Is new coach Nate McMillan a good hire for Larry Bird? How do the Pacers find another superstar to play next to Paul George?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 on the future of the Pacers.
Note (May 16): This post has been updated following the Pacers' hiring of Nate McMillan.
1. What's your take on the hiring of Nate McMillan as head coach?
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I like the hiring. McMillan overperformed in Portland, given the roster. He was one of the better coaches available. It should be noted, though, that the teams he coached were frequently among the slowest teams in the league in terms of pace. Is that what Larry Bird wants?
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: McMillan's track record as a head coach includes 12 years, a break-even record, one playoff series win, 11th or worst in defensive efficiency every season, 24th or slower in pace eight times. Fired from the Blazers because his players quit on him. This is an upgrade over Vogel?
Also, if there was a disconnect between the Pacers' players and coaches, wasn't McMillan a part of that? Egad.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: While he doesn't exactly fit Bird's stated desire to play faster, McMillan can transition the Pacers to the four-out style Bird wants the Pacers to play. Remember, McMillan's 2004-05 Sonics team that played eventual champion San Antonio as tough as anyone in the playoffs relied heavily on Vladimir Radmanovic as a stretch-4, and some of McMillan's best Blazers lineups had LaMarcus Aldridge in the middle with Gerald Wallace sliding down to power forward.
If retaining assistant Dan Burke can help Indiana maintain its defensive integrity, McMillan's ability to build offenses that combine lots of 3s with strong offensive rebounding could juice the offense.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: I'm lukewarm to it. He's had an impressive run with top-flight offenses in Portland and Seattle, but his body of work suggests he's not the right fit for the run-and-gun, small-ball team that Larry Bird wants. It seems like the easiest hire, but not necessarily the most creative one.
2. What do you foresee and advise for the Pacers this offseason?
David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: Invest time into making Myles Turner an All-Star -- he has that kind of upside. Going after Gorgui Dieng would be interesting as well. Then search Europe for a lead guard -- battle tested and mature -- to run the second unit.
And at the 20th pick in the draft, take the highest-ranked long-term prospect under the age of 20 and let him develop for a season in the D-League. In two or three years he'll be ready to help this team at a perfect time.
Haberstroh: Build continuity. I really enjoyed the emergence of Ian Mahinmi, who finished top 10 in defensive real plus-minus (RPM) this season, but they have a tough decision to make whether to keep him in free agency. I'd probably re-sign the 29-year-old for three years, $40 million because it's hard to attract that type of talent to the Midwest. Retaining is easier than recruiting in Indiana.
Engelmann: I'd advise the Pacers to not make any drastic moves, but instead try to put a slightly improved supporting cast around their star, Paul George. Re-sign Ian Mahinmi, who was eighth in the league in defensive real plus-minus, and go for the best value available in free agency, no matter the position.
Doolittle: The building blocks are Paul George and Myles Turner, and the great thing is that they allow you to feature different looks. Both can play the 4, George can be a 3 and Turner can be a 5. Ian Mahinmi fits this dynamic as the center in big lineups who can sit if you want to play faster. I think you keep him. After that, the primary objective is to add a second wing with size who can shoot.
Pelton: Nothing drastic. The most interesting question for the Pacers is whether they re-sign Ian Mahinmi or turn the center position over to Myles Turner and look for a starting power forward to play with Turner, though it's certainly possible Indiana could do both.
3. Should the Pacers get a stretch 4 and play smaller and faster?
Haberstroh: I wouldn't necessarily break the bank for a guy like Ryan Anderson just yet because I believe in Myles Turner to eventually fill that role. However, I'd target a stretch-4 on the lower tier -- say, Mirza Teletovic, Anthony Tolliver or Jonas Jerebko -- for shorter years and less money.
Thorpe: Sure, why not? It does not mean they have to start him and play that way. If they can find someone to crack their top five, then great, or they can find someone to add to the bench and play a bit faster with their second unit. George, as he ages, might begin to accept increasing time defending power forwards as well.
Engelmann: Playing faster sounds nice in theory -- and would probably benefit Monta Ellis -- but many players on the roster, especially Mahinmi, Lavoy Allen and C.J. Miles, are relatively slow for their respective positions. Also, this summer isn't exactly loaded with free agent bigs who are fast and can shoot from outside.
Doolittle: It's just going to be a change-of-pace look, with George emerging as a dynamic playmaker and Turner as a bona fide foundation piece. Larry Bird needs to worry more about finding complements for that duo than style of play. They will figure out the style, and the Spurs have shown you can still win with a big team.
Pelton: Their lineups with Solomon Hill at power forward have generally been good at the playoffs, and while it's a long shot I'd be curious to see how Indiana would look with someone like Harrison Barnes in that role. Alas, the Pacers will probably have to replace Hill since they can offer him no more than the amount of his fourth-year option they declined ($2.3 million) as a free agent.
4. What do you expect from Myles Turner next season and beyond?
Haberstroh: He really impressed me as a guy who was a teenager for most of the season. Once he builds up his core strength, I think he'll be a stretch-5 starter in the mold of Channing Frye. Maybe not next season, but in time.
Thorpe: I'm a big fan. He has All-Star potential. He clearly made strides this season and he just turned 20. They should seriously invest in his future, beyond spending time with him on his game. Create systems and strategies that will enhance his production.
Engelmann: Turner fits the modern NBA perfectly by being a big guy who can stretch the floor -- almost 40 percent of his shots were from 16 feet or more. His assist rate of just 1.1 per 36 minutes is a bit worrisome, but the rest of his numbers look solid. I can definitely see him being an above-average starter.
Doolittle: The sky is the limit. His individual production at 19 was terrific, and we've seen his ability to put up numbers that add to the bottom line improve as the season has gone along. His versatility is what's really exciting and the Pacers have a good track record of developing players.
Pelton: Steady progress. Another year in the weight room should help Turner deal with bigger, more physical opponents like Jonas Valanciunas and more experience should help his pick-and-roll defense. The big question is how quickly he can turn the 20 footers he shoots now into 3s. As soon as that happens, Turner will become a valuable player.
5. What's the Pacers' most likely path to getting another star?
Haberstroh: It's going to be tough. They're notorious for holding onto their picks, which is smart for a rebuilding team in a non-glamorous market. But if I'm Larry Bird, I have to think about maximizing Paul George's prime and not letting it waste with an aging Monta Ellis as his best co-pilot. Packaging Ellis, a future first-rounder and Myles Turner would probably be their best option.
Thorpe: They have a good system and a smart coach, so converting a solid player into a star is always possible. Find the guy who is underachieving for another team and get him. You know who averaged six points and five rebounds two seasons ago and was someone his team might have been willing to trade? Draymond Green.
Engelmann: Trading for another star seems unlikely, unless that star is disgruntled -- the Pacers simply don't have many players other teams would love to have. Thus, I think getting that star through free agency is more likely.
Doolittle: Just in terms of the basketball situation (and not the market), the Pacers are an attractive fit for free agents. You want to be a tipping-point player for a team teetering on becoming really good? You could do worse than the Pacers. Trading for another star without moving Turner or George is more problematic.
Pelton: Not sure they have a reasonable path to doing so other than getting really lucky in the draft. While the Pacers have decent cap flexibility, it's hard to make a case for them for a marquee free agent and any team trading a star would surely ask for Paul George or maybe Turner.
BONUS: If Pacers were a stock and you were looking three years ahead, would you buy, sell, or hold?
Haberstroh: Hold. I think there is a real danger of Indiana getting stuck in the hamster wheel of mediocrity -- not good enough to contend for a title and not bad enough to have a good shot at landing a franchise cornerstone in the draft. Being the "Joe Johnson Atlanta Hawks" isn't the worst thing, but I'm bigger on Detroit's future, for example. Turner is a nice young piece, but the core players around George are entering their 30s and that's not making me pounce on their long-term prospects.
Thorpe: It'd be a conservative buy. Good teams that are well run tend to stay good. As a stock, the Pacers will keep churning out "profits" with little risk, with the potential that one of their players -- or a draft pick or acquisition -- makes a big leap forward in production at a lower salary.
Engelmann: Probably buy. The Pacers have done mostly solid roster moves in the recent past, have drafted relatively well given their draft position and have one of the better coaches in the league. It seems unlikely that they'll take significant steps backward in the near future.
Doolittle: Hold. If Turner fully develops and George remains the superstar we've seen in the playoffs, maybe there will be a major free agent that takes a look in a year or two. Sure, that's a long shot for a franchise that has rarely relied on free agents, but it's still a shot.
Pelton: Hold. The Pacers are reliably well managed in the front office and on the sidelines and have two nice pieces of their future starting five in George and Turner, but the rest of Indiana's 2018-19 roster remains uncertain with George Hill's bargain contract ending after next season. So there are still plenty of questions for the Pacers to answer.