ESPN's Summer Forecast series continues with perhaps the biggest question of the next calendar year: Which NBA city will be blessed with the talents of Kevin Durant in 2016-17?
As I explained in my first look at the 2016 Free-Agent Big Board, the class is top-heavy and very thin beyond the top seven or so spots. At the same time, with the cap explosion set to take place, the league will have an unprecedented number of teams with the flexibility to add at least one max-priced talent. When you add up these three factors -- Durant's excellence, prevalence of cap flexibility and lack of alternatives on the market -- the competition for his services will be ferocious.
But just because there are a lot of teams willing and able to extend offers doesn't necessarily mean there will be a lot of teams with a realistic shot at pulling off the franchise-altering move of adding the 2014 MVP in the prime of his career. Durant's price tag is established.
A max deal for a player with his experience would have a starting salary of roughly $25.4 million, based on a $90 million salary cap, but money won't be the sole determinant in his decision -- and arguably won't be the biggest, either. Here's an early look at the teams that could be on Durant's short list.
The Favorite: Oklahoma City Thunder
Pros: The only franchise he's known has the advantage of being able to pay him more than anyone else by virtue of the 7.5 percent raise he's eligible to receive compared to 4.5 percent from any other team, as well as the extra fifth year. Beyond that, the Thunder have proved that, when healthy, they're an extremely competitive ball club. In the four seasons preceding last year's injury-riddled campaign, the Thunder have won 71 percent of their regular-season games: the equivalent of 58 wins in an 82 game campaign. Those four seasons ended in an NBA Finals berth, two Western Conference Finals appearances and a Russell Westbrook-less second-round knockout. Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka form a trio of talent that's right up there with the best triumvirates in the NBA, and while Westbrook can be a little trigger happy, there are natural complements between the three players and a pre-existing comfort level. In other words, OKC offers the magic combo of money, familiarity and winning.
Cons: While OKC's big three has remained intact, the supporting cast has arguably deteriorated over the years. Thunder general manager Sam Presti is one of the shrewdest leaders in the game, but 2014-15 was not a banner year in terms of management -- from giving up a first-round pick for Dion Waiters at a time when his value couldn't be lower, to matching a massive offer sheet to Enes Kanter despite his abysmal deficiencies that seem to make winning an event that happens in spite of his presence, not because of it. Throw in a new head coach in Billy Donovan who's attempting to make the jump from college to the pros and Westbrook's own impending free-agency saga (he'll be unrestricted in 2017), and there's at least some cause for concern for OKC's future.
The Hometown Hopeful: Washington Wizards
Pros: The destination most frequently mentioned with a Durant relocation is his hometown of Washington, D.C. The Wizards have positioned themselves to have tremendous cap flexibility while retaining the major components of their team: John Wall and Marcin Gortat will be under contract, Bradley Beal will likely have inked an extension and Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre will be on their rookie-scale deals. In a weaker Eastern Conference, a Durant addition would make the Wizards predators, and that's before filling out the roster with complementary talent. If the idea is to join a team with a longer competitive horizon than the Thunder, the Wizards fit the bill.
Cons: While times have been better recently, there's no real culture of winning to speak of in Washington. Life in the East is much easier than in the West, but it's still no walk in the park, especially since LeBron James looks like he has a few more years of dominance left in him. Also, while head coach Randy Wittman has had playoff success, his overall coaching philosophy and management of the regular season hardly inspire confidence.
The Usual Suspects: Miami Heat and Houston Rockets
Pros: Both of these teams have been active hunters in the free-agent and trade markets, so it shouldn't be a surprise if we see them jump into the sweepstakes. They both have reputations as turnaround artists, so if Durant is worried about continued improvement of supporting cast, the talents of Pat Riley and Daryl Morey should allay those fears. In Miami, Durant would find a culture and tradition of winning under the guidance of Riley and head coach Erik Spoelstra, as well as the presence of an aging Dwyane Wade. In Houston, Durant would reunite with former teammate James Harden. Miami's got the added benefit of playing out East, while Houston would have to make minimal adjustments to sign Durant and retain Dwight Howard, who has an opt-out in 2016.
Cons: Both of these teams have cap gymnastics to perform to free up enough space to offer Durant a full max offer, and Miami has the much tougher road between Hassan Whiteside's free agency and Wade's massive cap hold. In Houston, would Harden be OK with going back to the little brother role? Would Durant take that step back? And is Howard a sure thing to be retained?
The Dark Horse: New Orleans Pelicans
Pros: Combining Durant with Anthony Davis would not only give the Pelicans two MVP-caliber players, but an almost unfair amount of length. They have complementary skill sets and would give New Orleans an endless amount of lineup permutations. Clearing the room to sign Durant could be as simple as renouncing the rights to impending free agents Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, leaving the Pelicans a capable supporting cast led by Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik. Like Washington, New Orleans offers a longer timeline of competitiveness due to the relative youth of the roster Durant would join. Unlike Washington, the Pelicans coaching staff offers the promise of creative play calling and lineup manipulation to make the game easier for Durant.
Cons: Going to New Orleans would constitute a major leap of faith for Durant. He'd be joining a team with an uncertain ownership situation and a shaky track record of success. To put it in perspective, Durant has appeared in almost twice as many playoff games as the Pelicans' franchise. Picking the Pelicans would be a huge gamble considering where he's leaving, and it wouldn't even come with the benefit of leaving the conference.
The Extreme Dark Horse: Golden State Warriors
Pros: Two MVPs, together on a championship roster, led by an excellent coaching staff.
Cons: Major cap manipulation would be required to achieve this, including probably the trading of starting center Andrew Bogut and Finals MVP Andre Iguodala. Also, would Durant want to "tag along" to win a ring with a group that had already been to the mountaintop?
The Delusionals: Los Angeles Lakers
Pros: Randy Newman's "I Love LA," awesome weather and the chance to add his name to the long list of Hall of Famers who have worn the purple and gold.
Cons: He'd be joining one of the worst-managed teams in the league, which will most likely be coming off three consecutive lottery appearances. Poorly coached, meddlesome ownership and we haven't even established whether Kobe Bryant would still be around to "show him the ropes".