With Tim Duncan at age 40 and Manu Ginobili 38, there's talk that it might be time for the Spurs legends to hang them up after a (relatively) early playoff exit this year.
I don't think so. And advanced stats agree with me.
In fact, on a per-possession basis, Duncan and Ginobili remained top-20 NBA players this season, believe it or not.
That's according to real plus-minus (RPM), the metric that Steve Ilardi and I developed for ESPN. Real plus-minus estimates the impact players have on the team's performance, taking into account teammates and opponents.
The man called 'Groundhog Day'
Charles Barkley's nickname for Duncan is "Groundhog Day" because every day seems the same for The Big Fundamental. If you look at Duncan's numbers from his rookie season (1997-98) to last season, particularly the per-possession numbers, you see the same guy doing the same things for 18 years.
This season, however, has been a bit different. Duncan, for the first time in his career, averaged fewer than 10 points per game in the regular season, and his offensive numbers are down across the board, from any angle. Heading into Game 6 against the Thunder, he was averaging a mere 3.4 points per game.
He is taking fewer shots than ever, less than half his career average, and is hitting a smaller percentage of the shots he takes. Against the Thunder, Duncan has looked like a nonfactor, if not a liability, on offense. He's simply not an offensive force anymore.
Duncan is also recording the fewest rebounds, not only on a per-game but also on a per-minute basis. He is blocking shots at the second-lowest per-minute rate in his career.
An aging curve helps us predict how players will perform in the future. Duncan's aging curve shows that the offensive decline would likely continue next season. So isn't he done?
No.
Scoring isn't everything, and some of Duncan's stats are actually at a per-minute high for his career: At age 40, Duncan is sporting his best assist rate and best steal rate ever. He is turning the ball over at the second-lowest rate of his career.
And while he has blocked only the 22nd-most shots per 36 minutes this season, he ranks ninth in blocks that find their way to the defense, which are significantly more valuable than those that go back to the offensive team. Duncan's impact might have slightly declined, but it's still at a very high level.
The plus-minus numbers tell the same story: The 2015-16 Spurs, who would have been the best regular-season team the NBA has seen in quite some time if not for the history-making Golden State Warriors, were the NBA's best defensive team. Furthermore, they have been five points better per 100 possessions with Duncan on the court in the regular season and playoffs. Duncan remains a defensive stalwart.
In defensive RPM, Duncan ranks an amazing second in the NBA. When he plays, he improves the Spurs' defense by 5.13 points per 100 possessions more than the average player. Overall, his RPM is 4.69, 14th-best in the league. (His below-average offensive impact drags him and the team down marginally, though not as much one might think.)
Duncan, thanks to the rest provided by San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich, still has something left. Even if he plays out his option year at $5.5 million next season, he would be among the most underpaid players. And if he declines the option and takes less money, he should be even more valuable.
The second-best shooting guard in the league*
This headline gets an asterisk, because Ginobili plays fewer than 20 minutes a game. For that reason, he's not really the second-most-valuable shooting guard.
But looking at real plus-minus, the ageless Argentinian has been the 17th-best player in the league this season on a per-possession basis, and the second-best player at the 2 position.
In part, Ginobili benefits from an era with fewer superstars at shooting guard. These days, with the decline of Dwyane Wade and the now-retired Kobe Bryant, only James Harden is clearly playing at a higher level than Ginobili, with players like Jimmy Butler and Klay Thompson faring worse in RPM -- albeit on a lot more playing time, making them more valuable than Ginobili overall.
It might appear to some that Manu is an old, balding shell of himself, but appearances are deceiving. He is still scoring 17.6 points per 36 minutes -- an above-average rate and only 1.5 points below his career average. He is hitting almost 50 percent of his 2-point shots and almost 40 percent of his 3s. Assists per 36 minutes? Above his career average. Steals? The same.
Keep in mind: With Ginobili being one of the most creative passers this NBA has ever seen, his assists are more valuable than those of others. In fact, according to my research, Ginobili ranks first in the NBA in how much his assists affect his teammates' effective field goal percentage, something that doesn't make its way into his box score line, but definitely affects the scoreboard and the standings.
Being mostly a sixth man, Ginobili has never really dazzled with great per-game stats. Plus-minus stats make his greatness clear, though. Since 2001, Ginobili ranks first in per-minute plus-minus for players with 10,000 or more career minutes. His Spurs have outscored opponents by more than 10 points per 48 minutes with Ginobili on the court, an elite mark that even LeBron James and Steph Curry (both around seven per 48 minutes) don't come close to matching.
This season, Ginobili's plus-minus numbers have showed no signs of dropping. With a plus-minus of 14.5 per 100 possessions during the regular season, Ginobili once again led the Spurs.
Before being eliminated on Thursday night, the Spurs were outscoring opponents by 24 points per 100 possessions with Ginobili on the court, and by only five points when he sat. And while defense is not supposed to be his strong suit, the Spurs are defending at their best when Ginobili plays.
Ginobili also has a player option for 2016-17, and it's even cheaper than Duncan's -- Manu is due to make a little less than $3 million. That's an absurdly low salary for a player who projects to have a 3.7 RPM next season, good for top five among 2s.
We understand the appeal of riding off into the sunset. But is now the right time? Is it nightfall yet?
The numbers show that the day might not be done for two of the greatest players of their generation.