The Houston Rockets will become the latest team to give 2008 No. 2 overall pick Michael Beasley a chance to salvage his NBA career. According to ESPN's Marc Stein, the Rockets plan to sign Beasley to a contract for the veterans minimum for the remainder of this season with the option to bring him back at a similar salary in 2016-17.
Can Beasley help the Rockets? And what, if anything, can we glean from him winning MVP honors with Shandong High Speed Golden Stars in the Chinese Basketball Association this season? Let's take a look.
Translations take air out of CBA stats
Beasley won the MVP on the strength of averaging 31.9 points and 13.2 rebounds in China, numbers that haven't been seen in the NBA on a regular basis since the 1970s. According to Basketball-Reference.com, just one NBA player in the past three decades (Karl Malone in 1989-90) has averaged at least 30 and 10.
If your first instinct is to be skeptical, you're wise. CBA stats are inflated for a variety of reasons. Because just two non-Asian (read: American) players are allowed per team, stars like Beasley tend to log heavy minute totals (he averaged 36.5 per game this season, down from last year's 38.1) and carry heavy offensive loads. Beasley finished an estimated 37.6 percent of Shandong's plays, which would be one of the highest marks in NBA history.
By comparing the performance in both leagues of players who go back and forth between the NBA and CBA, my translations take the air out of these inflated statistics. When adjusted to NBA standards, Beasley averaged the equivalent of 18.1 points and 9.4 rebounds per 36 minutes -- only slightly better than his career NBA marks of 19.0 points and 7.4 boards per 36.
On the plus side, Beasley was more effective in 2015-16 than his first season in China. His dominant defensive rebounding (equivalent to grabbing 23.2 percent of available defensive rebounds, very good for a power forward) and ability to score efficiently with such a high usage mean Beasley's overall translated performance rates better than the average NBA player. So there is some justification for giving him another shot in the league.
Beasley doesn't fix Rockets' problems
The fit in Houston, however, doesn't seem good. Beasley is a talented, left-handed combo forward whose perimeter shooting and defensive intensity come and go.
If that description sounds familiar, it's because the Rockets already have two players who meet a similar broad outline: Terrence Jones and Josh Smith. (Donatas Motiejunas gives Houston four lefties in the frontcourt, and the Rockets could now put out an all-southpaw lineup with James Harden at the point.)
Houston cleared space for Beasley and Andrew Goudelock (who also played this season in China, producing impressive 3-point shooting but little else) by waiving guard Marcus Thornton and agreeing to a buyout deal with point guard Ty Lawson. Their departures leave an opening on the perimeter for Goudelock, but if anything, the Rockets' frontcourt is even more crowded now that Motiejunas has returned from a back injury.
As a result, Beasley will probably have to play small forward to get on the court for Houston this season. Playing on the perimeter highlights Beasley's weakest skills, like his tendency to take long 2-pointers off the dribble, and minimizes the value of his rebounding.
It's also safe to say that Beasley doesn't add anything the Rockets really need to turn around their disappointing season. Houston's weakness all season has been defense, and aside from a high-effort second half in a comeback last Thursday in Portland, that hasn't been getting better.
The Rockets gave up 128 points Monday in Milwaukee, allowing the Bucks to shoot 64.2 percent from the field.
Houston could've added an active perimeter defender like Elijah Millsap to add energy to the second unit. That's not Beasley's reputation or NBA track record.
Rockets looking ahead
This move means Houston is looking ahead to 2016-17. Jones and Motiejunas will be restricted free agents while Smith is unrestricted. They'll almost certainly be joined on the market by center Dwight Howard, who can opt for free agency. The Rockets' frontcourt could have a completely different look by next November, and perhaps Beasley can fit into the mix then.
After all, as bad as Beasley's reputation might be, he did play a rotation role on a Miami Heat team that reached the NBA Finals just two years ago, shooting better than 50 percent on 2-point attempts and 39 percent from 3-point range, albeit on just 54 attempts. Now 27, Beasley should in theory be at his apex as a player, and his performance in China offers some hope he has expanded his all-around game.
From a financial standpoint, there's more upside than downside for Houston. Presumably, Beasley's 2016-17 salary is non-guaranteed, giving the Rockets a chance to look at him without any long-term risk.
Instead, the real gamble is adding another talented player who wants the ball in a team that's already dealt with chemistry problems. Beasley is a potential headache for J.B. Bickerstaff as the coach tries to steer Houston to the playoffs. In order to have this move pay off next season, Houston must survive the last two months of 2015-16 first.