers again keep it if it lands in the top three) or any other long-term contracts they offer this summer.
The dream of offering two max players the chance to team up in L.A., which will require about $60 million in space given the experience of the Lakers' likely targets, is already challenging.
Maybe, given that the Lakers couldn't even get a meeting with Whiteside or Kevin Durant, punting on the 2017 dream this early is a pragmatic response after years of the organization pinning its hopes on a miracle in free agency. Still, I think the Lakers would have been a lot more attractive as a destination with another year of development for their young core, and though the 2017 crop of free agents is relatively light on centers, there will surely be options as good as Mozgov.
Instead, signing Mozgov to a four-year contract now smacks to me of moral hazard, an economic term for the increased risks people are willing to take when they don't have to deal with the consequences.
Whatever timetable Jim Buss is operating under to return the Lakers to competitiveness as part of his pledge to step down in charge of basketball operations if he fails, there's pressure on Buss and GM Mitch Kupchak to improve the team now to maintain their roles. And if the Lakers fail, well, somebody else gets to deal with the ugly back end of Mozgov's four-year contract.
Of course, Buss wouldn't really disassociate completely with the franchise since he'd still be part of ownership, so his is surely not a scorched-earth strategy. But I'm not sure spending so much on a player so unremarkable is a risk Lakers management would take if it were operating on more solid ground.