Since finishing last season in the lottery, the Charlotte Hornets have worked for the past six months to get back to the playoffs in 2015-16. Now, one awkward moment could undo all that work.
In Friday's preseason opener, Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist dislocated his right shoulder. On Monday, Yahoo! Sports reported that Kidd-Gilchrist will need surgery that would sideline him six months, which could keep him out the entire regular season. Without Kidd-Gilchrist in the lineup as a defensive linchpin, the odds that Charlotte will reach the postseason drop dramatically.
Hornets' playoff hopes tied to Kidd-Gilchrist
Charlotte made the playoffs as the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference two years ago, going 43-39 in Steve Clifford's first season as head coach. That performance and the addition of Lance Stephenson in free agency raised hopes for the Hornets a year ago, but Stephenson was a disaster and Charlotte won 10 fewer games than 2013-14, finishing five wins back of the eighth seed.
To turn things around, the Hornets dealt Stephenson to the Clippers and replaced him with veteran wing Nicolas Batum, acquired from the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for 2014 lottery pick Noah Vonleh. Charlotte also added free agents Tyler Hansbrough and Jeremy Lin and further strengthened its bench by drafting Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, perhaps the most NBA-ready player in the draft.
The Hornets' moves didn't do much to move the needle in Las Vegas. Last week, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released a preseason over/under for Charlotte of 32.5 wins -- fewer than last season. However, statistical projections were more optimistic about the Hornets. Projections based on the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) suggested Charlotte could expect to win 42 games, the eighth-best projection in the East and good for a playoff spot about 70 percent of the time.
Kidd-Gilchrist was a key factor in that hopeful projection. On the strength of his outstanding defense, Kidd-Gilchrist had the best projected RPM on the Hornets at plus-3.7. None of the players among the group likely to replace Kidd-Gilchrist's minutes, including P.J. Hairston, Jeremy Lamb and Marvin Williams, projects better than league average by RPM.
As a result, taking Kidd-Gilchrist entirely out of Charlotte's projection causes the team's defensive rating to drop from ninth in the league to 20th and the Hornets' win projection to drop to 34 games, 11th-best in the East. Their estimated playoff chances decline from 70 percent all the way to 25 percent.
Such results are consistent with what we've seen from Charlotte with and without Kidd-Gilchrist in past seasons, part of the basis for his lofty RPM rating. The Hornets have gone 62-55 (.530) with Kidd-Gilchrist in the lineup the past two seasons and 14-33 (.298) when he has been unavailable to play. Their defensive rating has ranked in the top 10 when Kidd-Gilchrist is healthy and worse than average without him.
While Batum is a solid defender, the options to pair with him on the wing in Kidd-Gilchrist's absence are unproven at best. Hairston and Lamb have struggled defensively in limited minutes early in their careers. Williams got the start at small forward in Sunday's preseason win over the Miami Heat. He almost exclusively played power forward last season and hasn't played small forward since starting at the position during the 2012-13 season. Now 29, Williams might struggle to keep up with smaller players on the perimeter.
Charlotte's best hope for surviving Kidd-Gilchrist's injury is finding additional offensive firepower. Hornets coach Steve Clifford has emphasized the 3-pointer this season after his team ranked 26th in made 3s and dead last in 3-point percentage in 2014-15. Kidd-Gilchrist was a factor in the limited number of makes; he didn't even attempt a 3 all season. With Lamb (who has averaged 2.1 3-pointers per 36 minutes in his career, albeit at a 34.8 percent clip) and Williams (1.7 3s per 36 on 35.8 percent accuracy) at the position, Charlotte could have better floor spacing. Hairston, who shot 8.5 3s per 36 minutes as a rookie, is certainly a threat from beyond the arc, but opponents won't really fear his shot until he improves on the 30.1 percent he made.
Still, this is a Hornets team that has won primarily with defense under Clifford, and Kidd-Gilchrist has been the most valuable link in that defense. Charlotte figures to struggle without him, and that could have long-term ramifications for the organization.
Charlotte's cloudy long-term future
The moves Charlotte made this season were beneficial from a short-term perspective but carried a long-term risk. Batum can be an unrestricted free agent at season's end, as can starting center Al Jefferson. Though the Hornets would have plenty of cap space, replacing the veterans would be difficult in a weak market in which several teams will be able to offer big money. As a result, there's pressure on Charlotte to win now and convince Batum and Jefferson to re-sign -- or at least become a more viable option for outside free agents.
There's also pressure on the principals involved. Clifford is entering the final season of the three-year contract he signed when he was named head coach in May 2013. While it wouldn't be fair, Clifford and GM Rich Cho could bear the blame if the Hornets fall short of expectations because of Kidd-Gilchrist's injury. As a result, his absence has the potential to change the Charlotte organization both on the court and off for years to come.