Who should finish No. 2 behind Steph Curry for MVP? Which players belong on the All-NBA teams? And what about coach of the year? Kevin Pelton gives his award picks for the season.
Most valuable player
1. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
The only MVP "race" this year is whether Curry will become the NBA's first unanimous winner. After defying regression for so long that it seemed it might never come, Curry finally slipped a bit in March and April.
As a result, he's no longer posting the best regular season ever by advanced metrics. Though Curry still will set records for best offensive box plus-minus rating and best offensive rating relative to the league by my wins above replacement (WARP) metric, once defense is factored in Curry's 2015-16 campaign is not No. 1.
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
The real MVP debate starts with the second spot on the ballot. In terms of box-score stats, Westbrook has the strongest case by a wide margin. His 19.7 WARP are more than two wins better than anyone else. Westbrook's individual stats overstate his defensive contributions, but I still think he's been the second-best player in the league.
3. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
5. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
With apologies to Draymond Green and guards Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul, the other MVP debate is how to place Durant, James and Leonard -- something that takes on even more importance on the All-NBA team because just two of the three forwards can make the first team.
James has come on late in the season and leads this group in WARP and wins generated based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). Despite having the league's second-best RPM on a per-minute basis, Leonard's low minutes total puts him behind James in terms of value. However, Leonard still edges out Durant, who lags in RPM, ranking ninth in the league. As a result, Durant is the odd man out on the All-NBA team.
All-NBA first team
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (G)
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (G)
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (F)
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs Center (F)
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors (C)
I argued early in the season that Green was the NBA's best center, and nothing has changed since then. Given that Green has played nearly a quarter of his minutes at center (24.1 percent have come without Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Marreese Speights or Anderson Varejao on the court, per NBAwowy.com) and the lack of any centers among the league's 10 best players, it's absolutely appropriate for voters to put him here.
All-NBA second team
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers (G)
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors (G)
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (F)
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks (F)
DeAndre Jordan, L.A. Clippers (C)
There's an interesting debate over whether Paul (better on a per-minute basis) or Lowry (logging way more minutes) has been more valuable this season, but both belong on the second team. The other spot at forward comes down to a pair of Pauls -- George and Millsap -- and all the numbers give Millsap a small edge. Jordan has the most RPM wins of any full-time center and is far more reliable than most of the alternatives.
All-NBA third team
James Harden, Houston Rockets (G)
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (G)
Paul George, Indiana Pacers (F)
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers (F)
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks (C)
As much as I didn't want to put Harden on the All-NBA team, his offense has been good enough -- and his value high enough because of his heavy playing time -- to outweigh his indifferent defense. Klay Thompson edged out Lillard for a spot on my All-Star roster (and the real one), but Lillard has played well enough since the break to force a revote.
Surely, Love is the most surprising name here. His 12.2 RPM wins are more than two more than any other forward (Gordon Hayward is next at 10.1). The Cavaliers remain at their best with Love on the court because of the spacing his shooting provides.
Any number of centers can make a case for this spot, including Anthony Davis (who played more minutes at center than power forward). Durability works against both Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, clearly the best player in this group on a per-minute basis. I'm inclined to reward Horford, the anchor of the league's second-best defense and a versatile offensive contributor.
Rookie of the year
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
3. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
As I noted in last week's rankings of rookies on potential, I think there's a case that Jokic (an RPM superstar) has been the best rookie on a per-minute basis, but Towns has played more than 800 additional minutes, which makes him the choice for rookie of the year. These three rookies have separated themselves from the rest of the class.
All-Rookie first team
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
The other two choices for the All-Rookie first team are a little more challenging. Winslow gets the next spot by virtue of playing the second-most minutes of any rookie (behind Towns) for a playoff team, along with his terrific defense. Kaminsky isn't close to younger rookies in terms of potential, but when it comes to helping a team win this season, he's done more for the Hornets with his spacing than players who have put up bigger box-score stats but terrible RPM ratings.
All-Rookie second team
Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets
Josh Richardson, Miami Heat
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
Three notable omissions here, two of them preseason favorites for ROY: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jahlil Okafor and late-rising Devin Booker. All three did make my top 10 in terms of long-term potential, but they didn't help their teams win this season. Booker and Okafor were two of the league's bottom five players by RPM wins, and both Booker and Mudiay rated below replacement level by WARP.
Sixth Man Award
1. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
2. Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors
3. Ed Davis, Portland Trail Blazers
This award has generated an unusually high amount of discussion because of the contrast between the players with the best box-score stats (Will Barton, Jamal Crawford and Enes Kanter) and those who score well in RPM (Iguodala, Patterson and Davis).
In this case, I'm inclined to trust RPM. Kanter has a long history of putting up impressive stats without helping his team on the scoreboard, Barton's size is a defensive shortcoming and Crawford's numbers besides scoring aren't actually that impressive (he's hitting 44 percent of his 2-point attempts and just 34 percent of his 3s).
Meanwhile, Iguodala has merely been key to the NBA's most dominant lineup. Whether he wants the award or not, he deserves it. But don't sleep on Patterson, whose 6.2 RPM wins lead full-time reserves. (Gorgui Dieng ranks higher, but much of his contribution has come in 38 starts.)
Most improved player
1. C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers
2. Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets
3. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
McCollum was a trendy preseason pick for this award because of his combination of opportunity and ability. Let's be clear, however, that this is not merely a case of a talented player getting more minutes. As well as he played in the 2015 playoffs, McCollum was out of the rotation two months earlier between the Arron Afflalo trade and Wesley Matthews' injury. He's made dramatic strides since then, including learning how to run the team as a point guard.
As rookies, Harris and LaVine were among the NBA's 10 worst players by RPM (LaVine was the very worst). They've made dramatic strides in Year 2, with Harris emerging as a useful 3-and-D role player and LaVine settling in as a high-scoring shooting guard after struggling when asked to play the point.
Defensive player of the year
1. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
2. Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
3. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
For the reasoning behind my defensive player of the year vote and my all-defensive teams, see Monday's column.
Coach of the year
1. Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors
2. Steve Clifford, Charlotte Hornets
3. Mike Budenholzer, Atlanta Hawks
I'm not sure there was anyone better to manage the Warriors' pursuit of history than Kerr, given his experience as a player for the Chicago Bulls setting the single-season record his team has now tied. While Kerr wasn't actively coaching the team the first half of the season, I think in-game coaching tends to be overrated relative to the things Kerr still controlled in terms of building a winning culture and managing success.
Clifford oversaw the Hornets' successful transition from an interior-minded team to one that went small and spaced the floor without sacrificing anything defensively. And I think Budenholzer may have done a better job of coaching than he did when he won the award last season, since there were more setbacks to manage this time around. The Hawks built the league's second-best defense without any elite individual defenders.
Executive of the year*
1. R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs
2. Neil Olshey, Portland Trail Blazers
3. Masai Ujiri, Toronto Raptors
Years of careful cap planning culminated in the Spurs being able to land the top free agent to change teams (LaMarcus Aldridge) while sacrificing only center Tiago Splitter.
The team that lost Aldridge, Portland, stayed in the playoffs thanks to cheaper replacements for Aldridge and three other departed starters. While head coach Terry Stotts deserves much of the credit for developing young talent, statistical projections showed the Blazers would be more competitive than most observers expected.
Ujiri beats out Rich Cho of the Charlotte Hornets and Tim Connelly of the Denver Nuggets for the third spot by virtue of rebuilding the Raptors' bench. Even though Toronto's marquee addition (DeMarre Carroll) missed much of the season due to injury, the Raptors are still second in the East because newcomers Cory Joseph and Bismack Biyombo have proved to be an upgrade on a second unit that included last year's Sixth Man Award winner (Lou Williams).
*Voted by fellow executives