This early in the NBA season, it's hard to know how to react when Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins start making 3s and the Memphis Grizzlies get blown out at home. With such a small sample size, it's easy to confuse outliers with early indicators. ESPN Insider's Kevin Pelton is here to help separate the signal from the noise.
Anthony Davis makes three 3-pointers in a quarter; DeMarcus Cousins makes 4-of-5 3-pointers
ESPN's Tom Haberstroh wrote earlier this month that the 3-point revolution was coming to the frontcourt this season in unprecedented ways, so don't say you weren't warned. But yes, two All-Star big men matched their previous career totals for 3s in a single night on Wednesday.
For Davis, stretching his game beyond the 3-point line is a logical next step in his development. Though Davis was 1-of-12 on 3s last season, he was one of the league's better midrange shooters, knocking down 41.9 percent of his 2-point attempts beyond 16 feet according to Basketball-Reference.com. Davis is shooting the 3 naturally and went 7-of-13 in the preseason, so continuing to make 3s on a regular basis is reasonable.
I'm a bit more skeptical when it comes to Cousins. He's not quite as accurate inside the arc as Davis (38.3 percent last season, a bit below his career mark of 38.8 percent) and made just one of his 12 preseason triples.
In tribute to one of the great all-time early-season performances, Brandon Jennings scoring 55 points in his seventh NBA game -- a total he has yet to come within 18 points of matching -- let's rate first-week surprises on a scale of one Jennings (most likely to continue) to five Jennings (probably a fluke).
Davis' Jennings Scale:
Cousins' Jennings Scale:
Ricky Rubio scores a career-high 28 points
Rubio knocked down a 3 on the Minnesota Timberwolves' first possession Wednesday and never stopped, surpassing his career high of 25 points. Rubio's confidence in his outside shot, which he fired without hesitation, particularly off the dribble, was apparent, as was his accuracy, of course.
Still, we're going to need to see a few more strong performances given Rubio's long track record of inaccurate shooting.
Jennings Scale:
Emmanuel Mudiay commits 11 turnovers
An otherwise scintillating NBA debut for the Denver Nuggets' rookie point guard was marred by miscues. Mudiay's 11 turnovers tied the most by any NBA player in a game last season (by Derrick Rose) and were the most by a Denver player since Fat Lever in December 1986.
Mudiay averaged a league-high 4.8 turnovers per game in the preseason (5.9 per 36 minutes), so he's a safe bet to lead the NBA in turnovers and could become the first player since Charles Barkley in 1985-86 with 350 in a season.
Jennings Scale:
Memphis Grizzlies lose by 30 at home
The opponent is a mitigating factor here. The Grizzlies won't be the last team the Cleveland Cavaliers blow out this season, even before Kyrie Irving's return to the lineup. (The Cavaliers also handed Memphis its biggest home loss last season, by 22 points.)
Still, the Grizzlies' non-competitiveness is a worrisome indicator. Former Insider John Hollinger, now Memphis' vice president of basketball operations, observed in 2012 that eventual champions rarely get blown out at home. The trend hasn't changed since. Of the past four champions, only the 2012-13 Miami Heat suffered a loss by even 20 points.
So despite a bounce-back win Thursday at Indiana, the opener might set a ceiling on the Grizzlies' playoff hopes.
Jennings Scale:
Houston Rockets shoot 8-of-35 from 3-point range; Denver Nuggets shoot 13-of-27 from 3-point range
The most shocking game result thus far has to be the Nuggets going into Houston and winning by 20 points. Besides the absence of Dwight Howard, suspended by the league for the opener because of flagrant fouls from the postseason, the outcome can be traced to 3-point shooting on both sides. The Rockets made just 22.9 percent of their attempts, an unlikely but hardly shocking outcome (Houston shot worse seven times last season). By comparison, Denver making nearly half its 3 tries was even crazier. The Nuggets shot better only four times in all of 2014-15.
Houston's Jennings Scale:
Denver's Jennings Scale:
C.J. McCollum scores a career-high 37 points
Certainly, McCollum won't drop six 3-pointers and 37 points on a regular basis. If that were realistic, picking McCollum as my favorite for Most Improved Player would be underselling him -- McCollum would be an MVP candidate at that point. That noted, McCollum merely picked up where he left off with 33 points in the Portland Trail Blazers' final playoff game. The guy gets buckets.
Jennings Scale:
Kawhi Leonard scores a career-high 32 points
The biggest surprise here is that Leonard had never scored 30 points in a regular-season game before. (He previously scored 32 in last year's playoff series with the L.A. Clippers.) Leonard has scored 25-plus points more times since March 1 (seven) than in his previous NBA career (five). Get used to him being a scoring threat.
Jennings Scale:
Derrick Williams scores 24 points in 21 minutes
What has gotten into Derrick Williams? The No. 2 overall pick of the 2011 draft, who washed out in Minnesota and was underwhelming in Sacramento, can't stop scoring since signing with the Knicks this summer. Williams averaged 27.5 points per 36 minutes in the preseason, but even that was no indication of his scoring outburst in Wednesday's opener.
Williams' preseason scoring binge was heavily dependent on hot 3-point shooting (10-of-23, 43.5 percent, far better than his 30.1 percent career accuracy). That wasn't the case against Milwaukee, as Williams made only a single 3. Alas, Williams couldn't keep it up Thursday, finishing with nine points on 3-of-9 shooting in a loss to Atlanta.
Jennings Scale:
Home teams go 6-8 on Wednesday
After Haberstroh highlighted the striking decline in home-court advantage last January, it rebounded to some extent late in the season. Home teams ended up winning 57.5 percent of games last season, up from 53.7 percent in January but still the lowest single-season mark in NBA history.
Home-court advantage has been even weaker early in the young season, though it's probably nothing more than statistical noise at this point.
Jennings Scale:
Detroit Pistons lead the Eastern Conference
Let's finish by looking at Jennings' current team. Though he's still recovering from the ruptured Achilles he suffered last season, Jennings' teammates are one of two teams in the East (the Chicago Bulls are the other) at 2-0. Detroit's inevitable fall in the standings won't be a concern if the Pistons can end a six-year playoff drought, and there's reason to believe they can. The Pistons have outscored opponents by 21 points with their starters on the floor, and the bench should improve when Jennings returns to the lineup.