We start every season with expert predictions. Media outlets, as well as various Las Vegas sportsbooks, post their projections of who'll be MVP, which teams will capture division crowns and, of course, who will represent the conferences in the Finals. If you haven't already seen ESPN's projections for who will win the East, here's a gander:
That's right, yours truly is the lone outlier, picking the Miami Heat to represent the East.
In many ways, Wade has become the Kobe Bryant of the Eastern Conference. He's an over-the-hill star player who hasn't quite accepted a role that doesn't make him the focal point of the offense. Unlike Bryant, however, Wade has experience in taking a step back.
For the Heat to truly unlock their full offensive potential, Wade has to go back to the off-ball cutting role he perfected during the Big Three era, when he redefined how we think of spacing with his "ghost cuts."
Pushing the pace
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has stated on multiple occasions his desire for his team to play with more pace, and with good reason. Miami was the second-slowest team in the league last season, according to NBA.com, averaging a hair over 93 possessions per game. That's including the second half of the season, when Goran Dragic pushed the team to about 95 possessions per game. Before Dragic's arrival, Miami was dead last at 91.9 possessions per game, with an offensive efficiency of 101.5, which put the Heat near the bottom third of the league. As a result, the Heat were in the bottom third in generating transition opportunities, with less than 12 percent of their offense coming on such plays, according to Synergy Sports.
And it's not just transition plays that are affected by slow pace; it simply leads to overall offensive stagnation. Spoelstra has intimated as much, telling the Miami Herald, "This team has to get the ball up the floor, get into our actions with decisiveness, clarity and pace. ... It will benefit us to play with pace, to get our players to our strengths. Playing with a slower, methodical pace probably doesn't do that as efficiently."
The main issue for Miami: Wade is one of the significant ball-stoppers for the team, with more than 20 percent of his touches extending past six seconds, according to SportVu. While usage jumped from the second-lowest level of his career, 27.6 percent, in 2013-14 to the second-highest, 34.5 percent, in 2014-15, Wade's offensive efficiency dropped from 0.995 points per possession to 0.915. He also got fewer opportunities in transition, dropping from 14.9 percent of the offense to 11.9 percent, and increased his shares of isolations, post-ups and pick-and-roll ballhandling. He also had half as many plays classified as cuts, despite being in the 94th percentile in that category the year before.
The goal with Wade should be simple: Get him into the offense with pace and try to avoid the sort of stagnant sets that have him holding and waiting.
Spacing is an absolute necessity in today's game, but the way we think about spacing can be stretched by creative play-calling. In the play above (which is reminiscent of the "Elbow Weak" play we used to run in Phoenix), Dragic has hit Bosh in the high post before going to set a pin-down screen on the weak side for Wade, who comes off the double stagger to catch up top. Although Wade opts for the pull-up midrange jumper, a tighter curl would get him attacking the basket where weakside defense has to make a tough decision on two shooters: Bosh on the fade to the wing and Deng in the right corner, where he shot 47 percent last season. By loading the shooting to the same side and then bringing the action there, the Heat get good enough spacing -- if Wade acts decisively.
Here, Miami goes into a simple Horns set with Bosh and Amar'e Stoudemire at the elbows and Wade and Deng in the corners. As Dragic comes off the Stoudemire screen, the defender, Marcin Gortat, sags to quell dribble penetration while a help defender, Kris Humphries, sags to pick up the roll, leaving Bosh to pop back with more than 8 feet of daylight. Again, Deng in the weak corner is a threat, while Wade is a cutting threat from the strong corner should his man try to help on the play. Note the interchangeability of this set: You can substitute Hassan Whiteside, or to a much lesser extent Chris Andersen, for Stoudemire as the roll man; Stoudemire or Josh McRoberts for Bosh; and Mario Chalmers or Gerald Green for Deng.
Sometimes the simplest plays can be most effective, especially when they buck conventional wisdom. Here, in a bit of role reversal, Wade acts as a "big" with a snug pin-down for Bosh, who catches up top. As Wade slips, Bosh has the option of taking the uncontested jumper, hitting the slipping Wade, dumping to Stoudemire in the short corner area or finding weakside shooters. It all depends on what the help defense does.
This offensive set is designed to get Wade on the move, but he's got to show better recognition. After the dribble handoff into the pick-and-roll, Wade attacks before Whiteside is set, rejecting the screen to go into the teeth of the help defense, which hasn't yet made the decision to stay home in the corner. As he penetrates, he misses Deng coming up the weakside wing and Bosh in the weak corner. These nuances almost can seem like nitpicking, but without the type of traditional 3-point spacing on this roster, the Heat's attention to detail will have to heighten because they have a smaller margin for error.
Overall, the increased pace and tempo of the offense can alleviate the relative lack of shooting on the Miami roster. By keeping the individual parts moving, it makes it more difficult for help defenders to pick their poison: whether to stay home on their man or leave to help on the primary action.
In order for this to work, however, Wade has to make a concerted effort to be effective on the run rather than play methodically. As he grows more familiar with the newer faces on the roster, he'll have a better feel for where the release-valve passes are in situations.
In many ways, that's a metaphor for where he is in his career. Once able to quick-twitch react to defensive moves, he now has to anticipate what the defense will do and have several possible reactions mapped out. If he's able, and willing, to make this adjustment, the Heat have a chance to turn some heads next spring.