My annual ESPN Insider position rankings are back.
To formulate the rankings, I study each player's on-court performance and advanced metrics, including wins above replacement player (WARP) and real plus-minus (RPM). Then I slot the players as I see them, according to their predicted quality of play for this season.
1. James Harden
Team: Houston Rockets
RPM SG rank: No. 1
WARP SG rank: No. 1
Overall #NBArank: No. 5
Hidden talent: Harden climbed to 6.8 assists per game last season. showing his point-guard-like traits. Harden has ranked in the 88th percentile or better as a pick-and-roll ball handler each of the last three seasons, according to Synergy Sports.
Taking it to the next level: Harden has an inconsistent in-between game. Last season, he converted only 30 percent of his shots in the lane but outside of the restricted area.
2. Klay Thompson
Team: Golden State Warriors
RPM rank: No. 6
WARP rank: No. 4
#NBArank: No. 16
Thompson gets a Warriors' championship boost. As the third-best player on a 67-win team that looks even better this season, Thompson's two-way impact is underserved by his advanced metrics.
Hidden talent: Thompson's dribble-drive game has blossomed. In 400 fewer minutes last season, Thompson drove 140 more times, per NBA.com. He jumped from the 57th percentile to the 83rd in points per drive.
Taking it to the next level: You have to nitpick to find a realistic area of improvement for Thompson, but here's one: He doesn't draw many offensive fouls. Last season, he drew 0.08 of them per 100 possessions, ranking in the 15th percentile. Stand your ground!
3. Jimmy Butler
Team: Chicago Bulls
RPM rank: T-2
WARP rank: No. 2
#NBArank: No. 17
Few have made the kind of leap Butler made from established role player to bona fide offensive creator. Hell-bent on self-improvement, Butler seems to have added more playmaking to his arsenal. Look out.
Hidden talent: The more he's on the move, the better Butler is on offense. Yet he's also a sneakily fantastic post-up option. Butler has rated in the top 10 of all players in points per play on post-ups in both of the last two seasons, per Synergy.
Taking it to the next level: Butler still flails wildly when shooting off the dribble. He's ranked in the bottom 15 percent in those situations each of the last three seasons, per Synergy.
4. Bradley Beal
Team: Washington Wizards
RPM rank: No. 10
WARP rank: No. 15
#NBArank: No. 36
Beal has taken his time in fulfilling his considerable potential. Beginning with last season's playoffs, he appears to be accelerating. He looks right at home in Washington's new up-tempo attack and is poised to be a breakout star early in the 2015-16 season.
Hidden talent: Beal generally has been an elite transition player during his brief NBA career, ranking as high as the 99th percentile per play according to Synergy. In the early going of 2015-16, Beal is tied with teammate John Wall for sixth in the NBA in fast-break points per game.
Taking it to the next level: Beal has been as subpar inside the arc as he has been dynamic beyond it, hitting only 43 percent on 2-pointers for his career.
5. Dwyane Wade
Team: Miami Heat
RPM rank: No. 22
WARP rank: No. 5
#NBArank: No. 46
Wade gets nicked for durability as he has missed around 20 games per season in recent years. At the same time, there are only a couple of 2-guards who are primary creators. Wade is one of them. Wade can produce enough in 65 to 70 games to be elite at his position.
Hidden talent: While Wade's defensive RPM is shrinking, per-play metrics suggest he's still a factor on the ball. Last season, Synergy rated him in the 93rd percentile per play and SportVu had him in the 91st percentile in impacting opponent shooting percentage.
Taking it to the next level: At 34, how much gas is left in the tank?
6. Khris Middleton
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
RPM rank: T-2
WARP rank: No. 11
#NBArank: No. 45
Middleton's defense-driven RPM was so good last season the Bucks' media staff started including daily updates in their game notes. Middleton is no mere defensive specialist, though, possessing a quick and accurate catch-and-shoot game and a nifty midpost arsenal.
Hidden talent: Last season, Middleton perfected a floater that fueled a needed upgrade inside the arc. His percentage in the lane and outside the restricted area jumped from the 22nd to the 97th percentile.
Taking it to the next level: The floater is nice, but for Middleton to really make teams pay for overly aggressive closeouts he needs to leverage his plus athleticism into more foul shots.
7. Wesley Matthews
Team: Dallas Mavericks
RPM rank: No. 15
WARP rank: No. 10
#NBArank: No. 108
Matthews' ranking is a vote of confidence in his Achilles tendon, Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle and Dallas' vaunted training staff. If they can all stay on the court, Matthews is an ideal complement for Dallas' big three of Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons.
Hidden talent: Matthews is known for his floor-spacing ability, but in a small sample last season, Synergy had him with an average of 1.15 points per play as a roll man. That's the highest number of any 2-guard over the last three seasons.
Taking it to the next level: Matthews is as unselfish as they come, but his passes were only marginally productive in Portland. Maybe the change in teams will help.
8. Danny Green
Team: San Antonio Spurs
RPM rank: No. 4
WARP rank: No. 3
#NBArank: No. 60
Green's impact is elite. He's among the top floor spacers in the game. He's an ideal fit for the Spurs' system, though he's adapting his game to what might be a diminished role. And he's a fine defender to boot.
Hidden talent: Green's strengths are transparent. One sly component to his game is a solid ability to use the pick-and-roll. He has rated in the league's top 25 percent for three years running.
Taking it to the next level: For Green's game to expand, he'd need to increase his volume. But that might not be a good idea because of his so-so athleticism and lack of ballhandling acumen. Green is great in San Antonio, but he's probably not great elsewhere.
9. Kyle Korver
Team: Atlanta Hawks
RPM rank: No. 5
WARP rank: No. 8
#NBArank: No. 53
Korver will be 35 by season's end, but he's coming off a career season. A regression can be expected because of, you know, nature. Korver doesn't have the defensive impact of the guys ahead of him on this list, but very few players impact a game so much without ever touching the ball.
Hidden talent: Korver is as frightening to opponents as a trailer in transition as DeAndre Jordan is as a lob finisher. Korver averaged 1.45 points per transition play last year, the top figure for a wing player over the least three seasons, according to Synergy
Taking it to the next level: There's not much for Korver to add to his game, so perhaps his goal should be to make every shot.
10. J.J. Redick
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
RPM rank: No. 14
WARP rank: No. 14
#NBArank: No. 73
Redick has managed to beat back unrealistic expectations for his career. As a floor spacer, he's on par with the players ahead of him in these rankings but more able to create his own shot.
Hidden talent: Redick has all the catch-and-shoot numbers you'd want for a guy with his role, but his numbers off the dribble are even more impressive. Redick has been in the top 10 percent in efficiency off the bounce three straight seasons, per Synergy.
Taking it to the next level: The last two seasons, Redick has been in the league's bottom 10 percent against post-ups, though there's probably not much to be done about that.
The middle third
11. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
12. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves*
13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
14. Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns
15. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
16. Monta Ellis, Indiana Pacers
17. Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
18. Iman Shumpert, Cleveland Cavaliers
19. Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
20. C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers
Wiggins' potential is immense. Maybe he's No. 1 on this list someday. But like many elite players before him, he doesn't quite yet know what he's doing. Wiggins' per-game numbers as a first-year player got him the rookie of the year award, but he was wildly inefficient. That was true for both ends of the floor. This ranking is a vote for Wiggins' potential, the improved team around him and the allure of the second-year leap.
*While Wiggins is often listed as a small forward, per basketball-reference.com, he has received 61 percent of his minutes at shooting guard this season, as Tayshaun Prince starts at the 3.
The bottom third
21. Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics
22. Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers*
23. Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans
24. Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder
25. Courtney Lee, Memphis Grizzlies
26. Arron Afflalo, New York Knicks
27. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
28. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
29. Nik Stauskas, Philadelphia 76ers
30. Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets
Kids, specialists and players on the downside populate the bottom third. If Clarkson were playing his real position and we ignored defense, he'd be a lot higher. Same for Gordon, who is not really allowed to play as much with the ball in his hands as he might on another team. Just to cite one example, I'd love to see him with the Mavericks.
*Clarkson is the starter at shooting guard, while Kobe Bryant starts at small forward.