Will LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have an answer for the Golden State Warriors in Game 2? What do the Cavs need to change? Who is the early Finals MVP favorite?
Our 5-on-5 team forecasts the NBA Finals entering Game 2.
1. What was your main takeaway from Game 1?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: The Cavs were not ready to play championship-brand defense. The Finals demands players to play elite-level ball on both ends, and the Cavs couldn't contain the Warriors' ball handlers.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Cavaliers looked rusty, perhaps because of their layoff before Game 1. Maybe that was just my perception, and it was the Warriors that made the Cavs look rusty, but we will see on Sunday. But I thought the rust contributed to Cleveland's out-of-rhythm offense, poor ball movement and shoddy shot-making, especially in the paint.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Kyrie Irving is still not motivated to play defense, even though it's the NBA Finals. The number of times he gambled, didn't run back on defense or seemed overmatched was massive for one game. If he continues to play like this, the Cavs are in deep trouble.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: The Cavs are in trouble if they try to continue to trot out flawed lineups. The triumvirate of Kevin Love, Irving and J.R. Smith gave up almost 119 points per 100 possessions in their time together, and yet played 30 minutes together. Even factoring in tough offensive nights for Irving and Smith, it would take a Herculean effort scoring-wise to make up the huge deficit they give up on the defensive end.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: That this series will be totally different for the Warriors from the Western Conference finals. After grinding their way through offensively for seven games against Oklahoma City, Golden State had more freedom -- particularly because Cleveland communicated poorly on switches and gave up several layups in the process.
2. What's the most important thing to watch for the Cavs going forward?
Pelton: Their ability to stay committed to ball movement. According to player-tracking data, the Cavaliers' 31 isolations were the second most by any team in a non-overtime game all season. Those plays were wildly ineffective, and Cleveland needs to find a way to attack mismatches created by Golden State without resorting to trying to score 1-on-5.
Elhassan: How they mix up their lineups to include more blue-collar players to subsidize their offensive talents. By their words, the Cavs seem to be hell-bent on playing the Warriors at their game, citing the need to play faster. If they do, this series will be quick work.
Engelmann: As I noted before Game 1, Cleveland needs to fix its rotation. With Irving playing this badly on defense, Matthew Dellavedova needs to play significantly more minutes. Channing Frye, one of the 30 best players in the league according to real plus-minus, and one of the best floor stretchers, also needs to play more than just seven minutes.
Doolittle: The Cavs need to get into their offense quicker and get the ball moving. Game 1 had some extreme numbers, but the most symptomatic ones to me were that Frye and Smith combined for four shot attempts. According to ESPN Stats & Info research, Cleveland had 25 possessions in which the guy initiating the offense did not make a pass. That can't happen again.
Haberstroh: Whether a healthy Irving and Love actually makes them better against the Warriors or just more offensively talented. For instance, the Cavs hemorrhaged 118.5 points per 100 possessions to the Dubs with Irving, Love and Smith on the floor in Game 1. That's not going to cut it on this stage.
3. What's the most important thing to watch for Golden State going forward?
Haberstroh: Andre Iguodala's gas tank. The 2015 Finals MVP played beautiful basketball on both ends in Game 1, but he'll have to duplicate that effort each night against a fresh and hungry LeBron James. After dueling against Kevin Durant last series, the 32-year-old Iguodala can swing the Finals if he has the legs.
Pelton: The Cavaliers' 3-point attempts. While that has something to do with Cleveland's ball movement, the Warriors also did a great job of limiting Cleveland's opportunities beyond the arc. Even when the Cavaliers inevitably shoot better than 33 percent from downtown, Golden State should be happy limiting them to something like the 21 attempts Cleveland had in Game 1.
Doolittle: We can pretty much expect bounce-back performances from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. So it's the benches I'll be watching. The Warriors' reserves probably won't put up another 45-10 thumping against the Cavs' bench, but they don't have to. If Golden State's reserves decisively outplay their Cleveland counterparts, it's hard to envision this being a close series.
Engelmann: Can the Splash Brothers get it going again? It's somewhat reassuring for the Warriors that they can win games even when both Curry and Thompson -- who shot a combined 8-for-27 in Game 1 -- are off. But their bench will not save them every game. Curry and Thompson will have to get back to shooting their usual percentages, or it'll be a long series.
Elhassan: Thompson and Curry having bounce-back games. The Cavs did a good job defensively against them, so will the Splash Brothers respond, or will the bench continue to feast on the resulting defensive mismatch?
4. Which of these numbers is closest to your own estimate?
A. Golden State, 77 percent chance to win (according to betting markets, PredictWise)
B. Golden State, 79 percent chance to win (according to FiveThirtyEight)
C. Golden State, 84 percent chance to win (according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index)
Pelton: C. I'd put the odds somewhere between 79 and 84 percent, but closer to 84. I think Game 1 was even more encouraging about the Warriors' ability to control matchups than the scoreboard indicated. We can examine San Antonio-Oklahoma City to see how Game 1 can be misleading. Still, I'd give Golden State better than an 80 percent chance of winning.
Doolittle: A. As one of the brave few to pick Cleveland in this series, I can't exactly jump ship after one game. I look for a much crisper Cavs squad on Sunday. And don't forget LeBron's Game 2 history -- a favorite angle the past couple of days. His teams have won nine straight Game 2s after dropping Game 1s.
Engelmann: A. The Warriors won Game 1 in convincing fashion, but a win was expected. They still need to win three more games, and I expect the Cavs to show more resistance in the upcoming games, especially in Cleveland. I also think their long break before Game 1 hurt the Cavs rather than helped them -- it has been shown that breaks longer than two days decrease performance.
Elhassan: C. Beyond Golden State's inherent advantage, the Cavs' nonsensical quest to make it an uptempo game only further plays into the Warriors' hands.
Haberstroh: C. The biggest concern for the Warriors going into the series was fatigue, and the Dubs' supporting cast allowed Curry and Thompson to get some much-needed rest in Game 1. Curry playing just 36 minutes in a Finals game is huge, considering he averaged 42.5 last Finals. The Cavs needed to steal Game 1, and they maybe blew their best opportunity to win the series.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games?
Haberstroh: I was the lone ESPNer on the big ol' panel to pick Warriors in five. The Cavs gave me no reason to jump off that island. The Warriors have now beaten the Cavs in each of the past six matchups by an average of 16.7 points. And Curry and Thompson aren't going to shoot 29.6 percent like they did in Game 1.
Elhassan: Warriors in 5. Being out-talented is one thing; having a flawed game plan is something else. Maybe Cleveland will figure it out eventually, but it's not looking likely at this point.
Doolittle: Still the Cavs in 6. Cleveland had 15 offensive boards yet was outscored on second-chance points. The Cavs gave up 25 points off turnovers. Their bench was outscored by more points than any bench in a Finals game in 50 years. Like I said: There were some extreme numbers on Thursday. I'm not changing my pick based on that.
Engelmann: Golden State in 5. I don't think Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue has the guts to bench Irving for more than 15 minutes a game. That, in turn, means the Warriors will never have too much trouble scoring, and Cleveland will have to run extremely hot to match the Warriors' scoring output.
Pelton: Golden State in 5. Along the same lines as the previous question, the Warriors giving the Cavaliers one less chance to win in the Bay makes it all the likelier that this series doesn't get back to Cleveland a second time.
BONUS: Who's your early Finals MVP favorite?
Elhassan: Andre Iguodala!! For the second consecutive year, his defense on LeBron has been magnificent, and his offense has picked up. Plus, I'd like to start the conversation about whether a one-time All-Star who never made an All-NBA team or won a major regular-season award can be a Hall of Famer.
Doolittle: Why not an Iggy repeat? Plus-21 in Game 1, hounded LeBron like it was 2015. Or if not him, how about a team award for the Golden State bench?
Pelton: Stephen Curry, if only because Klay Thompson struggled in his own right. Of the realistic contenders for MVP, only Draymond Green (16 points, 11 boards, 7 assists, 4 steals) had a particularly good Game 1. Then again, maybe we need to add Andre Iguodala to that group after he picked up where he left off after winning MVP last year.
Engelmann: Based on Game 1 performances, you might think it'd be Shaun Livingston, who scored 20 points on just 10 shots with no turnovers. But we can't expect him to continue to be this effective, so I'm going with Curry. He's the best scorer, playing on the team that's likely to win.
Haberstroh: Andre Iguodala. Shaun Livingston may have been the Game 1 MVP, but Iguodala played just about as well and has a better chance of maintaining that level of play. As Amin Elhassan pointed out to me during Game 1, Iguodala may have to steal the "Two-Time" moniker from Steve Nash.