Ranking Wiggins, Parker and the top 10 sophs by future potential

For the past several years, ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton have simulated the kind of discussions that are taking place in front offices around the NBA -- in which scouts and statistical experts break down NBA prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers." This season, those conversations are extending beyond the NBA draft to include prospects in their rookie or sophomore seasons.

Which NBA sophomore has the most potential?

Kevin Pelton: Earlier this week, we ranked rookies based on their long-term potential (and touched a few nerves in the process). This time around, let's try doing the same thing with second-year players.

Even though we have a much longer NBA track record to go on, I'm not sure this is any easier. In part because of the injuries that plagued this class as rookies, there are still serious questions about basically every prospect and little separation between them.

That includes my No. 1 pick, Andrew Wiggins. We spent 1,500 words hashing out where Wiggins has excelled and where he needs improvement a couple of weeks ago, so I won't repeat myself here. But whatever you think of Wiggins, it's pretty clear he's the best player from his draft class. Right, Chad?

Chad Ford: You are right on both counts. NBA scouts and execs were very, very high on the draft class of 2014, as was I. So far, primarily because of injuries to many of the top prospects, it has been a disappointment.

And you're right, Wiggins is clearly the No. 1 guy now. As we discussed in the Wiggins edition of Ford-Pelton, he still has major weaknesses. He needs to improve his jump shot and show more as a defender.

But he's a top-20 scorer in the NBA as a sophomore with elite athletic tools. I think he'll only get better.

After Wiggins, however, it's sort of a crap shoot. I felt as though rookies No. 3 through 10 could've been ranked in almost any order in our last piece. I have the same feeling about sophomores No. 2 through 10.

That said, whom do you have at No. 2?

Second-best soph

Pelton: The week of the 2014 draft, I wrote about two prospects in particular. I called Wiggins overrated (the jury is still out, but that projection is not looking so good) and Clint Capela underrated.

One out of two is pretty good, right?

Capela ended up going 25th to the Houston Rockets, but after a year spent mostly in the D-League, he was a contributor off the bench in the playoffs and has carried that over so far this season. As I noted a few weeks ago, his per-minute averages put him in elite company among 21-year-old big men. I'm not sure how much Capela can improve but, like Andre Drummond, his defensive instincts catch up to his athleticism.

Who's No. 2 for you?

Ford: It's pretty hard to argue with Capela at No. 2 based on his production this season. He has the second-highest PER of any of the top sophomores.

He's in my top five, but I think several prospects, once they get healthy, will ultimately prove to be more valuable than Capela. Because we are talking about not just past production, but future potential as well, my choice is Jabari Parker.

An ACL injury likely kept him from winning Rookie of the Year honors. He's miscast in Milwaukee as a power forward in my opinion, but he has the makings of a very, very good offensive player.

Defense? That's a major issue, but it seems like you get one or the other with most of these sophomores, not both.

Pelton: It's so tough to evaluate Parker coming off his torn ACL because it's unclear how much of his step back this season is temporary and what might represent athleticism was lost to the injury. So I might be underrating him, but I'm concerned that Parker hasn't made a 3 all year and he already looks like a poor defender at power forward. As a result, he's much lower on my list.

Another Wolf at No. 3

Pelton: My No. 3 is a player I wasn't particularly high on last season: Zach LaVine. When I went through his numbers for my data dialogue with LaVine during summer league, it became clear that he was merely out of position at point guard. Well, LaVine is still playing the point, but he has become such a devastating scorer that it almost doesn't matter.

Only his teammate Wiggins (21.5) is averaging more points per 36 minutes than LaVine (21.1), and LaVine is the slightly more efficient shooter of the two players.

Ford: I hear you on Jabari. I have all the same concerns. But I'm assuming he gets 100 percent healthy and eventually the Bucks give him more of a role on the perimeter.

I'm also super high on LaVine and have him No. 3 on my list as well. The concern, coming into the draft, was that he was, while a tremendous athlete, very raw. At UCLA, he didn't show much basketball IQ and his production was incredibly uneven.

But with his size, athleticism (witness his winning 2015 dunk contest performance) and skill set, he can be dominant. Seeing him this season, I'm becoming more and more confident that he can hit his ceiling, which is pretty high. His commitment to working on his game -- he's a major gym rat -- contributes to my bullishness about his future.

It would be pretty crazy if the Wolves ended up with two of the three top prospects in the 2014 draft.

Who's No. 4 on your list, Kevin?

Two point guards at No. 4

Pelton: I have Elfrid Payton of the Orlando Magic fourth. I still have concerns about Payton's shooting, which doesn't seem to have improved much this season: He has made two 3-pointers and is below 60 percent from the foul line in December.

However, I think that's survivable for a point guard who brings other quality skills to the table, and Payton has shown promise as a distributor and defender. Point guards also tend to develop later than players at other positions, so Payton's age (22) is something of a positive.

What do you think, Chad?

Ford: I really like Payton. I still really like Marcus Smart, too. But to me, the guy with the most potential at the point guard spot from the 2014 class is Dante Exum.

If we really were conducting a draft, this would be a controversial pick. Exum had a quiet rookie season and then tore the ACL in his left knee in August, putting him in rehab for his entire sophomore season.

But I remain very high on Exum. During his rookie campaign, when he was 19, his offensive game was limited to spot-up shooting, not his forte. In summer league, he looked much more aggressive attacking the basket (before his injury later in the summer).

There are question marks about his missing a key developmental year, lack of a jumper and passivity on the court, but I know the Jazz remain very high on him, and I think he still has All-Star potential down the road.

Given how poor his numbers were as a rookie, I'm pretty sure you're going to disagree here.

Pelton: For all the reasons you mentioned, Exum was probably the hardest player for me to rank. Because of his defense, I do think he was helpful as a rookie in a way his individual numbers don't reflect. However, not only have we not gotten to see his improvement on the court, it's possible his development has been stalled by the injury. So I don't have Exum in my top 10.

The fifth soph

Pelton: Instead, at No. 5, I have the third point guard you mentioned, Smart. Before the season, I probably would have had Smart second after Wiggins. He was an excellent defender for a rookie, and ultimately I think his athleticism is going to convert into offensive results. That hasn't happened yet in part because of injuries.

But Smart's ability to stay healthy playing his frenetic style is something of a long-term concern, and his shot selection remains abysmal. So he drops to the fifth spot on my list.

Ford: Yeah, I was a big Smart fan before the draft and I remain one. He was an elite defender as a rookie and a terrible offensive player. I'm not sure he'll ever be a great passer or shooter. But Smart plays so hard and with so much competitiveness, I think he'll keep working until he's a strong offensive player.

I have Capela at No. 5. He's an interesting case study in not putting too much value on one pre-draft performance. Capela came into the Nike Hoop Summit ranked No. 11 on our Big Board. He struggled in the practices and the game in front of a gaggle of scouts and GMs. By draft night, he had slid to No. 27 on my board, which is based on what I'm hearing from people in the NBA.

Clearly your numbers and the pre-Hoop Summit evaluation of his talents were better gauges of his ability, and even No. 11 now seems too low. Kevin, we should have listened to you!

Whom do you have from 6 to 10, Kevin?

Ranking the rest

Pelton: My next five:

6. Jusuf Nurkic

7. Aaron Gordon

8. Nerlens Noel

9. Nikola Mirotic

10. Jabari Parker

Nurkic was one of last year's most productive rookies at age 20, but I'd like to see how he recovers from offseason patella surgery before putting him in the top five.

Gordon was maybe the toughest exclusion from the top five, because he has been terrific any time he has played this season and is still just 20. His upside might be higher than that of anyone outside the top three.

Noel was easily top five in this category last year, and the way he has played at center, particularly with Ish Smith, suggests his regression this season might primarily be about fit.

Mirotic is the oldest player on the list at 25, and at some point he's going to have to make 3s at a league-average rate so teams keep defending him beyond the arc. But Mirotic is still second in this group behind Capela in both WARP and RPM wins.

Who else do you have, Chad?

Ford: My next five:

6. Marcus Smart

7. Elfrid Payton

8. Nerlens Noel

9. Aaron Gordon

10. Nikola Mirotic

I think we are fairly close to agreement. To me, as I said at the beginning, the gap between 2 and 10 is pretty small.

I could make an argument for Smart, Payton, Noel, Gordon and Mirotic in the top five. Of the group, I agree that Gordon has the most upside, though it's still hard to say exactly what he's going to be. Noel intrigues me as well, especially if the Sixers eventually move Jahlil Okafor.

The 2014 draft class (plus Noel) still has a lot of promise. I didn't include Nurkic, in part because I wonder, given the evolution of the center position, whether he's a great long-term fit. I also passed on Julius Randle, T.J. Warren, Gary Harris and Jordan Clarkson. There's potential depth from this draft.

The missing man: Joel Embiid

Ford: I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Joel Embiid, a guy who likely would've gone No. 1 had he not gotten injured prior to the draft. It's impossible to rank him right now given the fact he is sitting out his second consecutive season because of injury. No one really knows what the future holds for him.

But if he can get healthy, and if his development curve hasn't been irrevocably harmed by his lack of playing time, he still has the physical tools to be a dominant NBA player.

Pelton: Yeah, if anything, this exercise made me feel better about the 76ers' decision to draft Embiid at No. 3 in 2014. I had him much lower than third on my draft board because my research on navicular fractures for big men suggested a high chance of recurrence.

But Embiid was my No. 1 prospect before the injury, and at this point, it doesn't appear Philadelphia passed on any likely stars to draft him.