Note: This article has been updated to include the Warriors' win over the Lakers on Nov. 24.
Until an opponent can knock off the undefeated Golden State Warriors, the greatest teams in NBA history are the only appropriate benchmark for Golden State's 16-0 start.
In particular, the Warriors have drawn comparisons to the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls team that set the league record with 72 wins en route to the first of three consecutive championships. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, who played for the '95-96 Bulls, has compared the teams for ESPN.com, and the matchup has been simulated using video games, but what do the numbers say?
Let's take a look at how Chicago and Golden State stack up statistically.
Mythical matchup
One of the challenges of comparing the Bulls and Warriors is how dramatically the league has changed over the past two decades. While much of the discussion is about rules changes, such as stricter rules on hand-checking and looser rules on playing zone defense, the biggest change is probably in style of play, particularly on offense.
For instance, even though the 3-point line had been temporarily moved in to 22 feet, making players like Michael Jordan long-range threats, just one NBA team made more 3s in 1995-96 than last season's average team did.
To put Chicago and Golden State on a level playing field, I adjusted their stats for league average.
Additionally, to account for the fact that the Warriors will obviously regress from how well they've played so far -- sorry, they're not going 82-0 -- it helps to combine their performance over 2014-15 and 2015-16 to date to compare to the 1995-96 Bulls. The Warriors brought back almost exactly the same team, so using prior-season data gives us a bigger sample to look at. This provides the data both more stability and more predictive power.
Here's a scouting report for that matchup.
Warriors' edges
Shooting (plus-9.6 percent vs. plus-3.7 percent)
Naturally, shooting is going to be an advantage for Golden State against just about anyone ever. Their effective field goal percentage (which counts 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals to account for their additional value) was 8.8 percent better than league average last season, which was the 14th-best mark since the ABA-NBA merger. This season's Warriors are off to an even hotter shooting start, posting an eFG 10.2 percent better than average.
By contrast, Chicago was fairly average when it came to shooting. Though the Bulls were one of three teams to make better than 40 percent of their 3s from the shorter line, their 2-point percentage (49.6 percent) ranked 11th in the NBA, behind two teams that failed to make the playoffs.
Shot defense (plus-5.7 percent vs. plus-3.5 percent)
Chicago was also relatively unimpressive when it came to defending shots. We can see this most clearly in looking at 2-point shooting, which was the predominant type of offense in the Bulls' heyday.
The 47.2 percent shooting they allowed by opponents from 2-point range ranked just eighth-best in the league. Golden State held opponents to a league-low 45.8 percent inside the arc last season.
Bulls' edges
Offensive rebounding (plus-20.5 percent vs. minus-0.6 percent)
Led by Dennis Rodman, Chicago corralled a league-high 36.9 percent of its missed shots in 1995-96. Even in the context of a league where offensive rebounds were much more common (30.6 percent of all rebounds went to the offense then, as compared to 24.9 percent now), that was dominant -- one of the 10 best offensive rebound percentages since the merger relative to league average.
The Warriors are slightly worse than average on the defensive glass, so boxing out Rodman would be a potential liability.
Avoiding turnovers (plus-12.0 percent vs. plus-0.9 percent)
Much to chagrin of Kerr and interim coach Luke Walton, Kerr's current team has an occasional tendency to get sloppy in pursuit of highlight plays. After a turnover-prone start, Golden State ended up with a turnover rate better than league average last season, but ranks 23rd so far in 2015-16.
The veteran Bulls had the league's lowest turnover rate in 1995-96. Between the second chances and limiting turnovers, Chicago averaged 5.7 more shots per game than its opponents. This season's Warriors have attempted fewer shots than their opponents.
Avoiding fouls (plus-9.9 percent vs. minus-5.5 percent)
Another Golden State weakness is a propensity for putting opponents on the line. The Warriors rank 22nd this season in opponent free throw rate. While the Bulls were surprisingly unexceptional when it came to drawing fouls (their own free throw rate was 26th in the league), they were in the top 10 in keeping opponents off the foul line.
Key battlegrounds
Pace (Warriors plus-4.4 percent, Bulls minus-0.6 percent)
One of the most compelling differences between the teams is their pace of play.
Last season, Golden State became the first team since the merger to win a championship while also leading the league in pace. The Warriors have slowed down this season, but only a tad; they're still playing at the NBA's third-fastest pace.
Chicago ranked 19th in pace in 1995-96, and shutting down Golden State's transition offense would surely be a priority in a hypothetical matchup.
Slowing the game would be particularly important given the Bulls' reliance on stars Jordan and Scottie Pippen, who both averaged more minutes per game in 1995-96 than any Warrior has in either of the past two seasons.
Bulls' ballhandling (plus-12.0 percent) vs. Warriors' ability to force turnovers (plus-7.0 percent)
One way for Chicago to slow things down would be taking away the live-ball turnovers on which Golden State is so dangerous running to the 3-point line. The Warriors' defense typically forces turnovers at an above-average rate, but the Bulls could probably cut off the supply much like the Cleveland Cavaliers did in the 2015 NBA Finals.
Warriors' shooting (plus-9.6 percent) vs. Bulls' shot defense (plus-3.5 percent)
Here's where a Chicago-Golden State matchup probably would be won.
Could the Bulls run them off the 3-point line? Chicago allowed opponents fewer 3-point attempts than league average and ranked sixth in opponent 3-point percentage.
But the Bulls never faced a challenge like the Warriors' attack, which is averaging more made 3s this season (12.5 per game) than six teams attempted in 1995-96.
The verdict
Taking the rules changes and evolution of tactics out of the equation, a battle between the 1995-96 Bulls and the current Warriors would probably come down to Golden State's ability to be more efficient than Chicago on fewer shot attempts.
Overall numbers still give the Bulls the edge. Chicago's plus-12.2 point differential, the third-best margin of victory in league history, is still far better than the plus-11.0 the Warriors have managed over the last two regular seasons combined.
Not only that, the Bulls were 72-10 in the regular season and their adjusted playoff point differential ranks second all-time.
Even counting the Warriors' amazing, record-tying 16-0 start to this season, they are "just" 69-13 in their past 82 regular-season games. And they were less dominant in the 2015 postseason than the '96 Bulls.
Despite outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game during the undefeated start, Golden State still would have to post a plus-11.5 differential the rest of the season to match Chicago and the other best teams in NBA history in scoring margin:
As Ben Alamar wrote on Monday for ESPN Insider, Golden State is up to 12.6 percent likelihood to match the Bulls' 72-win record.
Of course, for the Warriors to even be in the conversation with a Chicago team I rated the best in NBA history, based on a combination of point differential, league strength and playoff performance, is testament to how well Golden State has played so far.
For now, we have to give the nod to MJ's Bulls. But if the Warriors can keep up anything close to this level for seven more months, the answer might just change.