Over the seven decades the NBA has existed, a lot has changed -- including even the name of the league, which originally incorporated as the Basketball Association of America (BAA). Differences in style of play, level of competition, rules and the addition of the 3-point line make it difficult for us to compare across eras for projects like ESPN's ongoing effort to pick the best NBA players of all-time using #NBArank voting.
One thing hasn't changed: the championship trophy for which all teams are competing. (OK, technically, that too has changed styles and names, but the concept is the same.) So in seeking to rank every player in NBA history statistically, my north star was how much they helped teams win championships.
The result is a metric, championships added, that incorporates both performance during the regular season and the postseason (using Basketball-Reference.com's win shares) and gives true stars more credit for their contributions than players who merely hung around. I also came up with the idea of valuing subjective honors such as All-Star appearances, All-NBA picks and MVP voting based on how well they translate to winning championships.
For more on the details, including what I found about how performance translates to championships, I wrote up a full description. If you just want the results, read on to find out how I've ranked the 40 best players in NBA history.
1. Michael Jordan
Championships added: 4.38
Regular season: 2.3 (2nd)
Playoffs: 1.7 (1st)
Awards: 3.0 (1st)
Evaluating the consensus GOAT (greatest of all time) is a good example of why I prefer rating players in terms of championships rather than simply career win shares. Because of his two retirements, Jordan ranks fourth in career win shares behind players with more games. But Jordan's best seasons gave the Chicago Bulls an overwhelming chance of winning a championship (as, of course, they did six times). So Jordan moves up to second strictly in the regular season, is tops in the playoffs and blows away the field with his five MVPs in a highly competitive era.
2. Wilt Chamberlain
Championships added: 4.16
Regular season: 3.1 (1st)
Playoffs: 1.6 (3rd)
Awards: 2.0 (6th)
Chamberlain's teams won only twice, but this method at the very least suggests Chamberlain should have gotten more trophies. Part of the issue, certainly, is that Chamberlain wasn't nearly as dominant in the playoffs as in the regular season, and a method that puts more weight on postseason success might have him lower.
3. LeBron James
Championships added: 3.86
Regular season: 1.9 (4th)
Playoffs: 1.6 (2nd)
Awards: 2.7 (3rd)
Just 10th in career win shares, James also comes out better in a method that gives more weight to his best seasons. Despite his teams winning fewer championships than this metric suggests they should have, James' playoff performance hasn't disappointed. Too often, as in the 2015 NBA Finals, he has been the best player on the court in a series his team lost because of limited contributions from teammates.
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Championships added: 3.85
Regular season: 2.2 (3rd)
Playoffs: 1.4 (5th)
Awards: 2.7 (2nd)
No. 1 by a wide margin in career win shares, Abdul-Jabbar doesn't benefit quite as much from the length of his career here. Since he was a secondary figure in most of the Showtime Lakers' championship runs, his playoff performance also doesn't quite match up to how he did in the regular season. Still, Abdul-Jabbar was third all-time before James passed him last season.
5. Bill Russell
Championships added: 2.98
Regular season: 1.1 (15th)
Playoffs: 1.6 (4th)
Awards: 1.7 (11th)
Russell never led the league in win shares during the regular season, so his rating there lags a bit. Of course, Russell wasn't playing for the regular season. He peaked in the playoffs, leading Boston to 11 championships -- or eight more than this method suggests his career would produce on average.
The Russell-Chamberlain comparison illustrates some of the limitations of this method, which is only as good as the underlying stats. As we know from the advent of SportVU data and metrics like ESPN's real plus-minus that incorporate how teams perform with players on and off the court, the box score misses much of the game. That's doubly true before the 1970s, when turnovers, blocked shots and steals weren't tracked.
Basketball-Reference.com has done a good job using what stats were available to estimate player value, and Russell appropriately comes out as the league's best defender by win shares in 11 of his 13 seasons. Still, it's tough to get a full picture of how those players rate, making championships added a starting point for discussion rather than a definitive ranking.
6. Tim Duncan
Championships added: 2.78
Regular season: 1.3 (10th)
Playoffs: 1.2 (6th)
Awards: 1.9 (7th)
Still a valuable part of one of the league's best teams at age 39, Duncan has an outside shot at surpassing Russell and moving into the all-time top five before he calls it a career.
7. Shaquille O'Neal
Championships added: 2.65
Regular season: 1.1 (13th)
Playoffs: 1.0 (10th)
Awards: 2.1 (5th)
Though O'Neal won just one MVP trophy, he gets credited here for finishing runner-up twice and third two other seasons. In hindsight, he probably deserved the trophy in both 2000-01 (when it went to Allen Iverson, with Duncan second) and 2004-05 (Steve Nash).
8. Magic Johnson
Championships added: 2.53
Regular season: 1.0 (18th)
Playoffs: 1.2 (7th)
Awards: 1.8 (10th)
While this method does a good job of emphasizing peak play, Johnson would certainly still rank higher had HIV not forced him into retirement. In his last full season, 1990-91, Magic added an estimated 0.23 championships -- the second-best season of his career by this measure.
9. Larry Bird
Championships added: 2.36
Regular season: 0.9 (23rd)
Playoffs: 0.8 (13th)
Awards: 2.3 (4th)
It's only fitting for Magic and Larry to finish next to each other on the all-time list. They got there in slightly different ways, however, with Bird deriving more benefit from the three times he won MVP -- and four others he finished second.
10. Karl Malone
Championships added: 2.33
Regular season: 1.7 (6th)
Playoffs: 0.5 (23rd)
Awards: 1.9 (8th)
Only Abdul-Jabbar racked up more career win shares than Malone did in his 19-year career, but because his best seasons weren't as good as those of other stars -- and especially because he tended not to come through in the same level during the postseason -- Malone slips to 10th on this list.
No. 11-15
11. Kobe Bryant (2.33 championships added)
12. George Mikan (2.25 championships added)
13. Jerry West (2.25 championships added)
14. Julius Erving (2.11 championships added)
15. Dirk Nowitzki (1.95 championships added)
I originally introduced a version of this metric to evaluate Bryant's career when he announced his retirement. At that point, playoff performance and awards weren't factored in, and both benefit Bryant. As a result, he has moved up to 11th -- though still outside the top 10.
Mikan is probably the most challenging player to rank. Despite adjusting for level of competition, he's fifth in championships added, and would rank in the top 10 if not for the fact that he never won MVP (because they didn't introduce it until after he retired). Still, given how quickly Mikan's play declined as the league improved in quality, this feels too high.
No. 16-20
16. Oscar Robertson (1.90 championships added)
17. David Robinson (1.77 championships added)
18. Kevin Garnett (1.70 championships added)
19. Hakeem Olajuwon (1.68 championships added)
20. Charles Barkley (1.65 championships added)
Robinson over Olajuwon is one of the metric's most contestable results. Advanced metrics loved the Admiral, at least during the regular season. Both Robinson (seventh) and Robertson (eighth) rank among the top 10 in championships added during the regular season. But both of them and Garnett had less impact in the playoffs, in which Olajuwon (16th) is far and away tops among this group. On regular-season performance alone, Olajuwon ranks 29th.
No. 21-25
21. Bob Pettit (1.62 championships added)
22. Moses Malone (1.58 championships added)
23. Dolph Schayes (1.56 championships added)
24. Kevin Durant (1.44 championships added)
25. John Stockton (1.43 championships added)
In general, the biggest discrepancies between championships added and #NBArank voting are for players from the 1950s. Schayes, who recently passed away at age 87, is a good example. Despite making the All-NBA First Team six times, he finished 74th in the voting. Pettit hasn't suffered as much because he won a pair of MVPs and defeated Russell's Celtics in the 1958 NBA Finals.
No. 26-30
26. Elgin Baylor (1.26 championships added)
27. Dwyane Wade (1.21 championships added)
28. Chris Paul (1.19 championships added)
29. Artis Gilmore (1.18 championships added)
30. Scottie Pippen (1.16 championships added)
Because the NBA officially considers the ABA part of its history after the merger, I included ABA stats. That boosts Gilmore, who won an MVP and a championships during five ABA seasons. Gilmore was still productive in the NBA, making six All-Star games after age 26, but he was not nearly so dominant. That's a big reason why he finished 70th in #NBArank.
No. 31-35
31. John Havlicek (1.11 championships added)
32. Bob Cousy (1.05 championships added)
33. Walt Frazier (1.03 championships added)
34. Jason Kidd (1.03 championships added)
35. Paul Arizin (1.01 championships added)
Cousy is one of the most interesting cases for championships added. In terms of regular-season performance, he's not in the top 100 all-time. But Cousy ranks 38th in playoff performance and 24th in terms of awards thanks to 10 All-NBA First Team selections and an MVP.
No. 36-40
36. Dwight Howard (1.01 championships added)
37. Reggie Miller (1.00 championships added)
38. Chauncey Billups (0.98 championships added)
39. Steve Nash (0.98 championships added)
40. Rick Barry (0.94 championships added)
Perhaps the most unlikely player in the top 40 is Billups, who finished 87th in voting. As a contemporary player, Billups -- who retired in 2014 and is now a studio analyst for ESPN -- is hardly comparable to overlooked veterans from decades ago or even someone like Gilmore whose best years came in the ABA.
So why does Billups rate so well? He had six seasons with 10-plus win shares, tying him for 34th all time, plus another in which he finished with 9.9. And Billups (aka "Mr. Big Shot") was even better in the postseason, ranking 20th in championships added in the playoffs for his contributions to the Detroit teams that got to the Finals in consecutive seasons and won the 2004 championships.