Seven most surprising NBA rookies

For the past several years, ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton have simulated the kind of discussions that are taking place in front offices around the NBA -- in which scouts and statistical experts break down NBA prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers." This season, those conversations are extending beyond the NBA draft to include prospects in their rookie or sophomore seasons.

Ford: A month or so ago, we ranked the top 10 rookies. All but one -- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -- were lottery picks and three of our top five (Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis and D'Angelo Russell) were among the 2015 draft's first five picks.

Let's try something different today. Who are the most surprising rookies so far this season -- players who might have been underrated on draft night?

To me, Myles Turner tops that list. He was considered a top-3 pick before the college basketball season and showed flashes of brilliance against weaker teams, but he really struggled against elite teams. His awkward gait and his inconsistency hurt his draft stock. But in retrospect, he looks like the perfect sort of shot-blocking stretch-4 or stretch-5 the league covets.

He rebounds, he's already looking like a potentially elite shot blocker and a 31-point outburst against the Warriors followed a few nights later with a 25-point game against the Nuggets showed what he can do offensively.

I ranked him No. 6 in our last rookie rank. But given his play lately, it's looking to me as if he should've gone No. 3 behind Towns and Porzingis.

Who do you have, Kevin?

Pelton: Wait, wait, what do you mean in retrospect? I think a lot of what Turner is doing this season was fairly predictable from his advanced stats in college, which is why he was sixth in my consensus projections.

As well as Turner has played so far, what's really exciting to me is how valuable he could be when he turns the long 2s he's making at a terrific clip (45.1 percent on 2-pointers from beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com) into 3s. Look out then.

My nominee would be another versatile big man, Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. Jokic had impressive translated stats in Europe, but I was a little skeptical about his ability to produce at that level right away in the NBA because of scouts' concerns about his athleticism.

It's safe to say we can put those to rest, at least offensively. Jokic is making 56.5 percent of his 2-point attempts and averaging a remarkable 3.5 assists per 36 minutes -- the most of any non-point guard in this year's rookie class. Jokic's creative ballhandling and passing have resulted in plenty of highlights.

What have you seen from him?

Ford: Jokic is another surprise, though I did like him when he was drafted.

I think one of the challenges and adjustments that needs to take place in the scouting world is obsessively worrying about athleticism when it comes to skilled big men. It matters much more for guards and wings.

But we have a number of examples of big men succeeding in the NBA with average to below-average athleticism, especially offensively. And while ideally you want bigs who are both skilled and athletic, they don't come along very often. They are Kevin Durant's proverbial unicorns -- like Porzingis.

I think Jokic has a long future in the NBA, and it probably bodes well for several other bigs in the upcoming draft who have lower draft stock than their production suggests they should.

Another guy who made both of our top-10 lists last time is Hollis-Jefferson. He has been injured for the past two months, but before he went down with a right ankle injury, he looked as if he should have gone in the lottery.

In a league obsessed with wings and guards who shoot the ball, what is it about Hollis-Jefferson that has made him so successful? It certainly isn't shooting.

Pelton: There always has been a place in the league for wings who can compensate for their poor shooting by excelling at the other end of the court. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has filled that role in Charlotte, and Al-Farouq Aminu has carved out a nice career for himself. Hollis-Jefferson had started to establish himself in that class.

His defensive real plus-minus (RPM) ranks among the top 10 wings, and that's consistent with his reputation coming out of Arizona. Hollis-Jefferson can guard multiple positions and has been a presence on the glass, which suggests a nice career in front of him even if he never develops into a capable outside shooter.

My next candidate is someone who wasn't drafted at all last June: T.J. McConnell. When McConnell started at point guard for the Philadelphia 76ers early in the season, it was treated as something of a joke -- an example of how embarrassing the Sixers were as a franchise.

However, Philadelphia consistently played better with McConnell on the court, something that has remained true after the arrival of Ish Smith pushed McConnell to a more appropriate reserve role.

In fact, the 76ers have actually outscored opponents by 0.3 points per 100 possessions with McConnell on the court since the Smith trade. Per NBA.com/Stats, he's the only Philadelphia player who can make that claim. How did everyone miss on McConnell, Chad?

Ford: I certainly didn't see this coming. I watched Arizona a number of times and felt his age and lack of length and elite athleticism for his position, combined with his mediocre shooting numbers, made him likely to go undrafted. And indeed, he was not drafted, reflecting a general indifference that scouts had toward him.

I'm still not sold that he's anything more than a high character backup in the NBA -- but I've been wrong on the guy for years.

There's another point guard that I think was probably underdrafted: Cameron Payne. Scouts really warmed up to him as we got closer to the draft, and he was heavily in the mix to be selected by the Pacers at No. 11 before Turner fell to them.

I think he's looking more and more like a steal for the Thunder. His combination of basketball IQ, quickness and 3-point shooting gives him a great chance of being a good starting point guard in the league down the road.

What do you think of Payne, Kevin?

Pelton: Given how solid the players drafted in front of him have been, I'm not sure Payne should have gone higher, but he's certainly part of the great depth the 2015 draft has already demonstrated.

There was no question about Payne's ability to run the pick-and-roll and be a threat as both a scorer and a distributor. What has surprised me is the 3-point shooting you mentioned.

Payne is shooting better from the NBA 3-point line (39.7 percent) than he did from the shorter college line last season (37.7 percent). He has attempted only 68 shots, so we'll have to keep monitoring his accuracy, but if Payne is this kind of shooter, he might be able to finish games alongside Russell Westbrook. That would be huge for Oklahoma City.

Let's wrap things up by talking about a pair of Kentucky players who went in the late lottery and have contributed ahead of schedule. This figured to be a development year for Trey Lyles before injuries to Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert thrust him into the starting lineup.

Lyles grew into the role in January, shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 46.4 percent from beyond the arc. With Favors and Gobert back, he won't get as much experience going forward, but he has shown flashes of developing into a power forward who can stretch the floor with both his shooting and his playmaking.

Devin Booker went one pick after Lyles and also has received unexpected opportunity because of injuries. In Booker's case, with Eric Bledsoe out for the season, he's likely to stay in the starting lineup for the duration.

Booker hasn't kept up his 50 percent 3-point shooting from the first two months, when he was more selective. But he has done a better job as a starter of hunting 3-point attempts, which will make him a bigger contributor going forward. He also has shown more ability to create his own shot off the dribble than he did as strictly a spot-up shooter at Kentucky.

Mouse over bars for leaders; click 3P% and 3PA to change chart

Chad, did playing with so much talent lead teams to underestimate Booker and Lyles?

Ford: Yes, I think the roles they played at Kentucky made it a little more difficult for scouts to get a great read. Not only did they play more limited minutes and with a ton of other talent, they also had their roles more narrowly defined than normal for such highly ranked players out of high school.

Lyles had the bigger issue. He played out of position all season for Kentucky, giving scouts little to go on film-wise to see how he'd make the transition to power forward. Right now, he's performing in a way that gives him a chance to hit his ceiling. I saw a little Juwan Howard in Lyles before the draft. And I think he could end up being that type of player in the pros.

Booker was drafted as a shooter and looked pretty one-dimensional at Kentucky. But his high basketball IQ probably went underrated. Booker sees the game, which allows him to be more of a playmaker than we ever saw in college.

I'm a little worried about Booker's poor RPM, however. He ranks 418th out of 439 players. We've dinged Jahlil Okafor and Emmanuel Mudiay for their low RPMs. Should we be giving Booker a pass?

Pelton: Definitely a valid question. Booker doesn't come out well by Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus (which tries to estimate adjusted plus-minus from box score stats) or my wins above replacement player (WARP) stat, either.

Some of the same issues that plagued his WARP projection coming out of Kentucky remain problematic. Despite good size for a shooting guard, Booker is a poor defensive rebounder, and his curious allergy to steals has carried over too.

That explains Booker's negative defensive ratings, but he also scores as fairly average offensively despite his high-percentage 3-point shooting. As comfortable as he has looked handling the ball, even running the offense with the Suns short on point guards, Booker's assist rate is below average for a shooting guard.

I have a hard time believing a shooter as good as Booker won't be a major offensive weapon. He's the youngest player in the league, having turned 19 early in the season, so he has time to develop. However, the discrepancy between how Booker is viewed and his all-in-one metrics may persist throughout his career.