Future Power Rankings: Look out, Warriors will be good for a while

The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons.

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 100 based on how well we expect each team to perform in the next three seasons.

To rank the 30 teams, we asked ESPN Insider analysts Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton to rate each team in each category.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories. For an explanation of each category and a full view of how each team did in each individual category, click here.

Here are our latest rankings:

No. 1: Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are No. 1, and it's not even close.

Of course, that Larry O'Brien trophy reflects a certain glow on everything that's happened in the Bay Area, and on our expectations for Golden State's future.

The youthful roster is stellar: Stephen Curry is an MVP, Klay Thompson is an All-Star and Draymond Green is one of the best two-way players in the game. Steve Kerr showed coaching chops in his first season on the sideline. And management's moves and non-moves have turned up aces.

Winning also puts the market in a new light, improving the Warriors' ability to recruit role players. On the other hand, the team ranks just 27th in available money the next few years.

But all told, the Warriors appear to have the best shot at multiple NBA titles.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 6)

No. 2: San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs dipped from No. 1 to No. 2 in our rankings despite having the best free agent summer of any team in the league.

Landing LaMarcus Aldridge in the prime of his career was a coup, while the team also locked in Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to favorable long-term deals and brought back Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili on equally favorable short-term deals.

The loyalty shown by the four returnees speaks to the culture Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford have built in San Antonio as president/coach and general manager, respectively. In every edition of the Future Power Rankings, the Spurs have been rated No. 1 in management. They've made their own luck.

Put it all together -- the talent, the management savvy and the growing appeal of San Antonio as a destination -- and you have a franchise that seems to defy the aging process.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 1)

No. 3: Cleveland Cavaliers

Nobody scored better in the players category than the Cavaliers, who have a talented and deep lineup with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love both locked up through at least 2019. Yes, star LeBron James is playing year-to-year to maximize his salary, but it's hard to imagine James leaving Cleveland again. The Cavaliers will be the East's best team for at least as long as James remains in his prime.

Cleveland sits behind the Warriors and Spurs for a couple of reasons. First, the Cavaliers are almost certain to remain capped out for the next few years, meaning the trade exception they created by trading Brendan Haywood is the team's best hope of adding to the rotation.

Beyond that, we're still not as confident in Cleveland's management as the stable organizations in Golden State and San Antonio. Even as the Cavaliers reached the NBA Finals, James was publicly undermining coach David Blatt.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 2)

No. 4: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls return to our top five in the Future Power Rankings three years after dropping from the top tier. This might even be a bit conservative, but we have unanswered questions about rookie coach Fred Hoiberg and the health of Derrick Rose.

The upside is apparent. If Rose returns to form, Joakim Noah gets healthy with fewer minutes, Jimmy Butler builds on his Most Improved Player season, Pau Gasol maintains his high level of play and Nikola Mirotic develops as expected, this team can play with anyone.

Hoiberg will open up the offense, work the veterans less and give them more freedom, though whether he can replace Tom Thibodeau as a defensive coach is unknown. If he can, the East might have a powerhouse to join the Cavs.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 7)

No. 5: Houston Rockets

Along with their Texas counterparts in San Antonio, the Rockets are one of two teams to rank in the top five of every Future Power Rankings since May 2013 -- months before they signed Dwight Howard.

Though Houston reached the conference finals last spring, the Rockets' potential has yet to translate into truly contending for a championship. That could change this season with the addition of Ty Lawson to their core of Howard and MVP runner-up James Harden.

So long as Harden is in his prime -- and particularly while he's one of the league's best values because of a contract extension signed before the cap began rising -- Houston will be in the mix, and GM Daryl Morey has shown the creativity and long-term thinking to surround Harden with quality role players.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 4)

No. 6: Miami Heat

The Heat face a fascinating next 12 months. Miami has just four players under guaranteed contract beyond this season: guard Goran Dragic and forwards Chris Bosh, Josh McRoberts and Justise Winslow. The Heat could clear significant cap space next summer -- or be completely capped out by re-signing unrestricted free agents Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside.

Whiteside presents a particularly thorny issue. The Heat will only have Whiteside's Early Bird rights, meaning Miami will have to dip into its cap space to re-sign him for more than the mid-level exception. Then again, Whiteside could regress and not be worth even that.

We wouldn't trust everyone to manage an aging roster with so many question marks, but Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra have earned the benefit of the doubt. And South Beach will always be a draw for players like Dragic, who left money on the table to re-sign this summer.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 9)

No. 7: Los Angeles Clippers

There's no denying the Clippers' talent, at least now that center DeAndre Jordan has re-signed long term after agreeing to leave for the Dallas Mavericks. Jordan, point guard Chris Paul and power forward Blake Griffin give the Clippers' one of the league's best big threes.

Alas, max deals for Griffin, Jordan and Paul also swallow up most of the Clippers' cap, so they're likely to be taxpayers at least through the summer of 2017, when Griffin and Paul can both opt to become unrestricted free agents.

Help isn't coming through the draft, especially with next year's lottery-protected first-round pick almost certainly gone. So to keep improving their bench, the Clippers will have to find more bargains like newcomers Paul Pierce and Josh Smith. Such deals would improve our perception of Clippers management, since concerns are exclusively about Doc Rivers as president of basketball operations, not as coach.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 5)

Utah Jazz

The young roster is the story in Utah. Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors have developed into cornerstones, and Rudy Gobert is a force in the middle. Dante Exum, Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and Trey Lyles round out a youthful core that has Jazz fans excited.

The on-court improvement was obvious and rapid last season, with the Jazz winning 21 of their last 32 games.

Off the court, Utah scores well in the management category under the patient leadership of Kevin O'Connor, Dennis Lindsey and coach Quin Snyder. That's essential for a market that continues to rate low in appeal.

One major concern is at point guard. Exum is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Trey Burke has been a disappointment, making the future murky at that position. But if Exum can return to health and build on his potential, the Jazz have a very bright future.

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-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 21)

No. 9: Oklahoma City Thunder

Even when the Thunder were abysmal, they were the darlings of the Future Power Rankings. From 2009 to 2014, OKC finished in the top four every time.

But Kevin Durant will be a free agent next summer, and Russell Westbrook the following summer. In NBA circles, there is a growing belief that one or both is willing to do what other superstars have done with increasing frequency of late -- look for a new situation.

While no one knows what will happen, we have to factor the possibility into our future roster rankings.

The Thunder's management score has been adjusted downward, too. GM Sam Presti remains one of the brightest minds in the game, but several questionable moves have us puzzled. That includes trading away future draft picks and the hiring of Billy Donovan, a rookie coach from the University of Florida, to guide the team at a sensitive time.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 3)

No. 10: Boston Celtics

Boston took the largest jump of any team in our rankings. The roster, while lacking a star, has rounded into a collection that appears much more capable than it did a year ago, when the Celtics ranked next to last in the player category, ahead of only the Lakers.

The Celtics' management score jumped up to third overall thanks in part to the brilliant coaching of Brad Stevens and the continued patience and shrewd asset collection of Danny Ainge -- the Celtics rank second overall in the draft category thanks to as many as five first-round picks in the next two years.

The team is also looking at massive cap room the next few years. So the Celtics are well-positioned to add stars via trade, free agency or the draft.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 24)

No. 11: Washington Wizards

This is the highest the Wizards have ever placed in the Future Power Rankings, which date back to 2009. And there's a chance we might be underrating Washington, which has an opportunity to add a transformative free agent (say, one with the initials KD) next summer.

The Wizards have carefully managed their cap to ensure they'll have max-level space available. If they hold off on extending Bradley Beal (a la the Spurs and Kawhi Leonard), they could have nearly $40 million to add to their core of Beal, All-Star point guard John Wall, Marcin Gortat and Otto Porter.

Even our traditional skepticism of Washington's management might have to be re-thought. GM Ernie Grunfeld has done a nice job of value shopping the last two summers with an eye toward 2016, and coach Randy Wittman showed surprising tactical flexibility in the 2015 postseason. .

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 14)

No. 12: New Orleans Pelicans

As the West's best teams age, the Pelicans have the opportunity to go from fringe playoff team to legitimate contenders. Naturally, that growth will be tied to Anthony Davis' maturation into a perennial MVP candidate.

With Davis signed to a new five-year extension, New Orleans will have key decisions to make as contracts for Ryan Anderson (2016), Eric Gordon (2016), Tyreke Evans (2017) and Jrue Holiday (2017) end. Those expiring contracts give the Pelicans the flexibility to add via free agency if Davis proves a draw. And they have all of their future first-round picks after trading them away each of the last three years.

For now, we'll see what new head coach Alvin Gentry can build with a similar roster to last season's. Gentry's arrival helped New Orleans move up four spots in the management category.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 13)

No. 13: Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee moved up a whopping 13 spots in Future Power Rankings. The Bucks' massive improvement in their roster score is the driving force thanks to a collection of young talent: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Khris Middleton, Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe.

While there is buzz about the Bucks, concerns remain. Even with Monroe choosing to move from Detroit to Milwaukee, this is the 27th-ranked market.

Perhaps even more important is the uncertain state of the front office. While Jason Kidd's coaching has become a cause for optimism, reports both before and after his 2014 arrival have said that Kidd also wants to run the personnel side. The team has denied that Kidd would be granted that authority and recently extended John Hammond's contract as GM for one year. Still, the widespread belief is that Hammond, a holdover from the previous ownership group, is gradually ceding control to Kidd.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 26)

No. 14: Dallas Mavericks

We might look back on DeAndre Jordan having second thoughts as a turning point for the Mavericks. There were still questions about Dallas' future with Jordan, but they were amplified by his decision to return to the L.A. Clippers, which left the Mavericks with an aging core and no obvious path to improvement.

Led by 37-year-old Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas projects as the league's third-oldest team next season. And the two youngest members of the team's starting five, Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons, are both coming off surgeries.

The Mavericks can't count on adding young talent through the draft because they owe a protected (top 7) first-round pick to Boston from the Rajon Rondo trade. So despite trademark cap flexibility and our faith in the team's management, Dallas appears stuck in the middle for the foreseeable future.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 8)

No. 15: Indiana Pacers

After falling from seventh to 18th last year, the Pacers claw back up three spots in our latest rankings.

Roster attrition and a serious leg injury a year ago to Paul George have left Indiana in a state of transition. The Pacers' arrivals this summer -- Monta Ellis and Jordan Hill -- are short-term fixes eclipsed by the departures of Roy Hibbert and David West, their formidable defensive frontcourt.

The team has their draft picks and some cap room for the future and is bullish on lottery pick Myles Turner, but it might be a long road back to where the franchise was.

A year and a half ago, Indiana appeared to be a serious contender. Now it's unclear whether the Pacers are a playoff team in the weak Eastern Conference.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 18)

No. 16: Toronto Raptors

After getting swept out of the playoffs last spring, the Raptors overhauled their roster this summer. If that doesn't work, bigger changes could be ahead.

Toronto's defense collapsed last season, dropping from ninth to 23rd on a per-possession basis. To rectify that, the Raptors upgraded their perimeter D with free agents Cory Joseph and DeMarre Carroll replacing liabilities Greivis Vasquez and Lou Williams. However, Toronto also lost stalwart (and ESPN real plus-minus favorite) Amir Johnson.

If the Raptors struggle again, coach Dwane Casey could be the scapegoat. And GM Masai Ujiri has the chance to rebuild the roster again next summer, when Toronto could have max-level cap space if 2014 All-Star DeMar DeRozan opts out of his contract. The Raptors also have a good shot at a top-five pick: They get the worse of the picks belonging to Denver and New York from the Andrea Bargnani trade.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 11)

No. 17: Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are slowly moving up the Future Power Rankings, landing at No. 17 overall. Philly ranks first in the money and draft categories, thanks to a very inexpensive roster and the potential for as many as six lottery picks in the next two years.

The talent on the roster is improving -- Nerlens Noel finished his rookie season strongly and Jahlil Okafor is a rookie of the year candidate. That said, with Joel Embiid injured, Michael Carter-Williams shipped off to Milwaukee and Dario Saric still in Europe, it's unclear when Philly will have the kind of superstar it longs for as a cornerstone.

Brett Brown has proved to be a good coach who gets players to compete despite having no shot at the playoffs. More unproven is whether GM Sam Hinkie can use his unorthodox methods to take a team from the basement to the penthouse. .

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 19)

No. 18: Portland Trail Blazers

A step back was inevitable for the Blazers after they lost LaMarcus Aldridge to the San Antonio Spurs via free agency. By proactively rebuilding around point guard Damian Lillard, Portland may be able to minimize how long it takes to return to contention.

Portland's roster score dropped by half with the departure of Aldridge as well as fellow starters Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews. Still, the Blazers are in decent shape thanks to the presence of Lillard, promising recent draft picks C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard and offseason additions Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis, Mason Plumlee and Noah Vonleh.

Next summer could see Portland hit free agency with nearly $40 million in cap space, giving the Blazers an opportunity to accelerate their timetable if their most talented youngsters (McCollum and Vonleh) develop more quickly than expected.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 10)

No. 19: Minnesota Timberwolves

In the six years of the Future Power Rankings, the Timberwolves have consistently fared poorly. But while they remain in the bottom half, the outlook is getting brighter.

No. 1 overall draft picks Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns are the building blocks every team longs for, and they might be joined by lottery picks in 2016 and 2017. Ricky Rubio, when healthy, is an elite passer and defender at point guard, and Euroleague MVP Nemanja Bjelica could make an impact as a rookie.

In other words, the young Wolves might well surpass their No. 12 roster ranking at some point in the next three years.

The major concerns are about market -- Minnesota ranked 29th -- and management. Flip Saunders serves as both coach and president, and he's on leave because of a recent cancer diagnosis. Even a healthy return wouldn't answer all the concerns about decision-making in Minnesota.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 27)

No. 20: Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies' sliding ranking conveys a concern that the team has peaked. While still contenders in the West, their roster ranking fell again this year based on concerns that the core is aging and Mike Conley will be an unrestricted free agent next summer.

In terms of the salary cap, the team is well-positioned, but Memphis is not on the list of preferred destinations for most players.

The management score remains high, as the Grizzlies get a lot of the little things right. Soon, however, they might have to do more than hit singles to rebuild their roster.

The Grizzlies appear to be caught in a somewhat pleasant predicament: good enough to compete, not good enough to win it all and not bad enough to reload. The concern is that they might also not be young enough to improve before it gets worse.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 16)

No. 21: Atlanta Hawks

Even after stunning the NBA by winning 60 games and reaching the Eastern Conference finals, the Hawks dropped four spots in the Future Power Rankings.

Atlanta figures to have a tough time repeating that success after losing DeMarre Carroll to the Toronto Raptors as a free agent and failing to replace him with an experienced wing. And with only one starter (point guard Jeff Teague) younger than 29, more decline could be on the horizon -- especially with the risk of anchor Al Horford becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer.

We're also still a little skeptical of whether the Hawks' new braintrust of Mike Budenholzer (doubling as president of basketball operations) and GM Wes Wilcox (promoted from assistant GM) can match departed Danny Ferry's track record of bargain finds in free agency. So despite Budenholzer winning Coach of the Year, Atlanta scores only slightly better than average in the management department.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 17)

No. 22: Phoenix Suns

Along with the Charlotte Hornets, the Suns tied for the biggest tumble in the Future Power Rankings since last September. Back then, Phoenix was hoping to make the most of a three-guard rotation of Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas. Of them, only Bledsoe remains, and newcomer Brandon Knight looks like a downgrade.

The Suns are also busy dealing with a trade demand from forward Markieff Morris, whose team-friendly contract was a big part of their plan to compete now while preserving room for a max free agent next summer. And this summer's aggressive signing of Tyson Chandler blocked 2013 lottery pick Alex Len's path to the starting lineup.

Add it up, and even with cap flexibility and an ample supply of draft picks, there are more questions than answers about the future in Phoenix. That includes coach Jeff Hornacek, who hasn't had his 2016-17 team option picked up.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 12)

No. 23: Orlando Magic

Orlando is treading water, a team without a defining trait. After being a leading force in earlier editions of the Future Power Rankings, the Magic are now in Year 4 of finishing 20th or worse.

With four recent lottery picks -- Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and Mario Hezonja -- the Magic have some talent but lack a star. The hope is that eventually all the high draft picks, past and future, will rescue the franchise.

Free agency probably won't be Orlando's path to success -- with big money committed to Tobias Harris and a looming extension for Oladipo, the Magic rank just 26th in available dollars. And in terms of market appeal, Orlando sits in the middle of the pack.

In three previous stops, new coach Scott Skiles has made a positive short-term impact and then seen diminishing returns. It remains to be seen whether he can guide the long-term development Orlando needs.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 23)

No. 24: Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are baffling -- not competitive, but not rebuilding either. They have some talent, but their inexperienced management team doesn't seem to know how to move forward. And new coach Michael Malone, while capable, seems like an odd fit for a team that wants and needs to play an up-tempo style in the mountain air.

On the plus side, the addition of lottery pick Emmanuel Mudiay as the team's point guard of the future gives Denver a potential star. Furthermore, Mudiay should soon be joined by multiple future lottery picks, including the Knicks' pick in 2016.

But that's about it for true positives. Denver's roster, management and money ratings are all below average, with big commitments to Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler limiting their future flexibility.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 22)

No. 25: Charlotte Hornets

After a disappointing return to the lottery in 2014-15, the Hornets made an aggressive win-now move by swapping 2014 lottery pick Noah Vonleh to Portland for Nicolas Batum. Adding Batum and drafting Wisconsin star Frank Kaminsky should upgrade Charlotte's shooting in the short term and could get the Hornets back to the playoffs.

Looking over a longer window, however, there are concerns ahead. Batum and center Al Jefferson can both be unrestricted free agents next summer. So while Charlotte has plenty of cap flexibility, the team will either have to pay heavily to re-sign the starters or replace them.

On the plus side, the Hornets were able to lock in forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to a team-friendly four-year, $52 million extension. Kidd-Gilchrist and point guard Kemba Walker, the team's two young building blocks, are signed for a combined $25 million a year through 2018-19, a reasonable sum as the cap increases.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 15)

No. 26: Los Angeles Lakers

Once a fixture in the top five of the Future Power Rankings, the Lakers continue to languish in the bottom five. There's a little more hope this year -- the Lakers have added No. 2 pick D'Angelo Russell to a young core that now appears to include 2014 second-round pick Jordan Clarkson and 2014 lottery pick Julius Randle.

If the Lakers can lure a maximum free agent after striking out on the top players the last two summers, there's hope of turning things around quickly -- especially if they hang on to their 2016 first-round pick, which is top-three protected.

Still, the Lakers have a long way to go. They could be the worst team in the West during Kobe Bryant's possible farewell season, and even entering the lottery in pole position wouldn't assure the Lakers retain their pick. And if they do, it would be unprotected in 2017.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 28)

No. 27: Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are betting their future on three people: point guard Reggie Jackson, center Andre Drummond and head coach/president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy.

There's reason to believe that might work out better than Detroit's low ranking here suggests. The Pistons went 7-4 in 11 games last spring without now-departed Greg Monroe, with Jackson averaging 20.9 points and 10.8 assists and Drummond 16.9 points and 14.8 rebounds during that span.

Still, we're skeptical that Detroit's talent is any better than average, and a new contract for Drummond (eligible for an extension this fall or a restricted free agent next summer) will cut into the Pistons' cap space in 2016. So to reach the next level, Detroit is counting on internal growth under Van Gundy, including rapid development for 2015 lottery pick Stanley Johnson.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 20)

No. 28: New York Knicks

Carmelo Anthony, meet Kristaps Porzingis. As the face of the Knicks moves past his prime, a 19-year-old from Latvia represents the future for a franchise with very little to get excited at the moment.

The Knicks' roster, while marginally improved, remains among the bottom five in the league. The management team rates likewise, with a neophyte coach, a buffoonish owner and an unproven team president, Phil Jackson, who just celebrated his 70th birthday.

Thanks to the big 2011 Melo trade, the Knicks won't control its own first-round draft pick next year. They also won't have the salary cap flexibility to make a big splash in free agency until 2017.

The positives? Besides the potential of Porzingis, there is also the perpetual appeal of New York as a destination. And the team makes oodles of money and is willing to spend. But we don't believe that's enough to turn it around anytime soon.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 25)

No. 29: Sacramento Kings

This summer's trade sending Carl Landry, Nik Stauskas and Jason Thompson to Philadelphia and clearing $14 million in cap space should help Sacramento next season. After adding free agents Marco Belinelli, Kosta Koufos and Rajon Rondo, the Kings could easily surpass 30 wins for the first time since 2007-08.

In the long run, however, the cost of allowing the 76ers to swap picks the next two seasons, along with a potentially unprotected first-round pick in 2019 (outside the scope of the Future Power Rankings) looks high. Sacramento has lost its safety net if the current plan fails spectacularly.

After a tumultuous 12 months that brought changes on the sideline (where George Karl eventually replaced Mike Malone as coach) and in the front office (with Vlade Divac taking over for Pete D'Alessandro as decision maker), the Kings earned our lowest score for management -- 12 points behind the teams tied for 28th.

-- Kevin Pelton

(Previous rank: 29)

No. 30: Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn remains in last place in the Future Power Rankings, finishing 30th in the roster and draft categories and tied for 28th in management.

The Nets are a classic example of how inexperienced ownership combined with poor management dooms a franchise. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov wanted a championship within five years. Now, five years later, his eagerness has landed the Nets in NBA hell for the foreseeable future.

GM Billy King has thrown most of the franchise's future assets at acquiring veterans Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Now the Nets lack promising young players, with the possible exception of rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. And the best draft pick the Nets are likely to have in the next three years is a single first-round pick from the Celtics, in 2017.

-- Chad Ford

(Previous rank: 30)

Note: The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.

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