Note: This article has been updated after the news that Blake Griffin is out for the playoffs and Chris Paul is out indefinitely.
The MVP is hurt, and that changes the championship outlook for the Golden State Warriors. But how much? Can they still win the title? Or could they suddenly be in danger of missing the NBA Finals altogether?
When Stephen Curry slipped to the court awkwardly just before halftime of Sunday's Game 4 against the Houston Rockets, the Warriors were forced to confront the possibility of trying to win a second consecutive title without their star for at least the next two weeks.
With Curry playing barely more than two halves in the series (an ankle sprain knocked him out of Game 1), the Warriors have been able to beat the self-destructing Rockets in two of the past three games to take a 3-1 lead in the series.
Assuming the Warriors can survive the Rockets, let's do the math on how the Warriors' chances in the second round shape up without Curry.
Warriors still elite without Curry
A simple first glance at Golden State's performance without Curry creates a misleading impression.
According to NBA.com/Stats, the Warriors were outscored by 3.7 points per 100 possessions during the regular season with Curry on the bench -- the same net rating as the Denver Nuggets, who went 33-49.
Remember, though, that most of those minutes came with Golden State's second unit on the court or sometimes even the third string to close out one of the Warriors' many blowout wins.
When we break down Golden State's performance sans Curry by who else was playing using NBAwowy.com, it's clear Golden State is still an elite team, as long as Curry's fellow All-Stars Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are out there.
Because Curry missed just three games and Warriors coach Steve Kerr tended to play his starting lineup together rather than staggering minutes, Green and Thompson were on the bench with Curry about half the time he was out of games during the regular season.
A better way to estimate Golden State's level of play without Curry is by using the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
RPM suggests the Warriors are 1.6 points per 100 possessions better than league average on offense without Curry. That rate would make Golden State about the NBA's eighth-best offensive team (tied with Houston).
On defense, the Warriors would rate third in the league, at 4.4 points per 100 possessions better than league average (behind only San Antonio and Atlanta).
So using the minutes distribution we saw in Games 2 and 3, with Curry out, the Warriors would be about 6.0 points per 100 possessions better than the league average overall. That is a slightly better than Cleveland (at 5.8), and it translates to about 57 wins over a full season.
That estimate is similar to how Las Vegas has treated the Curry-less Warriors this series. The final line for Game 2 favored Golden State by 8.5 points at home after Curry was ruled out, and the Warriors were 3.5-point favorites for Game 3 on the road, suggesting that gamblers consider Golden State about six points better than the Rockets on a neutral court. The line went up just five points (to the Warriors as 8.5-point favorites) for Game 4, when Curry was available.
Warriors heavy second-round favorites after Chris Paul injury
Assuming Golden State finishes off Houston, next up will be the winner of the 4-5 series, where the Clippers and the Trail Blazers are tied 2-2.
The Clippers-Blazers series changed dramatically on Monday when Chris Paul left Game 4 with what was later diagnosed as a fractured third metacarpal on his right hand. Without Paul and All-Star forward Blake Griffin -- who will miss the postseason after he aggravated a left quad injury in the same game -- the Clippers are no longer favorites to beat Portland, which has important implications for Golden State's chances.
Even without Curry, the Warriors would be strong favorites over the Blazers. I estimate a 77 percent chance Golden State would beat Portland if Curry does not play at all, which improves to 87 percent if Curry is able to return after Game 4 -- when the timetable Golden State released would have Curry reevaluated in two weeks.
A Warriors-Clippers matchup is much more difficult to project because of all the injuries on both sides, but if Paul is unable to return for the postseason, the Clippers look like less formidable opponents than the Blazers, particularly with Griffin out and fellow starter J.J. Redick dealing with a painful heel contusion.
What are the odds?
The Warriors surely need Curry back by the start of the conference finals, when their path becomes much more difficult. The net rating of one potential opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder, is 6.9, which is better than our estimate for Golden State without Curry.
And the Spurs are at 11.8, far ahead of the Warriors without Curry.
In the worst-case scenario where Curry's knee injury would keep him out the remainder of the postseason, I would estimate about a 5 to 10 percent chance of Golden State winning the title.
Assuming he can make it back for the conference finals, however, the Warriors remain the most likely champion, especially now that the second-round matchup no longer looks as formidable. If Curry is able to return to full health, I give Golden State a better than 50 percent chance of winning the title even if he misses the entire second round, and around a 60 percent chance if he returns in two weeks -- similar to where I felt the odds were before Curry's injury.