As the calendar turns to 2016, several NBA teams' fan bases have already turned their attention away from losing seasons and toward the upcoming NBA Draft. And LSU forward Ben Simmons is giving them reason to dream.
The freshman forward, who leads Chad Ford's Big Board, scored 36 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in his SEC debut on Saturday as the Tigers bounced back from a poor non-conference season to upset Vanderbilt.
So will Simmons soon join the Los Angeles Lakers, as he suggested on Snapchat last fall? Will he team up with a Boston Celtics core that might already make the playoffs thanks to their trade with the Brooklyn Nets? Or could he finally be the superstar the Philadelphia 76ers have spent the past three seasons pursuing?
With the help of ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projections, let's take a look at the current favorites to land the No. 1 pick -- and any key factors BPI might be missing.
1. Philadelphia 76ers (28.7 percent chance to get the No. 1 pick)
Because the Sixers are the league's worst team by BPI and already have four fewer wins than anyone else in the NBA, they are the overwhelming favorite to finish in the top spot entering the May 17 lottery. BPI simulations show Philadelphia winning the lottery 24.6 percent of the time -- nearly the maximum possible 25 percent chance for the team with the best lottery odds.
So why are the 76ers' chances of getting the No. 1 pick better than that? Well, remember that they acquired the right to swap picks with the Sacramento Kings in last summer's trade that helped the Kings clear cap space. It's a long shot, but BPI does show the Kings winning the lottery in 4.1 percent of simulations and subsequently handing Philadelphia the top pick. (The same would go for any pick, if Sacramento finishes the lottery with a better draft pick than Philadelphia.)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (19.9 percent)
Right now, BPI suggests the Lakers will very likely remain in the second spot headed into the lottery -- meaning they would have the second-best chance of winning the lottery and getting Simmons. They have four more wins than the Sixers but three fewer than anyone else in the league.
If they maintain their position, the Lakers would keep their pick -- protected in the top three -- a little more than half the time (55.6 percent, to be exact). However, if they don't stay in the top three when the lottery ping-pong balls are selected, they will send their pick to Philadelphia (via Phoenix) as part of the 2012 Steve Nash trade.
Could the Lakers "pass" the Sixers in these rankings and finish with an even better chance at Simmons? That looked possible a few days ago, with Philadelphia winning two of its first three games after acquiring point guard Ish Smith in a Christmas Eve trade. Alas, this weekend's back-to-back games at the Staples Center dealt the 76ers a dose of reality. After losing to the Lakers on New Year's Day, they got blown out by 31 points by the Clippers on Saturday night.
While Philadelphia figures to be more competitive the rest of the season, it's worth noting that when Smith was with the team last season, it had a slightly worse winning percentage in games he started (3-11, .214) as opposed to the rest of the season (15-53, .220). Smith might be an upgrade on the Sixers' incumbent point guards, but he's hardly a savior.
Though the Lakers have been nearly as bad as Philadelphia over the past month, a couple of other factors work against the Sixers (or for them, depending on your perspective). First, merely being as good as the Lakers won't be enough for Philly to finish ahead them in the standings given L.A.'s head start.
Second, while the Lakers have actually tended to get blown out slightly more often (they have three losses by 30-plus points to the Sixers' two), L.A. has been somewhat more inconsistent, leading to more victories between those lopsided losses.
3. Boston Celtics (14.2 percent, from Brooklyn Nets)
Only once in the past three decades has the No. 1 pick gone to a team that acquired it via previous trade. That came in 2011, when the Cleveland Cavaliers landed Kyrie Irving with a pick originally belonging to the Clippers.
History could repeat itself this season, since the Nets have no protection on the pick they sent to the Celtics as part of the exorbitant return for a package of players headlined by Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.
At the same time, the trade means Brooklyn has no incentive to lose games to improve its draft pick. So BPI might overstate the chances of the Nets finishing in the bottom three if they stay healthy.
The note about health is a key caveat, because the top-heavy Brooklyn roster is an injury away from true ineptitude. Specifically, losing center Brook Lopez would be devastating. The Nets have been outscored by 8.1 points per 100 possessions with Lopez on the bench, according to NBA.com/Stats.
4. Denver Nuggets (10.9 percent)
Like the Sixers, the Nuggets have a couple of paths to the No. 1 pick. First, Denver itself has the fourth-best lottery odds, according to BPI simulations, at 7.8 percent. Second, from the Carmelo Anthony trade, the Nuggets also have the option of swapping picks with the New York Knicks, who win it an additional 3.1 percent of the time.
As with the Nets, the Knicks have no reason to tank (the worse of the picks belonging to New York and Denver goes to the Toronto Raptors via the Andrea Bargnani trade), though they've been struggling over the past two weeks anyway.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (7.1 percent)
The Timberwolves have the last two overall No. 1 picks on their roster in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins (and also had 2013 No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett before waiving him in September), and it's conceivable they could make it three in a row this June.
Since starting 8-8, Minnesota has gone 4-14 to slide out of playoff contention. The Timberwolves still have a respectable minus-3.1 differential, however -- nearly identical to the 18-17 Memphis Grizzlies (minus-3.0).
6. Phoenix Suns (5.3 percent)
With point guard Eric Bledsoe ruled out for the season after arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus earlier this week, the Suns have become an interesting lottery dark horse.
Phoenix is 0-4 without Bledsoe, albeit against a brutal schedule, and 2-11 in its past 13 games. The Suns have famously never held the No. 1 pick, losing a coin flip to the Milwaukee Bucks for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (then Lew Alcindor) in 1969, when Phoenix instead drafted Neal Walk. At long last, this could be their year.
7. Milwaukee Bucks (5.0 percent)
Speaking of the Bucks, a season they hoped would see them contend in the East instead appears headed for the lottery. On the plus side, Milwaukee should have the opportunity to add another building block to its young core, though the chances of getting Simmons are relatively remote.
8. New Orleans Pelicans (3.5 percent)
While BPI accounts for preseason projections that had the Pelicans in the playoffs, it still probably underrates them a little bit, because it doesn't know that injuries were a big reason why New Orleans has underachieved thus far.
The progress evident in the Pelicans' 7-9 record since Tyreke Evans returned on Dec. 1 probably won't be enough to get them to the playoffs, but it also suggests New Orleans is unlikely to enter the lottery in the top 10, barring further injuries.
9. Portland Trail Blazers (2.2 percent)
Because of trades, only nine teams have better than a one percent chance of winning the lottery, according to BPI simulations. The Blazers are the last of those teams, and they're a distinct long shot.
Not only does Portland currently have a better record than eight other teams, the Blazers' point differential (minus-1.1 points per game) suggests they should be even closer to .500. So Portland is far more likely to reach the playoffs in the West than win the lottery.
There you have it, the current projections for where Simmons will land. As long as he remains the No. 1 pick, there is almost a 63 percent chance that Simmons will become a member of the Sixers, the Lakers or the Celtics.