The Toronto Raptors won the regular-season series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. What kind of chance do they have in the Eastern Conference finals?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast how this series plays out.
1. What is the most important thing to watch in this series?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Can Toronto put together an offensive strategy that doesn't consist mainly of "DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry get to the FT line a bunch of times"? They survived long bouts of scoring inefficiency versus Indiana and Miami, but their luck likely runs out against a Cavs team that has been on fire offensively and will blow games open if the Raptors can't keep pace.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: The sustainability of the Cavs' inferno 3-point shooting. Looking at it from a different angle, the Raptors will have to completely recalibrate after facing the Heat, one of the worst 3-point-shooting teams (Dwyane Wade aside) in the NBA. Taking away the Cavs' 3-point arsenal will be difficult after Toronto's exhausting seven-game series with three overtimes.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Cleveland's 3-point barrage. Beyond the Cavs' marksmanship, Toronto ranked 29th defending 3s during the season. That's partly statistical noise, partly DeMarre Carroll's injury and partly bad defense. This is still the key category because if Cleveland is bombing away, it means LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are successfully breaking down the Raptors' defense and kicking the ball out.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: It'll be interesting to see how the Raptors will deal with the Cavs' floor spacing and if they can do a better job discouraging them from shooting 3s than the Pistons and Hawks did. Also, the Raptors will need to keep Tristan Thompson -- who's averaging five offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs -- off their boards.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The 3-point shooting, on both sides. If the Cavaliers keep shooting the 3s as prolifically (36-plus attempts per game) and accurately (46.2 percent) as they have in the playoffs so far, it's hard to see the Raptors keeping pace. (Bad sign: Cleveland shot 50 percent from downtown against Toronto in the regular season.)
For the Raptors, it's all about Lowry's shooting. In four wins over Miami in the previous round, he made 44.4 percent of his 3s. Lowry had more triples in the Game 3 and Game 7 wins alone than in all three losses to the Heat combined.
2. How does the potential return of Jonas Valanciunas change the matchup?
Haberstroh: The Raptors could barely get by a depleted Heat team without him. They'll get swept against the Cavs if he doesn't show up (and they may even if he does). The Raptors need bodies, and Valanciunas will be the best answer for the Cavs' small lineup with Kevin Love at the 5.
Elhassan: The Raptors' chances of winning the series would be raised slightly. While Valanciunas is a significant downgrade from Bismack Biyombo on the defensive end, he is also the superior offensive player. Most importantly, his return would prevent the Raptors having to give minutes to Luis Scola or Lucas Nogueira.
Engelmann: If he returns, the Raptors will look to dump the ball into the post more to take advantage of his skill. On the other hand, the Cavs will probably run more pick-and-rolls, as Valanciunas is a worse and slower defender than Biyombo, who is also a strong rim protector. Frye, who helps draw Biyombo from the basket, might see less playing time against Valanciunas.
Doolittle: Valanciunas not only needs to get back on the court, he also needs to regain most of his pre-injury mobility. In this matchup more than others, Toronto needs a center who can shuffle laterally to defend the pick-and-roll. If Valanciunas is right physically, he gives Toronto a third legitimate offensive option and another method of collapsing the Cleveland defense.
Pelton: It would help the Raptors a great deal. Not only does Valanciunas give Toronto another offensive option when Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are struggling to get good shots, but pushing capable replacement Biyombo back to a reserve role also means no more time with neither center on the court. The Raptors were outscored by 29 points in 54 minutes with Biyombo on the bench over the last four games against Miami.
3. The Cavs can become the first team to go 12-0 in the first three rounds. Which of the following is the most true?
Their 8-0 record represents how good they are right now.
Their record represents the gap between them and the rest of the Eastern Conference.
They're somewhat fortunate to be undefeated.
They can't keep shooting quite this well.
Elhassan: A combination of the first, second and fourth statements. The Cavs have hit a groove in which their offense is humming, but there's reason to believe they are shooting above their heads. Despite taking 3-point shots of the same quality/difficulty as in the regular season, they're performing more than 15 percentage points better during the playoffs.
Haberstroh: They can't keep shooting quite this well. As the great Amin Elhassan has stressed on every platform available on ESPN, the Cavs haven't gotten better looks -- they're just hitting them at a sky-high rate. They'll need to shoot this many 3s to beat the Warriors, but I don't see J.R. Smith, Kyrie Irving, Richard Jefferson and Channing Frye continuing to make over half their 3s.
Engelmann: Tough to pick one, as all four statements are true. They're very good right now, but they obviously can't keep shooting this well -- 46 percent shooting on 3s is just not sustainable. And given that they won both Game 4s by a combined three points, they are indeed somewhat fortunate to be undefeated.
Doolittle: We've been saying for two years that Cleveland is one or two tiers above everybody else in the East. The Cavs ran through the conference last year despite being ravaged by injuries. Now they're healthy. Surely going 12-0 would demonstrate that Cleveland is in optimal form. But more importantly, it would speak to the Cavs' 1-percenter status in the East.
Pelton: They can't keep shooting this well. No team in playoff history has shot even 45 percent from beyond the arc in more than 150 attempts, so the Cavaliers are already in uncharted waters here. While their improved ball movement has generated good looks, they've still been lucky as well as good to shoot this well, and a few more misses would turn their close wins into a loss or two.
4. Toronto won two of three versus Cleveland in the regular season. How meaningful is that?
Elhassan: Not meaningful. Beyond Cleveland's current offensive flow, DeRozan and Lowry combined for more than 15 FTAs per game in the two wins. The Raptors have struggled to score for long stretches during the playoffs against teams not as offensively potent as the Cavs, and I think this is where their luck runs out.
Haberstroh: Not meaningful. The Cavs' big three of LeBron, Irving and Love played together on the floor for just 39 minutes of the 144 minutes in those games. And they outscored the Raptors 89-71 in that time, per NBA.com tracking. That's more or less how I see this series going.
Doolittle: Not meaningful. Toronto's wins were on their home court, they won by a total of six points, and the first win came when Cleveland had a different coach and no Kyrie. Of course, if I'm Dwane Casey, I'm not giving my players any of that context.
Engelmann: Not only is it not meaningful because it's too small a sample size, the 2-1 record in favor of Toronto is also misleading: In these three games, the average point differential -- a better predictor of future performance than win-loss record -- is plus-8 in favor of Cleveland.
Pelton: Not meaningful. Toronto's two wins at home came by four and two points, while Cleveland won by 22 on its home court. So the Cavaliers were a lot closer to going 3-0 against the Raptors than they were 0-3.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games?
Haberstroh: Cleveland in five. According to SportVU data, Lowry has scored 41.1 points per 100 possessions when guarded by Irving this season. That's a lot, and it'll be good for one win. The rest is all Cavs.
Elhassan: Cleveland in five. I'm allowing for one home game in which Lowry and DeRozan flourish (as in Game 7 versus Miami), but the combination of a lack of Valanciunas and a host of flawed players will make this an easy win for the Cavs.
Engelmann: Cleveland in five. The Cavs were the better team during the regular season and, on top of that, are currently firing on all cylinders. The Raptors, meanwhile, stumbled into the Eastern Conference finals, needing seven games to finish off their opponents in both series, and are dealing with a battery of injuries to their key players.
Doolittle: Cleveland in five. There's just too much of a gap. Which individual matchup clearly favors the Raptors? Even Lowry versus Irving is an excellent debate. The Raptors are without their third-best player and have already ground through 14 playoff games. I can see the Cavs having one poor-shooting night in Toronto, but that's about it.
Pelton: Cleveland in five. The return of the Lowry, who was a top-10 player this season, gives the Raptors a chance to compete on relatively even terms, but I see the Cavaliers dominating the minutes when Lowry and Biyombo are on the bench, and I think Toronto will be unable to make up the difference on a regular basis against Cleveland's star-studded starting five.
BONUS: If the Raptors upset the Cavs, how did they do it?
Haberstroh: Jonas Valanciunas turns into 2008-09 Dwight Howard and the rest of the Cavs falter while LeBron puts on a one-man show. I don't think that's happening. It's hard to imagine the Raptors hitting enough home runs to knock out the Cavs. Case in point: DeRozan made one 3-pointer in the entire Miami series.
Engelmann: In that case, Lowry and DeRozan were very successful attacking the basket thanks to Cleveland having essentially no shot-blocking. Biyombo discouraged James and Irving from driving, and the Raptors did a good job closing out on the Cavs' many 3-point shooters, while getting a little lucky when it came to making their own 3s.
Doolittle: Short of injuries playing a major role, Lowry and DeRozan need to score efficiently and get to the line. Also, a wild-card third option needs to emerge for Toronto -- someone like Terrence Ross, who sporadically rolls up big numbers. And the Cavs' shooters need to struggle from deep.
Elhassan: If that happens, it means the Cavs' hot shooting abandoned them, followed by the trust and goodwill they have in one another abandoning them as well.
Pelton: Such an outcome would mean that facing the best offensive team they've played in the playoffs, the Cavaliers couldn't turn up the intensity on their defense, the worst on a per-possession basis of any team to win a playoff series. Lowry stayed hot from 3 and DeRozan found limited resistance at the basket, allowing them to get going, and when Cleveland went cold from 3-point range, the Raptors were able to outscore them.