Note: The Sixers picked up their first win of the season on Tuesday night after starting 0-18, ending this race. The Warriors remain undefeated at 19-0.
Once upon a time, the Golden State Warriors were the Philadelphia Warriors, residing in The City of Brotherly Love before moving to San Francisco in 1962 and later Oakland. That's ancient history in NBA terms, but now the Warriors and Philadelphia's current team, the 76ers, are coming together again to make new history.
Record company
On Friday, the Warriors extended the record for the longest winning streak to start a season to 17 games and counting with their nonchalant win over the Phoenix Suns. The Warriors will be on the road for seven of their next eight games, but still their chances to win a game do not drop below 65 percent until their December 5 trip to Toronto, where they currently have a 64 percent chance to win. They also only have four games before January 1 in which they currently have less than a 70 percent chance to win.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, the 76ers are closing in on a record for most consecutive losses to start a season. (As of Friday night, they hold the record for most consecutive losses over two seasons: 27.) With one more loss, they will tie the 2009-10 New Jersey Nets team that lost its first 18 games of the season and finished the season with just 12 wins. Philadelphia plays in Memphis on Sunday and has an 86 percent chance to lose that game.
Will the Warriors lose before the Sixers win, or will the Sixers win one before the Warriors register their first loss of the season? BPI can help us look at each team's schedule moving forward and get an idea.
When will the Warriors lose?
The Warriors' next four games are hosting the Sacramento Kings on Saturday and then three road dates: at Utah, Charlotte and Toronto.
The most likely loss this in that stretch is on Dec. 5, when they travel to Toronto and have "only" a 64 percent chance to beat the Raptors.
According to BPI, the Warriors have a 30 percent chance of winning all four of those games, meaning there is a 70 percent chance that the Warriors will have lost at least one game by Dec. 6.
When will the 76ers win?
Meanwhile, the Sixers' games through December 5 include at Memphis on Sunday, home against the Los Angeles Lakers, at the New York Knicks and then home for the Denver Nuggets.
BPI gives the Sixers a 17 percent chance to lose all four. The Sixers' best chance to win will be on December 1, when they host the Lakers and are actually favored to win (53 percent chance).
The verdict
In the short term, mostly due to the game against the Lakers, the Sixers have a better chance of breaking their streak -- whether they want to or not -- than the Warriors.
82 games: More Warriors wins or 76ers losses?
Meanwhile, there is a broader and perhaps more important question: Will Philadelphia win more than the Warriors lose this season?
The record for fewest wins in an 82-game season already is held by the Sixers: Philadelphia went 9-73 in 1972-73. (The Charlotte Bobcats were even worse in 2011-12, finishing 7-59 in a lockout-shortened season.)
Philadelphia has only a 2.5 percent chance of tying their 82-game record, and a 1 percent chance of breaking their record for losses.
Golden State might be chasing a record, too -- the 72 wins posted by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls of Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Phil Jackson. The Warriors are now up to 25 percent to tie the record, with a 15 percent chance of setting a new record for wins.
As for the question above: After simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times, BPI gives the Sixers a 50 percent chance to win 15 or fewer games. And BPI gives the Warriors a 74 percent chance to lose 15 or fewer games.
In this "race" the Warriors have moved ahead for the moment. Let's see how it unfolds from here.