As the Cleveland Cavaliers head home trailing the NBA Finals 2-0, they'll be looking for reasons to believe they can rally and upset the Golden State Warriors.
So is there still hope for Cleveland to win the series -- and if so, how?
Early 2-0 deficits hard to overcome
Expect to hear this bromide from the Cavaliers (or maybe even the Warriors) sometime between now and Wednesday's Game 3: A series doesn't begin until the road team has won.
History suggests otherwise.
Since the NBA playoffs expanded to best-of-seven series in 1984, teams that win the first two games at home have gone on to take the series better than 94 percent of the time.
Worse yet for Cleveland, which has lost by a total of 48 points so far in these Finals, no team has ever won a best-of-seven series while getting outscored so badly in the first two games. The closest any team has come was the 1995 Houston Rockets, beating the Phoenix Suns in a seven-game conference semifinals after losing the first two games by a combined 46 points.
Oh, and if that's not enough, the Cavaliers must also deal with the possibility of playing without Kevin Love for at least Game 3, as he progresses through the NBA's concussion protocol after leaving Sunday's game when experiencing dizziness in the third quarter.
What now for the Cavs? Here are a few ideas.
Let fly from 3
Of the many troubling statistics from the first two games of the series, the worst for Cleveland are probably 21 and 23. Those are the Cavaliers' 3-point attempts in Game 1 and Game 2, respectively. The Cavaliers got here by averaging 33.2 attempts beyond the arc, making 14.4 of them per game. (Cleveland has totaled only 12 made 3-pointers in the first two games.)
The Cavaliers did have one stretch during this postseason where they attempted fewer 3s, taking just 41 combined in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals. However, in those games -- as well as in Game 5 of that series, when they took 21 treys -- Cleveland was leveraging the threat of 3 into open opportunities inside the arc. The Cavaliers shot an even 60 percent on 2-point attempts in those three games against the Toronto Raptors. So far in the Finals, Cleveland is making just 40.3 percent of its 2-pointers.
Naturally, Golden State wanted to take away Cleveland's 3-point attempts. And the Warriors have been able to do so without sacrificing interior defense by switching most picks and relying on their interchangeable size to prevent mismatches.
Still, Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue has played into the Warriors' hands by shelving dangerous 3-point threat Channing Frye. Despite making 26 3-pointers at a 57.8 percent clip against Eastern Conference foes, Frye has played just nine minutes in this series. If nothing else, Frye's shooting ability drags defenders away from the paint.
More generally, Cleveland probably has to start letting it fly on contested 3-point attempts. Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith have taken seven 3s apiece in the first two games of the series, and that's not enough for an underdog like Cleveland. Getting hot beyond the arc is the best way to close the gap with the Warriors, even if it means risking greater blowouts.
But what's another blowout at this point? The Cavs have to give themselves their best chance to win.
Let LeBron face the basket
So far, the Cavaliers' primary strategy for attacking switches has been LeBron James posting up smaller defenders. That hasn't worked. Because of Golden State's ability to bring help defensively -- in addition to the quick hands of Warriors' defenders -- post-ups have been responsible for many of James' 11 turnovers through the first two games of this series.
Cleveland found more success in the second and third quarters of Game 2 by allowing James to operate one-on-one facing the basket. Because the Cavaliers put four shooters around James, the Warriors had a tough time bringing help defense and contesting James when he broke through the first line of defense. James shot 6-of-8 in the restricted area, according to NBA.com/Stats, accounting for all but one of his field goals -- a big difference from Game 1, when James was 6-of-14 within three feet of the basket.
Keeping the floor spaced for James is the biggest reason Cleveland shouldn't attempt to replace Love with bigger players if he's unavailable. Last postseason's starting frontcourt of Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson, which played for the first time in this series to start the fourth quarter of Game 2, allows the Warriors' big men to stay near the hoop defensively. And Golden State already proved a year ago it could dominate that pairing by going with Draymond Green in the middle.
Stop switching off-ball picks so frequently
As well as switching has worked for the Warriors defensively, it's been equally problematic for the Cavaliers. Repeated miscommunication among Cleveland defenders has resulted in open layups and dunks for Golden State players without the ball coming off screens.
It's easy to understand the Cavaliers' logic for switching these plays. They don't want the Warriors, particularly Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, to come free off screens for 3-point opportunities. And no matter the communication, it probably makes sense for Cleveland to switch screens set for Curry and Thompson around the 3-point line.
Still, the Cavaliers probably want to encourage 3-point attempts by non-Splash Brothers for the same reason they should take as many 3s as realistically possible. While hot shooting by the likes of Green (who hit five 3-pointers in eight attempts on Sunday) might bury Cleveland, a series of outside misses by the Warriors would provide a path to competitiveness -- certainly a better one for Cleveland than giving up a series of layups.
Embrace underdog status
Look, the Cavaliers could do everything right the rest of the series and still lose. Such is life against a team that went 73-9. Rather than chilling their approach to Games 3 and 4 back in Cleveland, that should ideally free the Cavaliers to play without expectations.
As they beat up the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 en route to the Finals, Cleveland was always the favorite. Now, the Cavaliers are clearly the underdogs and ought to play accordingly. Every strategy should be on the table for Lue, including intentionally fouling the Warriors' poor free throw shooters (Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli).
Perhaps that will result in embarrassing blowouts back home in Cleveland. But as a certain ESPN NFL analyst once told us, you play to win the game. Right now, the way it's going gives the Cavaliers little hope of victory.