Ranking Lillard, Brow and the top 10 NBA 'seniors' by future potential

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton extend their series on draft prospects, rookies and sophomores to break down NBA "seniors" -- emerging players who entered the league in 2012.

Pelton: Chad, we've had a lot of fun ranking recent rookie classes by potential -- ranking freshmen, sophomores and juniors -- so how about we wrap up this series with the "seniors," fourth-year players? (I assume we're wrapping up here since we've run out of college classes unless we do "redshirt seniors.")

Beyond the consensus top pick, I'm not sure the 2012 draft was considered a particularly strong one. However, it produced three All-Stars this season -- a number that doesn't count the Portland Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard, who would surely make the Western Conference All-Star team if coaches re-voted today.

Still, for all that talent, there's no doubt that No. 1 overall pick Anthony Davis has the best long-term outlook of any fourth-year player. Yes, Davis has taken a bit of a step back after preseason hype suggested he'd be a serious MVP contender. I'm also beginning to question whether Davis will live up to the elite defensive potential he showed at Kentucky.

But this season has highlighted the weakest aspects of Davis' developing game. When he has had the chance to play with a real point guard (Jrue Holiday), his numbers have been elite. And we saw just how dominant Davis can be in his 59-point game at Detroit in February.

Above and beyond that, the most important number for Davis is his age: 23 as of this Friday. There's still a former teammate from the same recruiting class as Davis (Kyle Wiltjer, who transferred to Gonzaga) playing college hoops. Davis has years left until he reaches his peak, and given that he has already been an All-NBA First Teamer and an All-Star three times, that peak figures to make Davis one of the best players in the league.

Ford: Yeah, Davis is a once-in-a-decade prospect. NBA scouts knew it since he left college, and I think he has more than lived up to the hype overall.

He has been a little disappointing this year, but it's only in the context of so many of us (me included) thinking he had the chance to be the best player in the NBA this year. Steph Curry is the undisputed best player right now, and LeBron James and Kevin Durant are both still ahead of Davis. But as you point out, at 23, I don't think there's any question Davis has the potential to still reach that pinnacle.

I think the next step will be getting Davis a different supporting cast in New Orleans. I like Alvin Gentry as his coach, but the Pelicans management hasn't really added the right sort of talent around him. It's hard to be great when the rest of your teammates don't have it in them to match or complement that greatness.

With the possible exception of Holiday, Davis really doesn't have anyone on the team who can credibly help him carry the load. The Pelicans need to get very aggressive this summer in giving him a better supporting cast if Davis is going to rise to the next level.

Who's No. 2 on your board, Kevin?

Pelton: After Davis, the choices get brutally difficult. Of the three great candidates for the second spot, I'm going to take a player who went in the second round in 2012: Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors. Hopefully, by this point, we've squelched any notion that Green is a product of the Warriors' system.

As his performance in Stephen Curry's absence last week proved again, Green's versatility would help any team win games. How many other players in the league can both defend centers and run an offense?

Right now, I think Green is one of the league's 10 best players. So while this might be the peak for Green, who recently turned 26, I'm not sure anyone in this class will reach that level.

Who do you like second, Chad?

Ford: Hard for me to vote against Green, though I disagree with you a bit about him not being a product of the Warriors' system.

He slid to the second round in part because he didn't tick off the boxes that most NBA scouting departments value. Green didn't have elite size or athleticism for his position. He didn't have any particular elite skills other than perhaps work ethic and basketball IQ. Even Golden State passed on him at No. 30 to draft Festus Ezeli.

However, the way the Warriors played gave Green a chance to show what he could do. I don't know if he would've ever gotten a real chance on most NBA teams. Getting a chance and being put in a position where you can succeed is critical to virtually every player not named LeBron or Durant.

Fit can be everything and Green was the perfect fit for Golden State. He has since proven that his skill set is so potent that he could help any team. But I'm not sure he ever would've gotten the chance to show it on other teams.

This is a good time to point out to agents and draft prospects that they should be less obsessed with how high they go in the draft and more concerned about fit. Opportunity is everything in the NBA and Green has made the most of it.

I still doubt, if the 2012 NBA Draft were re-held today, that Green would go No. 2 ahead of Andre Drummond or Lillard. The NBA is stubborn that way. But he would deserve to go No. 2.

So who do you have next Kevin, the big guy or the little guy?

Pelton: I'm going with the guard. Over the past month, Lillard has carried the Blazers in a way I'm not certain Drummond will ever be able to do for his team.

That's not a knock on Drummond -- it's an indication of how good Lillard has become offensively. Per Basketball Reference research, there are five players in the NBA who have used at least 30 percent of their team's plays with an above-average true shooting percentage and at least six assists per 36 minutes: Lillard, Curry, James Harden, LeBron and Russell Westbrook. That's impressive company.

Where do you side in this debate, Chad?

Ford: Well, this isn't turning into much of debate. I also have Lillard No. 3 for the same reasons you do. He's a warrior -- an unbelievable scorer with a crazy drive to compete.

His workout in Oakland before the 2012 draft was the single greatest pre-draft workout I've ever seen. It was relentless. His trainer was killing him. Lillard was grunting and grinding like his life depended on it.

Afterwards, we all walked away thinking, "This guy is so hungry, working so hard and he's so talented. How does he fail?"

Sometimes the workout process is really misleading. But in this case, the guy who killed that workout in Oakland has been the same guy playing for the Blazers the past few years. I love players with Lillard's toughness and will to win. I almost put him ahead of Draymond because of it. He's really, really close to No. 2 for me.

So is it Drummond at No. 4 or do you have a surprise for us, Kevin?

Pelton: No, no surprise here. Drummond is even younger than Davis; he won't turn 23 until August. Had Drummond not chosen to reclassify and enter UConn a year early, his graduating class would still be seniors in college right now.

Yet Drummond is already an All-Star and likely to be a fixture in the All-Star Game. While Drummond's box-score stats may not improve much and his rebounding is likely to decline since it peaks at an early age, more experience should make him a better defensive anchor in the paint and help the Pistons win.

I assume we're going to be 4-for-4 on matching?

Ford: Yes, sir. Drummond was the consensus No. 2 pick in the draft heading into his freshman season at UConn. He was pretty awful for UConn -- especially when you consider his skill set, athleticism and body. How Drummond didn't dominate more as a Huskie is still a mystery.

He terrified scouts before the draft. Everyone wanted to love him, but his production was so poor, it was hard to take a risk. The Cavs, Kings and Warriors all looked really hard at him before ultimately passing for Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes, respectively. Barnes was the most justifiable of the picks. He too was once considered a No. 1 prospect.

That goes to show you that sometimes even college stats can be misleading. (Fun story: Before the draft, Drummond told me he was modeling his game after Kevin Durant. I thought he misspoke and said Kevin Garnett, and he corrected me and told me it was Durant. That's when I got nervous.)

Drummond has really been a factor since Day 1. And while he's limited offensively, he's so dominant defensively that he's going to have a long, impactful career.

Well, now I think we have a chance to start disagreeing. For me, it starts getting more complicated after those four are off the board. Who's No. 5 for you, Kevin?

Pelton: To me, there are two candidates for the last spot with relatively similar 3-and-D skill sets: Jae Crowder of the Boston Celtics and Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks. Both are favorites of ESPN's real plus-minus.

Ultimately, I think Crowder is the better player right now, although I'd lean toward Middleton because he's a year younger and has demonstrated more offensive upside with his ability to create his own shot. Whichever you prefer, both second-round picks have established themselves as quality starters at a spot where virtually every NBA team is looking to add depth.

Where are you going next?

Ford: I see your point with both, but it's hard for me not to put Bradley Beal here.

I know he has had injury troubles. I know he can frustratingly rely on long 2-point jumpers instead of stepping back for 3s or attacking the basket. But he's just 22 years old, he's an elite shooter and I think he still has time to develop the other areas of his game that could make him a star.

I'm hoping with the Wizards' implosion this year, Beal will get a new head coach who can continue to develop him, because I think the talent is still there for him to be better than both Crowder and Middleton.

OK, that's our top five. Who are your next five, Kevin?

Pelton: Given the possibility that Beal might never be able to avoid a minutes limitation due to his recurrent stress injuries, I can't put him ahead of Crowder and Middleton, two guys who are more productive than he is right now.

6. Jae Crowder
7. Bradley Beal
8. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
9. Jonas Valanciunas
10. Harrison Barnes

Injuries have also derailed the career of No. 2 overall pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but during the brief period he was healthy this year, Kidd-Gilchrist was a difference-maker, as RPM says he was last season.

Valanciunas has developed into a solid starting center, and I still think he'd have a bigger offensive impact in an offense that was less guard-centric.

Lastly, I was tempted to put former teammate Kent Bazemore ahead of Barnes, but Barnes' ability to capably play both forward spots earns him the final spot on my list.

Ford: I've got ...

6. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
7. Khris Middleton
8. Harrison Barnes
9. Jonas Valanciunas
10. Jae Crowder

I have always loved Kidd-Gilchrist. He's a no-stats difference-maker who doesn't turn 23 until mid-September. He started to develop a jump shot this year, and if he can bounce back from shoulder surgery and add a credible jump shot to his game, I still think he could be an All-Star someday.

I wonder if Barnes would have a bigger impact on a team in which he wasn't the fourth to fifth wheel offensively. I still really love his game, and if we put Barnes on the Bucks, would he put up similar numbers?

I agree with your assessment on Valanciunas. He's a bit limited by the way the Raptors play.

And I love Crowder, really, but still see a higher ceiling for the other guys on the list.