My annual ESPN Insider position rankings are back.
To formulate the rankings, I study each player's on-court performance and advanced metrics, including wins above replacement player (WARP) and real plus-minus (RPM). Then I slot the players as I see them, according to their predicted quality of play for this season.
1. Stephen Curry
Team: Golden State Warriors
RPM point guard rank: No. 1
WARP point guard rank: No. 1
Overall #NBArank: No. 4
Hidden talent: We know Curry has mastered the art of the shot. What gets overlooked is that tracking data has him in the 98th percentile in scoring plays per pass over the past couple of years. He'd be great even if he shot like a mortal.
Taking it to the next level: Barring major injury, Curry is headed for Springfield. The duration of his peak will determine how high he climbs on the all-time point guard chart.
2. Chris Paul
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
RPM rank: No. 2
WARP rank: No. 2
#NBArank: No. 6
Few NBA stars have been so consistent. Paul has ranked eighth or better in WARP in seven of the past eight seasons, yet it feels as if we take him for granted.
Hidden talent: Paul is such a pick-and-roll maestro with the ball in his hands that we forget just how good a pure shooter he is. He's ranked in the 96th percentile or better in catch-and-shoot situations in each of the past three seasons, per Synergy Sports research.
Taking it to the next level: Paul would be the first to tell you that winning a title completes his career puzzle.
3. Russell Westbrook
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
RPM rank: No. 3
WARP rank: No. 3
#NBArank: No. 7
He's the closest thing the NBA has to a superhero. Westbrook does everything on the court, though sometimes his will to do everything is his undoing.
Hidden talent: Westbrook's passes are exceptionally productive. He attracts as much attention as any NBA player. Last season, Westbrook created a scoring play on roughly every fifth pass, second to San Antonio's Manu Ginobili.
Taking it to the next level: Trust! An example: Westbrook passed on 23.8 percent of his drives last season, per SportVu research. That's about 3 percent less often than Monta Ellis did.
4. John Wall
Team: Washington Wizards
RPM rank: No. 6
WARP rank: No. 5
#NBArank: No. 11
Wall has gradually climbed the pecking order of the league's deepest position. At the precipice of his prime, Wall's Wizards unveiled an up-tempo scheme that should make the most of his ability.
Hidden talent: Wall has always been a shockingly good shot-blocker. Last season, he reached the 74th percentile in overall rim protection, per SportVu research. The guy is a point guard.
Taking it to the next level: As Wall and Bradley Beal adapt to Randy Wittman's new system, Wall should improve his turnover rate and shot selection. A little more efficiency puts Wall up in the elite category.
5. Damian Lillard
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
RPM rank: No. 9
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 15
Now that Lillard is the unrivaled alpha option in Portland, his playmaking ability can climb to the same level as his off-the-charts shot-making prowess.
Hidden talent: A big hole in Lillard's game was his inability to finish at the basket. Last season, he improved his rate at the rim from 50 percent to 62 while getting fewer shots blocked.
Taking it to the next level: That very ability to play smarter in the paint will bleed into Lillard's playmaking. As Portland surrounds him with shooters, Lillard's assist rate will soar. Then we can focus on his defense.
6. Kyle Lowry
Team: Toronto Raptors
RPM rank: No. 6
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 34
Lowry can be a divisive player in debates like these and his shooting slump at the end of last season didn't help matters. When right, Lowry excels at everything a point guard needs to do.
Hidden talent: The undersized Lowry is a sneaky-good defender. He's strong and determined and all that stuff, but more tangibly, few point guards draw a higher rate of offensive fouls.
Taking it to the next level: Lowry needs to shoot the ball at career norms to climb back to the level of 2013-14, when he was a top-10 player in the league. During the preseason, he looked ready to do that.
7. Kyrie Irving
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
RPM rank: No. 16
WARP rank: No. 4
#NBArank: No. 18
Irving's bottom line doesn't change much, but last season he evolved. By retaining his full value while adapting his game alongside LeBron James, Irving's impact has never been greater.
Hidden talent: Irving is one of the most dynamic isolation players in the league. While the Cavs don't want to overdo one-on-one action, it would be an essential weapon against Curry in a Finals rematch.
Taking it to the next level: We could talk about Irving's defense, but we all know what Irving has to prove: that he can remain healthy through a regular season and a deep playoff run.
8. Mike Conley
Team: Memphis Grizzlies
RPM rank: No. 10
WARP rank: No. 8
#NBArank: No. 20
Conley is as constant as the blues on Beale Street. His level of production mainly varies with how many minutes he plays.
Hidden talent: Conley's more mature defensive approach plays well with the grindhouse style of the Grizzlies. He has become less prone to taking chances. Better at position defense, Conley cracked the league's top 10 percent for drawing offensive fouls last season.
Taking it to the next level: At 28, Conley is what he is. The last key area of growth within his grasp is ball protection, where his turnover rate remained worse than the league median last season.
9. Eric Bledsoe
Team: Phoenix Suns
RPM rank: No. 5
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 37
RPM, WARP, take your pick, because the metrics love Bledsoe. The only thing holding him back in these rankings at this point is a short track record.
Hidden talent: Among our top 10 point guards, Bledsoe is the best defender of the bunch. His defensive RPM has reached the 97th percentile. That rating is backed up by pretty much every defensive metric we have.
Taking it to the next level: Few players have a bigger disparity in accuracy between shooting off the dribble and on catch-and-shoot looks. Playing alongside Brandon Knight, it's essential that Bledsoe becomes a more consistent standstill shooter.
10. Ricky Rubio
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
RPM rank: No. 4
WARP rank: No. 17
#NBArank: No. 64
Rubio's strengths are stronger and his weaknesses weaker than just about any other player's on the board. Including his international career, it feels as if Rubio has been around forever, but he's still only 25. He'll put it all together some day, and this feels like the year.
Hidden talent: Whether you look at defensive RPM, steal rate, offensive fouls or rebounds, Rubio is elite on defense. If Bledsoe isn't the best point guard defender, it's Rubio.
Taking it to the next level: Turnovers, finishing and outside shooting -- Rubio has been near the bottom of the barrel in each. The outside shot should probably be the priority.
The middle third
11. George Hill, Indiana Pacers
12. Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
13. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
14. Ty Lawson, Houston Rockets
15. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
16. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
17. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
18. Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons
19. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
20. Deron Williams, Dallas Mavericks
The efficiency and two-way ability of Hill make it really tempting to place him ahead of Rubio, who is a bit of a wild card. My fellow Chicagoans will hate Rose's rating. My thinking is that the Bulls have become Jimmy Butler's team. Besides, the 19th-ranked point guard in a point guard league is still a very good player.
The bottom third
21. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
22. Rajon Rondo, Sacramento Kings
23. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
24. Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks
25. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
26. Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets
27. Isaiah Canaan, Philadelphia 76ers
28. D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
29. Raul Neto, Utah Jazz
30. Jose Calderon, New York Knicks
There are a few young guys in this group who will jet up the rankings in the next few seasons. Young players are inefficient, especially when they're point guards. Parker's placement might cause some angst, but he is coming off an ineffective, injury-plagued season and has a lot of mileage. He's still vital to the Spurs, but the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge is going to soak up some of Parker's possessions.