The Nuggets have a mix of young players and valuable veterans like Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.
Do they need to make trades and focus on the future or add free agents for a playoff push?
Our NBA Insiders debate the future of the Nuggets.
1. What do you foresee and advise for the Nuggets this offseason?
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN Insider: Denver should and probably will orient its offseason strategy toward the future. That means sniffing out the market for good returns on potential deals involving their high-dollar veterans, and sifting through the bargain bin for young, undervalued talent -- guys like Will Barton, whom they acquired in 2015 when they shipped Arron Afflalo to Portland.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: They should throw a max offer at Mike Conley, who is unlikely to sign but would be a great addition with Emmanuel Mudiay still developing (at best). Otherwise, the Nuggets are in a tough spot -- their growing stock of good but not great players will just move them close to 41 wins (no man's land) but probably not far beyond. So they'll probably have to swing for home runs, at least for now.
Steve Ilardi, ESPN Insider: The Nuggets' returning roster is unbalanced and poorly suited to the modern NBA, with a dearth of shooters (no credible floor spacers except Gallinari) and play-making bigs. They did a nice job attempting to address the biggest holes through the draft, landing quality shooters in Jamal Murray and Malik Beasley as well as a play-making 4 in Juan Hernangomez.
I'd advise the team to use its available $21 million (or more) in cap space this offseason (along with potential trade chips like Jusuf Nurkic) to land a quality 3-and-D wing (sorry, Will Barton), upgrade the backup PG position, and find a play-making big, especially if Hernangomez stays in Europe next season.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Nuggets are enigmatic in that they've built a roster full of raw talent, with the kind of good depth and athleticism that should play to the strengths of their high-altitude home-court advantage. But they were terrible on defense last season and lacked consistent scorers pretty much across the board.
Some of this could be fixed with better health, but as coach Mike Malone builds the defensive profile, I'd like to see them add a bedrock scorer to pair with Gallinari and take some of the heat off of the young guys.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Pending a big trade offer for Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, I think the heavy lifting of the Nuggets' offseason has already been done, and reasonably so. There's little room left in the rotation and I think it makes sense to wait and see about trading one of the veteran small forwards until closer to the trade deadline, when potential suitors might become more desperate.
2. Which is more true?
A. The Nuggets are appropriately focused on the long term.
B. The Nuggets should be thinking more about the long term.
Arnovitz: A. The Nuggets came to terms with reality in January 2015 when they sent Timofey Mozgov to Cleveland for a treasure trove of future assets, and they haven't looked back since. They've focused their attention across the ocean and accumulated one of the more impressive collections of young international talents.
Engelmann: A. The Nuggets are not far away from being competitive. As such, I don't think they need to focus more on the long term -- they might just be one player away from being good. The fact that they didn't deal their lottery pick, which turned out to be Jamal Murray, for a veteran, shows that they aren't mortgaging their future for short-term success, either.
Ilardi: B. They have a promising young nucleus in Nikola Jokic, Emmanuel Mudiay, Faried, Murray, Beasley, and Hernangomez, and should be willing to deal veterans like Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Jameer Nelson to advance development of the youngsters and set themselves up for a nice playoff run in a couple of years.
Doolittle: B. Still, as long as Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are getting court time, there is a solid enough mix of young veterans and recent lottery talent that Denver can toe the line. Besides possessing the kind of depth well-suited for Denver's altitude, the roster has the sort of positional versatility every team covets these days.
Pelton: A. If Juan Hernangomez comes over, the Nuggets could have six first-round picks from the last three seasons on their roster, plus 2014 second-round steal Nikola Jokic. So it's hard to argue that Denver is ignoring the future even if veterans like Chandler, Gallinari and Faried remain on the roster.
3. Should the Nuggets look to trade Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and/or Jusuf Nurkic?
Arnovitz: They should explore any prospective deals for all of the above. If a rival team is willing to offer the Mozgov combo platter, those placards above the lockers are easily changeable with the miracle of modern printing. That said, with the ballooning salary cap, the Nuggets needn't feel any pressure to get off that money -- unless, of course, the Kroenkes want to tighten their belts in what historically has been a finish-in-the red market.
Engelmann: Chandler's trade value is essentially zero after he sat out an entire season, so trading him probably won't get them much in return. I'm too big a fan of Nurkic to suggest they trade him, even if they already have a good center in Jokic.
Trading Faried makes the most sense to me. Some people might think he's a borderline superstar, in part because of his Team USA appearances, but he doesn't do enough to help the team win, with an RPM slightly below 0.0.
Ilardi: Even when he was last healthy (2014-15 season), Chandler had a poor -2.0 real plus-minus (RPM) impact on the Nuggets, so the team would be well served to look for takers on the remaining three years and $36 million of his contract. Nurkic, their burly 21-year-old throwback center, is a bit redundant with the emergence of Jokic as Denver's starting center last season, but he should have solid trade value if the team wants to try flipping him for an elite young shooter.
Doolittle: I wouldn't move Nurkic since his contract is cheap and his skills not only complement Jokic's, but the latter's shooting should allow Malone to play dual bigs at times. Faried is best suited as a sixth man in today's NBA, and given the NBA's dearth of quality wings, packaging him and Chandler could bring back the scorer Denver needs.
Pelton: As I said earlier, I like the idea of considering deals for Chandler and Gallinari closer to the trade deadline. In Faried's case, I'd take good value whenever it came along since I don't think he'll be considered the missing piece for a contender the same way Chandler and Gallinari might. A move right now on Nurkic feels like selling low (coming off last summer's patella surgery), and I'd like to see if he and Jokic can play together against select matchups before seriously considering a trade.
4. What's a Nuggets trade or free agent acquisition you'd like to see?
Arnovitz: There's a lot of young talent on the floor for Denver that need reps 'n' run, so the Nuggets should proceed cautiously before they throw a lot of money at high-volume players who eat up a ton of possessions.
Someone at the 3 who can shoot and defend adequately would be a nice addition, particularly if Gallinari isn't part of the future or endures another spate of injuries. Mirza Teletovic would address the first -- not so much the second. Kent Bazemore is likely to command a big number, but if the Nuggets wanted a young, high character wing defender who can shoot a bit, they could pursue that route.
Want to move Gallinari? Check in to see if the Celtics are ready to move one of their defense-minded wings or a future pick.
Engelmann: Trading Joffrey Lauvergne makes a ton of sense, given that the Nuggets have two better players at the center position. I'm not a huge believer in Mudiay (RPM: -3.8), who had one of the league's lowest true shooting percentages coupled with one of the highest turnover rates. And even if Murray turns out to be a good NBA point guard, it will take him a couple of years to get there. Given all that, I'd love it if they signed a player like Conley, even if it means paying him the max.
Ilardi: Matthew Dellavedova would slot in nicely to the Nuggets' backcourt rotation, both as a backup to Mudiay and also playing alongside him at the 2-guard position, where his 41 percent clip from 3-point range would be an enormous boost to Denver's spacing. The team also needs to bring back underrated free-agent forward Darrell Arthur, who boasts an elite 2.8 predictive RPM on defense.
Doolittle: Bradley Beal would be an ideal target if he weren't a restricted free agent and, therefore, probably not obtainable. Luol Deng could improve the defensive profile, add leadership and contribute to the already solid versatility of the frontcourt rotation. He and Gallinari would pair well, with Deng handling the tougher defensive assignments. Rudy Gay might work as a trade target.
Pelton: I'd like to see if Denver could get a future second-round pick or something else of value from the Detroit Pistons for Jameer Nelson. Nelson fell out of the Nuggets' rotation last spring in favor of D.J. Augustin, and while Denver could use a veteran presence at point guard, dealing him would allow Jamal Murray to get some minutes at the position.
5. How many times will the Nuggets make the playoffs in the next five seasons?
Arnovitz: Two. The West is stacked until further notice and even if Jamal Murray is the perfect embodiment of the big modern combo guard, there's still a ways to go in Denver. But for the first time in a good while, a plan has come into focus. It's not difficult to see a path to the 2020 playoffs behind dynamic guard play and a versatile troop of big men.
Engelmann: I'd say two times. Next season that seems unlikely. After that, Denver seems to be in a decent position thanks to having two promising young centers in Jokic and Nurkic, while at least some of the recent West powerhouses will need to start rebuilding -- such as the Spurs, Clippers, Mavs and Grizzlies.
Ilardi: I'd put the over/under at 2.5. If their incoming rookies come anywhere close to reaching their upside potential, I'll take the over.
Doolittle: Four. I think next year will be another year of consolidation and development but this is an organization that appears to be getting it together. Give them another year, then the Nuggets become a playoff fixture. I just hope they play fast, because that's what teams have to do to fully take advantage of playing in the mountains.
Pelton: It's a long shot given the conference's depth, but I don't think it's inconceivable the Nuggets could make the playoffs next year if everything breaks right. More realistically, Denver's looking at a return in 2018 or 2019, so I'll say three years as a median outcome.