Well, that escalated quickly!
Free agency 2015 went by in the blink of an eye, with most of the non-minimum-salary free agents getting snatched off the board within the first 72 hours. It ran in stark contrast to 2014, when the entire market sat and waited to see what LeBron James did.
The way things are panning out, 2016 might go by even more quickly. No fewer than 15 teams are expected to have at least $20 million in cap space, as the first year of inflated salary caps fueled by the new television deal revenues takes effect. The list of desirable free agents is considerably thinner than years past, and an abundance of cash, combined with a shortage of talent, means free agency will get only crazier.
Here's my first look at the top 10 of my 2016 free-agent Big Board, sorted by the average annual value (AAV) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA. The contract valuations for many of these players are almost guaranteed to change, as their 2014-15 performances will affect their worth, but it is important to get a gauge of where the different prospects stand.
To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I considered as a member of the Phoenix Suns' front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things.
Remember, this is not a ranking of the best free agents -- it lines them up based on projected AAV. And the AAVs listed below represent my estimation of the approximate value of each player, not a prediction of what the player will receive on the market in 2016. (Values denoted in millions of dollars.)
1. LeBron James | Cleveland Cavaliers | SF
2015-16 salary: $23.0 million
Suggested AAV: $30.7 million/year ($61.4 million over two years, player option)
FA status: Player option
Let's do it again! James has this constant free-agency thing down to a science, but this would probably be the last summer it's financially more viable for him to sign a short-term deal. Moving past 2016, he'll have full Bird rights, and the cap explosion should stabilize, but most importantly, both the NBA and the NBPA have the right to opt out of the current CBA in December 2016. This could mean an elimination (or loosening) of max deals in the next CBA, allowing James to make his true market value. Then again, it could also mean more restrictive spending penalties, limiting his earning potential.
2. Dwight Howard | Houston Rockets | C
2015-16 salary: $22.4 million
Suggested AAV: $30.7 million/year ($61.4 million over two years)
FA status: Player option
Howard's a lightning rod for criticism, but he's still one of the premier centers in the game for his ability to affect either end of the floor. He's one of the best defensive deterrents at the rim and efficient offensively on the other end. I'd be hesitant to commit long term without some givebacks on the back end, because Howard does rely heavily on his athleticism to be effective.
3. Kevin Durant | Oklahoma City Thunder | SF
2015-16 salary: $20.2 million
Suggested AAV: $27.3 million/year ($81.8 million over three years, player option)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Durant's eligible for five years, $146 million from Oklahoma City. If that number sounds familiar, it's because it's the same deal Anthony Davis signed under the Rose Rule provision. Durant will be one year shy of hitting the 10-year experience mark that bumps him up to the highest max contract bracket (35 percent of the cap), so signing a long-term deal wouldn't be in his best interest. A three-year deal with a player option after the second gives him some security (should injury woes continue to bedevil him), while staying flexible enough to re-enter the market under the 35 percent bracket (or if max contracts get eliminated in the next CBA).
4. Mike Conley | Memphis Grizzlies | PG
2015-16 salary: $9.6 million
Suggested AAV: $24.0 million/year ($96.0 million over four years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
The drop-off between Conley and the next best point guard available on the market next summer is massive, and his representatives will certainly exploit that fact. He's been criminally underrated, perhaps the most of any player in the league, and is a brilliant game-manager, playmaker and tenacious defender who has improved his shooting every year in the league and has one of the deadliest in-between games. The closest "new money" comparison would be Damian Lillard's extension, but whatever Conley signs for is going to be the new standard for point guard contracts.
5. Andre Drummond | Detroit Pistons | C
2015-16 salary: $3.3 million
Suggested AAV: $23.5 million/year ($94.1 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Drummond will be barely 23 years old next summer, with potential to continue growing as a dominant center in the league. He's probably a true point guard away from realizing his full potential, but there will be no shortage of suitors for his services. A four-year max deal with an opt-out after the third keeps his options open.
6. Bradley Beal | Washington Wizards | SG
2015-16 salary: $5.7 million
Suggested AAV: $23.5 million/year ($94.1 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Don't let John Wall see this entry, lest he get even more confused by the concept of a rising cap. Beal has been anointed as the next great shooting guard in the league, and like Conley, he'll benefit from a lack of viable alternatives on the market. Again, a four-year max with an opt-out after three makes him the highest-paid shooting guard, but gives him an opportunity to re-enter the market.
7. Al Horford | Atlanta Hawks | PF/C
2015-16 salary: $12.0 million
Suggested AAV: $22.0 million/year ($88.0 million over four years, partial guarantee)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
If Conley is the most underrated player in the game, Horford isn't far behind. So much of the Hawks' success this past season was predicated on Horford's ability to remain a mismatch on the offensive end while holding his own defensively. One of the main concerns about Horford is durability, as he twice has suffered torn pectoral muscles (albeit different sides), so a partial guarantee based on minutes played in prior seasons could protect the team should he miss significant time.
8. Hassan Whiteside | Miami Heat | C
2015-16 salary: $981,348
Suggested AAV: $18.8 million/year ($56.4 million over three years, team option on third year)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Whiteside burst on the scene last season, but based on his history it was hard for anyone -- even the Heat -- to project he'd be this successful. Whiteside's rags-to-riches rise occurred in his third NBA season; had it happened any earlier, the Heat would have given him a team option on 2015-16 instead of a non-guaranteed year, which would have allowed them to decline that option, turning him into a 2015 restricted free agent. Instead, he'll be an unrestricted free agent with only Early Bird rights, meaning Miami will have to use cap space to pay him market value. Of course, this all depends on Whiteside's ability to stay on his best behavior and continue to produce on a high level on the floor.
9. Chandler Parsons | Dallas Mavericks | SF
2015-16 salary: $15.4 million
Suggested AAV: $18.0 million/year ($54.0 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Given the tumultuous 2015 free agency of the Mavericks, Parsons is in a unique position few could have foreseen when he signed his deal last summer. Combining the cap rise with the opportunity to take a leading role as a focal point of Dallas' offense this season, Parsons can see his value rise significantly, above the $15.6 million he's due this season. As a 6-foot-10, playmaking forward who is a dependable 3-point shooter, he's already a unique proposition. Now he needs to show the ability to take the next step.
10. Timofey Mozgov | Cleveland Cavaliers | C
2015-16 salary: $5.0 million
Suggested AAV: $16.0 million/year ($48.0 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Defensive centers are the anchors of almost every elite defense; defensive centers who are not offensive liabilities are even more valuable as the emphasis on having two-way players at every role-player position grows. The closest comparison would be Robin Lopez, who signed a four-year, $54 million deal this summer with the Knicks and most resembles Mozgov's defensive acumen and offensive dependability.