Sometimes it feels like the Warriors' historic run is the only story worth discussing. But with Golden State at just 50/50 to win the title, according to betting markets, there is much to be decided.
Let's look at the most important playoff races in terms of how they affect the title chase -- and predict the winners in each.
With the help of projections from simulations using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), I have ranked (and forecasted) five races to the postseason in terms of their influence on who ends up hoisting the trophy in June -- starting, of course, with the Warriors and the top seed in the West.
1. First place in the West
Before Golden State can worry about setting the record with 73 or more wins, the Warriors first have to secure home-court advantage throughout the postseason. As incredible a pace as Golden State is on, San Antonio has managed to stay close in the rearview mirror.
BPI projects the Spurs to win 68 games, a historic feat, and still "lose" this race by five games. Amazing.
The Spurs are four games back currently, and though that's a lot of ground to make up on a team that seemingly never loses, San Antonio has three head-to-head matchups with Golden State remaining.
Ultimately, the biggest problem for the Spurs is how favorable the Warriors' remaining schedule is. Having gotten through a six-game road trip to start the second half, Golden State now has 17 of its final 24 games at home -- where the Warriors haven't lost a regular-season game in 13 months and counting.
Most likely to finish first: Golden State Warriors
2. Third place in the West
While everyone was distracted by Blake Griffin's fight and Chuck the Condor, the Clippers have quietly moved within striking distance of Oklahoma City for third place in the West.
A win in Wednesday's matchup at Staples Center (ESPN/WatchESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET) would close the gap between the two teams to a game and a half, with the Clippers just one game back in the loss column. BPI simulations give the Clippers about the same chance of catching the Thunder as DeAndre Jordan has of making both free throws when he goes to the line (18 percent).
An Oklahoma City win in L.A., however, would effectively end the race. The Thunder would then be 2.5 games up and all but assured the head-to-head tiebreaker with both remaining matchups in Oklahoma City (a week from Wednesday and March 31).
Most likely to finish third: Oklahoma City Thunder
3. First place in the East
With their win Friday in Toronto, the Raptors closed the gap with the Cavaliers to 2.5 games.
If Cleveland continues to stumble against lesser foes -- they have lost to the Pistons at home and on the road to the Wizards (without a resting LeBron James) since the All-Star break -- Toronto is in position to make a run at the top seed in the East. Alas, the Raptors missed an opportunity to get even closer Sunday, when they too lost to Detroit without their own star, Kyle Lowry, who sat out to rest.
Ultimately, this race doesn't rank higher because I'm not sure it matters to the Cavaliers where they're seeded. Remember, James' teams have won the East with the second seed the past two seasons (and four of the past five, dating back to 2010-11) and took the Eastern Conference finals without home-court advantage. BPI projections show home court in a potential conference finals matchup between these two teams improves Toronto's chances of winning by just 9 percent.
Most likely to finish first: Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Last five playoff spots in the East
The real incentive for the Raptors to finish first in the East might be avoiding a potentially tricky matchup with the Boston Celtics in the conference semifinals.
Although the Celtics aren't yet locked into the third seed, they're the only other East team that is comfortably in the playoffs, according to BPI simulations. The rest of the seeds are up for grabs, with just 2.5 games separating fourth from ninth in the East.
Because of that logjam, the way things play out will determine the matchups for the top seed in the first two rounds. Unclear right now is which teams the East's elite would rather play and avoid. Miami is in flux with the loss of Chris Bosh and arrival of Joe Johnson, Atlanta has slumped since keeping the team together at the trade deadline, and the Hawks and the Pacers (currently eighth in the standings) are the two best teams of this group by BPI because of their superior point differentials.
As for the eighth seed, BPI makes the Pistons a slight favorite over the Bulls, though both teams have better than 50-50 chances of reaching the postseason because of the possibility of another team sliding out. BPI probably underestimates Chicago's chances if Jimmy Butler can return this week. The Bulls have gone 4-7 in his absence and I'd give a healthy Chicago team better odds than Detroit.
Most likely to make playoffs: Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons
5. Last three playoff spots in the West
With the Memphis Grizzlies likely safely above the fray (they make the playoffs in 99.4 percent of BPI simulations, though that doesn't account for the absence of injured centers Marc Gasol and Brandan Wright), it looks like a four-team race for the last three spots in the West.
Wins over the weekend at Chicago and Indiana have given the surging Blazers the best playoff chances of the group, with the Mavericks just behind.
There's still time for the Rockets and Jazz to bump one of those teams and claim playoff spots, but they'll need to start playing better. Houston's second-half surge to come back Thursday in Portland hasn't carried over, and allowing 128 points to the Milwaukee Bucks in a loss Tuesday was an indictment of the Rockets' defense.
However, Houston is still eighth with a below-.500 record because Utah has lost three of four games since the break decided by five points or fewer. That includes a home loss to the lowly Brooklyn Nets, which could ultimately make the difference between the playoffs and sitting at home.
Nonetheless, I'd give the Jazz the upper hand in the race for eighth because their effort level has been so much more consistent than that of the flaky Rockets.
Alas, this race probably matters only to the teams involved. It's unlikely anyone from this group will knock off one of the West's top four teams.
Most likely to make playoffs: Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz