Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Miami Heat.
Projected starters
Goran Dragic
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Tall, slithery point guard with superb finishing skills
+ Better with the ball on the move; average distributor
+ Big defender but needs to work harder and has back issues
Analysis
Consider Goran Dragic the Heat's big free-agency signing this summer. Dragic was dealt a monster $90 million contract after coming over with his brother Zoran in a midseason trade. Dragic performed well in Miami, considering the team was in disarray while dealing with injuries to Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside.
Dragic is an uptempo point guard who played for a team that didn't like to run. That might change, but when The Dragon gets a full head of steam, there's no stopping him. With great body control and touch around the rim, he shot 69 percent on shots within 4 feet, a scorching mark for someone his size.
The 30-year-old needs to trust his ability to drive more and spread the floor with his 3-point jumper, which he only unleashed 2.8 times per game last season. Dragic is an average defender, but he can be a star in Miami if he trusts himself to take over games like he can. He has the talent. Now, after an offseason in Miami, he might also have the comfort level.
Dwyane Wade
Position: Guard
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Strong playmaking two-guard without long range
+ Pump fake master; posts up or settles for jumpers
+ Notoriously apathetic to transition defense; bad knees
Analysis
Both Dwyane Wade and Bosh experienced a rude awakening about life without LeBron James. Wade missed 20 games due to injuries and saw his field goal percentage plummet to a seven-year low of 47 percent, while his turnovers skyrocketed to 3.4 per game. Wade did bump up his scoring average to 21.5 points per game, but that was due to volume, not efficiency.
With lanes more clogged last season, Wade fell in love with his jump shot. It didn't love him back. Last season, 58.4 percent of his field goal attempts came beyond 16 feet, where he shot a miserable 40.3 effective field goal percentage. In the Heat's first championship season, only 40 percent of Wade's shots came from that area. Wade seemed hell-bent on proving to everyone that he could shoot 3s, but that didn't go well.
With Bosh out for most of the season, Wade was running on fumes, and he barely put in a dent on defense. He was characteristically slow getting back in transition, and he doesn't create turnovers anymore. Real plus-minus says Wade's defense last season ruined all his virtues on the offensive end and made him a below-average player. Although that might be too harsh, Wade should be refreshed with a full summer. SCHOENE still sees him as a top-50 player in the NBA as he approaches his 34th birthday.
Luol Deng
Position: Forward
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Solid two-way wing who needs others to thrive
+ Lives in the corners and right wing; great cutter
+ Competes defensively but slowing as miles pile up
Analysis
Through all the curveballs thrown at the Heat last season, Luol Deng was the lone constant. He contributed solid numbers across the board, which is kind of his thing. But his season really went south with all the crazy lineups and changes to the Heat system at the end of the season. He shot just 53.4 true shooting percentage after the All-Star break, down from 57.6 percent when Wade and Chris Bosh were healthy.
Deng is a powerful cutter, but he needs distributors to make his presence felt. With McRoberts injured and Hassan Whiteside putting on the blinders, Deng's opportunities vanished. That said, he shot an impressive 44 percent in the corners, his highest rate since 2009-10, according to Basketball-Reference tracking. Although he can get a few buckets in the post, the Heat should really figure out how to get him on the move more. Deng averages 1.3 points per cut scoring play, compared to just 0.9 points on his post-ups.
Deng is probably a tad overrated defensively. RPM rated him as a below-average defender last season, and Synergy metrics agreed about his mediocrity. With just 1.2 combined steals and blocks per game, Deng is more of a contester than a turnover-creator. As he breaks into his 30s, he'll have plenty of talent to play off in Miami. The question is whether they have enough space and selflessness for him to thrive.
Chris Bosh
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Versatile star big man recovering from blood clots
+ Elite shooter from everywhere; lefty who works on right side
+ Smart defender but uneven effort; doesn't foul
Analysis
First things first: it's wonderful to hear Chris Bosh is healthy after a scary bout of pulmonary embolism forced him to leave basketball in February. That he's ready for training camp is cause for celebration not just for the Heat but also for Bosh as a human being.
Now to the less serious basketball stuff. Bosh struggled in his return to being the 20-and-10 guy. He wasn't that. Even before he got sick, his effectiveness in the paint eroded. With LeBron James not drawing attention anymore, Bosh shot just 47.6 percent on layups last season, down from 62.9 percent in 2013-14. That's mostly because he had to create on his own; his field goals were assisted on just 60.3 percent last season, down from 80.1 percent with the King around. Bosh needs to get stronger to improve on both ends. His block rate was cut nearly in half, and he watched his defensive RPM dip below average after being the fulcrum of the Heat's defense in seasons prior. He just doesn't challenge at the rim anymore, as he is preserving his energy and body for the other end. Anything Bosh does on the court this season will be an inspiring achievement, but the Heat's championship hopes demand Bosh return to being the two-way star he was in the title years.
Hassan Whiteside
Position: Center
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Monster big man with outrageous wingspan and strength
+ Improved touch around the rim; bad free-throw shooter
+ Never passes -- not a team defender; hunts for blocks and flexing opps
Analysis
One of the biggest surprises of the 2014-15 season (emphasis on biggest), Hassan Whiteside figures to be a wealth of surprise once again in 2015-16. Mere months after playing in Lebanon, Whiteside arrived on Miami's doorstep in December and promptly started dominating the NBA.
Whiteside is big -- so big he can grab the rim without jumping -- and he uses his 7-foot-7 wingspan to dunk, rebound and swat everything in sight. He finished the season averaging 17.8 points, 15.2 rebounds and 3.9 blocks per 36 minutes, measurements we hadn't seen since ... well, ever. His touch inside was probably unsustainably good, as he shot 60 percent on non-dunk layups. He also shot 18-for-36 on mid-range jumpers, which boggled the mind.
Whiteside recorded just six assists all season -- but when you score at will, it's understandable. The question is whether he can play team defense. His pick-and-roll defensive numbers were average, and the Heat's defense was actually worse with him on the floor. Some of that is related to injury carnage and wonky lineups, but Whiteside's block numbers overstate his defensive impact. Whiteside's maturity level will always make the Heat nervous, but he's so good it might not matter. SCHOENE sees Whiteside as the ninth-most valuable player in the NBA next season, with a projected WARP of 13.2. Yeah, that's big.
Reserves
Josh McRoberts
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Tall playmaker who plays more like a guard than a big
+ Great passer from the perimeter; tough defender
+ Returning from a season-ending knee injury
Analysis
Remember Josh McRoberts? Heat coach Erik Spoelstra certainly does. The prized free-agent pickup of summer 2014 was embattled with injuries last season and missed time with toe surgery, meniscus surgery and various ailments. It was really a lost season for the big man, but he has the playmaking talent to unlock some things the Heat can't do with anyone else on the roster.
McRoberts' ability to shoot will be a difference-maker. He can pass better than almost any big -- 4.0 assists per 36 minutes -- but he needs to play with more aggression with his shot, rather than trying to fit in. He took just 2.3 3s per 36 minutes, but he has shot 37 percent the past two seasons. He should take more, or else no one will guard him out there.
Defensively, McRoberts had an excellent 17 games for the Heat. The only time Miami defended well last season was when McRoberts or Chris Andersen were on the floor. Look for McRoberts to crack the Heat's rotation and remind everyone of his versatile skill set. He's better for them than Amar'e Stoudemire or Udonis Haslem.
Justise Winslow
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Young, athletic rookie with NBA-ready skills and size
+ Lefty shooter with promise from beyond the arc
+ Coming off sprained ankle over the summer
Analysis
After winning a championship for Duke, Justise Winslow somehow fell to the Miami Heat at No. 10, which thrilled the fan base and Heat CEO Nick Arison, who used to be the team manager at Duke. Winslow is a legit small forward who is strong enough and fast enough to play right away, despite being just 19 years old.
Winslow came on strong during conference play and the NCAA tournament, in which he showed his shooting skills from beyond the arc. He didn't light the world on fire in Vegas, where he shot just 31.2 percent from deep, but he was dealing with a bum ankle.
Winslow played a bunch of point guard at Vegas, so expect him to take over ball-handling duties at times when Wade exits. Winslow is going to get every opportunity to excel behind Luol Deng, but at his age, it's hard to see him being a winning player right away. Of note: His top statistical comp from the SCHOENE database is Paul George.
Gerald Green
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Mind-blowing leaper who hunts for 3s
+ Regressed from deep; rough handle; not just a dunker
+ Mails it in on defense; relies on athleticism far too much
Analysis
Meet the Stoudemire of wing players. Gerald Green fills up the scoring column like a star but gets completely lost on the defensive end. He scored 22.0 points per 36 minutes last season, but Phoenix coach Jeff Hornacek buried him on the bench for weeks at a time, despite his ability to get buckets.
Green isn't the most efficient player, but he should be a welcome 3-point threat for a team that needs one. Considering he is known as a jump-out-of-the-gym dunker, most would be surprised to learn Green registered one of the highest volume 3-point shooting campaigns in NBA history.
As you can tell, Green's 3-point percentage didn't measure up to those of the other names on the list. He had a down season from deep (especially from the corners), but he certainly tried to shoot his way out of it. One interesting thing: He seems to do better with Goran Dragic. Over the past two seasons, Green shot 42.9 percent on 3s fed by Dragic and just 36.7 percent by everyone else, per NBA.com SportVU player-tracking data.
Even still, Green might drive Spoelstra crazy with his defensive apathy. Green waltzes through screens and relies on his hops to make up for his laziness. His block and steal rates are abysmal for someone with his athleticism. RPM placed him 88th among 94 shooting guards in defensive impact. But if he returns to 2013-14 form and follows Spoelstra's orders on D, the Heat have themselves a steal -- and a show.
Udonis Haslem
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Undersized rebounder in decline
+ Once-money jump shot now broken; highly paid security
+ Physical defender who takes charges
Analysis
Once upon a time, Udonis Haslem wielded a knockdown jumper that kept the defense honest. Nowadays, you can just let him take it. Without another offensive weapon, Haslem begs defenses to pack the paint and clog everything up for his teammates.
Haslem is still a heady defender who can basically run the Heat's schemes in his sleep, but at some point, Father Time is going to catch up. Haslem is a sneaky great charge-taker who can't get high enough to block shots, but it's his offense that hurts his value. RPM saw Haslem as one of the seven most corrosive offensive big men in the game. Until he gets his jump shot back, it's hard seeing Haslem get regular minutes on the squad. That said, he could still be mayor of Miami, no matter what he does.
Mario Chalmers
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Inconsistent combo guard coming off down year
+ Regressed as 3-point shooter; doesn't finish well
+ Good hands but slow defender who relies on charges
Analysis
Mario Chalmers missed LeBron James. In 2013-14, the King assisted nearly half of Chalmers' 3-pointers, and Chalmers never really recovered after he left. Chalmers saw his 3-point shooting percentage plummet to below 30 percent last season, as he couldn't hit a shot outside the corners.
Chalmers needs to be a helpful 3-point shooter if he wants to maintain his rotation spot. He's not a natural distributor, and he doesn't have the athleticism to finish at the rim in traffic. He seemed to try to get calls last season and just ended up looking foolish flailing around the rim. He has a nice floater in the lane, but if a contest comes, he's in trouble. He shot just 43.2 percent on drives, the lowest of any Heat rotation player. That's not good.
Chalmers tends to get in Spoelstra's doghouse for his decision-making, but James created a lot of shots for Chalmers over the years, and Chalmers is who he is. His numbers last season were shockingly close to those of the pre-James era. Given that he turns 30 next season, Chalmers' developmental days are in the rearview mirror.
Amar'e Stoudemire
Position: Forward
Experience: 13 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ The Jamal Crawford of big men
+ Can score with the best of them; doesn't pass or play defense
+ Doesn't move laterally because knees are toast
Analysis
Let's start with the good. Amar'e Stoudemire was an incredible scorer off the bench for Dallas, with 23.5 points per 36 minutes after the trade. That mark, if maintained for a full season, would have placed him fifth among all big men last season in scoring rate, right up there with LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin. The 32-year-old can score efficiently in the post or in the pick-and-roll, as long as he doesn't have to move east-to-west. He'll keep the defense on its toes with a nice right elbow jumper, but that's the extent of his range.
Now the ugly stuff. Stoudemire is a cement-filled traffic cone in pick-and-roll defense because he can't move laterally. He placed in the 11th percentile in pick-and-roll defense in Dallas and the 15th percentile in New York, per Synergy tracking. Last season, Dallas hemorrhaged 110.3 points per 100 possessions to the other team with Stoudemire on the floor. That's swollen enough to be the mark of the worst defense in the NBA. In Dallas, he tallied 12.5 times as many fouls as blocks. Centers typically show a 2.3 foul-to-block ratio.
It gets worse. Stoudemire is a black hole offensively, cratering much of his value on that end. He might score like Griffin, but Stoudemire tallied just eight assists in 380 minutes in Dallas, or one in every 48 minutes of action; Griffin dropped at least eight dimes in a game 12 times last season.
Amazingly, Stoudemire passed out for an assist on a post-up only once while he was in Dallas. Once. Stoudemire has value as an instant offensive specialist, but Vegas simply can't place the over/under high enough when he's in the game.
Chris Andersen
Position: Forward
Experience: 13 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Bouncy pick-and-roll dunker who's looking his age
+ Never posts up; wants to shoot 3s; rebounding in decline
+ Great pick-and-roll player but weak one-on-one; blocks shots
Analysis
Few players were hurt more by LeBron James' departure than Chris Andersen. He seemed to age five years in the offseason, as his scoring, rebounding and block rates tumbled from 2013-14 to 2014-15. Noteworthy: His dunk rate (percentage of field goals that are dunks) fell from 35 percent in 2012-13 to 29.1 percent in 2013-14 to 27.1 percent in 2014-15.
Well, duh. He's 37 years old. Andersen can't be a Pogo Stick forever. He recognizes this, which explains why he's trying to add a 3-point game to his arsenal. He shot a career-high 13 3-pointers last season and made four, which isn't terrible. But he'll need a second weapon if he can't finish lobs like he used to. His putback game isn't an asset anymore.
Because of Whiteside's inconsistency and Stoudemire, the Heat's defense will largely depend on Andersen's health. He's a top-notch pick-and-roll defender who has cut down on the rampant fouls that plagued him earlier in his career. He's not strong enough to body up others (opponents run a clinic in the post against him), but defensive RPM saw him as a well above average defender. The Heat should be thrilled if they can get 15 minutes a night out of Andersen.
James Ennis
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic wing who can't dribble or create own shot
+ Mixed results as a 3-point shooter; no standout skill
+ High-energy defender who needs to learn NBA nuances
Analysis
With no real backup 2 behind Wade, the Heat were hoping to get a good look at James Ennis last season, after he played overseas in his pro debut. Ennis was predictably uneven with his performances. On one play, he'd be the Vine of the night after he dunked on someone. The next, he'd dribble the ball off his foot and cause a defensive breakdown the other way.
Ennis doesn't have a discernible skill other than his energy and athleticism. He can shoot a little bit from the corners, but not enough to play over the other wings in Miami. He needs to improve on his handle, or else it's hard to see where he fits in the NBA. He shot just 32.6 percent from deep and missed more than half his layups, which isn't a good sign. For a rookie, it wasn't necessarily a bad season. But he'll need a great sophomore season to beat Justise Winslow for minutes.
Josh Richardson
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Wiry rookie wing who can handle and shoot a bit
+ Natural 2-guard who played point a lot at Summer League
+ Good shot off the pass; old for a rookie
Analysis
Josh Richardson was the Heat's 40th pick in the draft, out of Tennessee. He has some appealing skills for a team looking to upgrade its depth at the wing. He can handle the ball better than most 2-guards his age, but he's not especially good at finishing or raining from deep. He shot below 40 percent from the field at summer league, with promising marks from 3-point land but not enough to raise eyebrows.
Richardson will have an uphill climb to win a spot on the roster. With the Heat investing in Green and Winslow, Richardson might be the odd one out. Don't be surprised if he plays the season at Sioux Falls and is brought up later in the year, if and when Wade needs time off.
Tyler Johnson
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Speedy combo guard with serious hops
+ Promising jump shot; not a natural distributor; great rebounder
+ Returning from fractured jaw suffered at Summer League
Analysis
Last season, Johnson wowed the Heat out of nowhere in training camp and earned a rotation spot by the end of his rookie season. His game is still pretty raw, but his athleticism -- 10 of his 70 baskets were dunks -- immediately stands out at his position. "Spark plug" gets thrown around a lot to describe players, but he embodies that.
He still needs to improve his ability to run an NBA offense if he wants to beat Mario Chalmers for backup point guard minutes. According to Synergy, his 49 plays on the pick-and-roll yielded just 32 points, which is also a product of his high volume of turnovers. The game should slow down in his sophomore season, but he needs to be more reliable with the ball.
As a spot-up shooter, he did very well and effectively shot 54 percent on spot-ups last season, once you account for the 3-point shot. While his rookie season turned heads, Johnson needs to prove he's not just a freak athlete who got lucky last season.