While the big prizes of NBA free agency have already been claimed, there were a steady stream of moves over the weekend as teams fill out their roster, including a big decision for the Oklahoma City Thunder on whether to match an offer to Enes Kanter and a rare veteran contract extension. Let's break down what all these moves mean.
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Enes Kanter
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Contract: Four years, $70 million (matched offer sheet from Portland Trail Blazers)
What it means: As expected, the Thunder matched Portland's offer sheet to Kanter and will pay the restricted free agent the maximum $70 million over the next four seasons. Oklahoma City now goes over the NBA's luxury-tax threshold and is scheduled to pay $24.5 million in tax, based on my calculations.
Let's start with the obvious: Kanter is not worth $70 million, even as the cap rises. As I wrote Friday, based in part on his poor rating in ESPN's real plus-minus last season (-2.7, 58th among centers), I project Kanter's value at $21 million over the next three seasons. He can exceed that by improving his atrocious defense in the Thunder's scheme and maintaining the production he had on offense after the trade to Oklahoma City, but that's a large gap to make up.
It's easy to see why the Thunder felt they had no choice but to match. They gave up a first-round pick for Kanter barely four months ago at the trade deadline, and choosing not to match wouldn't really give the team much flexibility to replace him. Oklahoma City wouldn't have created cap space by declining to match Kanter's offer and would have simply had the non-taxpayer mid-level exception available.
Now the question becomes whether the Thunder will be a better team with Kanter on the court. Last year's results suggest they will not. Oklahoma City allowed 7.1 more points per 100 possessions when he played, per NBA.com/Stats. Serge Ibaka will help that, certainly. But whether an Ibaka-Kanter pairing will be better than Ibaka and Mitch McGary, let alone Ibaka with Steven Adams, remains to be seen.
What's next: While Thunder ownership has committed to paying the luxury tax this season, it's unlikely Oklahoma City will pay quite as much as currently scheduled. The team can fairly painlessly ease its burden by trading reserves like Perry Jones or waiving Steve Novak and stretching his remaining salary over the next three years, measures that would save many multiples the salary difference because the luxury tax is progressive.
Amar'e Stoudemire
Team: Miami Heat
Contract: One year, $1.5 million
What it means: Stoudemire has entered the stage of his career when he's likely to play year-to-year for the veteran's minimum on contending teams. At that price, Stoudemire still has plenty to offer offensively. He posted a near-.600 true shooting percentage last season while using plays at an above-average rate with both the New York Knicks and the Dallas Mavericks. Stoudemire's defense limits him to a bench role, but he should be a good fit running pick-and-rolls with former Phoenix Suns teammate Goran Dragic in Miami.
What's next: The addition of Stoudemire makes it that much easier for the Heat to deal another big man -- likely Chris Andersen, though possibly Josh McRoberts -- to reduce their luxury-tax bill. With 14 players under guaranteed contract and four more non-guaranteed (including starting center Hassan Whiteside), Miami is done adding players and ready to start subtracting a few.
Boban Marjanovic
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Contract: One year, ???
Jonathon Simmons
Team: Spurs
Contract: Two years, minimum
What it means: The weekend's most interesting addition was a 7-foot-3 giant who has dominated European basketball and would give the Spurs a true center behind starter Tim Duncan. According to Eurohoops.net, Marjanovic will sign a one-year contract for $2 million -- presumably the remainder of San Antonio's cap space after signing Duncan.
Marjanovic has been dominant in Euroleague play during two seasons with Red Star Belgrade. After translating those stats to their NBA equivalent, Marjanovic ranked fourth among Euroleague players in WARP last season and was similarly effective in fewer minutes the previous year. Marjanovic hasn't been quite as good in the Adriatic League, but still projects as an above-average NBA player based largely on his high 2-point percentage and terrific rebounding at both ends. (Oddly, despite his size, Marjanovic is not a great shot blocker.) My SCHOENE projection system comps him to Jordan Hill and Marcin Gortat, among others.
Of course, the Europe-to-NBA translation isn't the same for every player, and Marjanovic's size might not be quite such an asset against better athletes. He saw only limited action for the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA Summer League two years ago, before he emerged as one of the Euroleague's top big men. There's a certain risk that the Spurs have spent precious cap space on a third center who can't help them at all this season. But the upside is nearly as big as Marjanovic's frame, particularly with San Antonio in need of a center to ultimately replace Duncan.
The Spurs also signed Simmons, who has played for their D-League affiliate in Austin, after he starred for the Brooklyn Nets at the Orlando Pro Summer League. According to RealGM.com, Simmons' minimum-salary contract is fully guaranteed for 2015-16. Simmons has shown great leaping ability this summer and hit 39.8 percent of his 3-pointers in the D-League last season, giving him 3-and-D potential (he was chosen for the D-League's All-Defensive Third Team), but he struggled with turnovers and posted just a 13.8 PER.
What's next: Slowly but surely, San Antonio's roster is filling up. Marjanovic and Simmons would give them 12 players, including Manu Ginobili, who will presumably re-sign with the team using the $2.8 million room exception. That would leave the Spurs three more spots to fill using minimum-salary contracts. Veteran free agent Matt Bonner seems likely to take one of those.
Will Barton
Team: Denver Nuggets
Contract: Three years, $11 million
Wilson Chandler
Team: Denver Nuggets (extension)
Contract: Four years, $46.5 million
Nikola Jokic
Team: Denver Nuggets
Contract: Four years, $5.5 million
Jameer Nelson
Team: Denver Nuggets
Contract: Three years, $13.5 million
What it means: Having not yet made a move since the draft, the Nuggets sprung to life with a flurry of moves over the weekend. According to Chris Haynes, Denver will sign restricted free agent Barton to a three-year deal worth $11 million. Barton thrived in the Nuggets' up-tempo system after being acquired at the trade deadline, averaging 16.2 points per game, and he's still just 24. Denver also signed Jokic, the team's 2014 second-round pick, to a four-year deal before he began playing for the team in summer league. A Jokic deal has been anticipated for awhile, and his translated Adriatic stats suggest Jokic could help immediately at the age of 20.
On Monday, ESPN's Marc Stein reported that Jokic's deal is for $5.5 million -- a steal -- and the Nuggets also quietly re-signed Nelson for $13.5 million over the next three seasons. While Nelson's 2017-18 salary may not be fully guaranteed, that's a hefty price for a 33-year-old point guard on a team with a starter (Ty Lawson, who doesn't appear likely to be traded this summer) and a lottery pick (Emmanuel Mudiay) at the position. My projections show Nelson slipping below replacement level by 2016-17.
The Chandler move is most interesting. The Nuggets announced that they renegotiated Chandler's contract and extended it simultaneously, a move that hasn't been done since Nick Collison and Kendrick Perkins with the Oklahoma City Thunder during the 2011-12 season. Just a handful of players around the league are even eligible for renegotiations, which require a contract to be three years old and a team to have cap space to increase the contract. (Renegotiation downward is not allowed.)
So why would Denver renegotiate? Otherwise, Chandler's three-year extension would have been limited to about $25 million because he can't receive a raise of more than 7.5 percent the first season. This restriction is why extensions for veterans have become so rare under the current collective bargaining agreement. (Extensions to rookie contracts, like those signed by Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard, are not limited in the same fashion.)
The Nuggets' solution was to increase Chandler's salary for 2015-16 season, allowing them to pay him more money on an extension. At the same time, giving Chandler a raise this year also allows Denver to effectively buy down the cost of his extension. Based on the reported salaries for Jokic and Nelson (who must be signed using cap space), the Nuggets would have had about $3.7 million in room to increase Chandler's salary this year from $7.1 million to $10.8 million. Given the entire contract was reported at $46.5 million for four years, that means the extension portion of the deal is for three years and about $35.5 million -- not an unreasonable price for a 3-and-D wing, but on the high side even as the cap rises.
What's next: Denver also opted not to waive guard Randy Foye before his contract became guaranteed at the end of business Saturday. The combination of moves gives the Nuggets 14 players on the roster and leaves the team with their room exception to add a 15th player.
Austin Rivers
Team: Los Angeles Clippers (re-sign)
Contract: Two years, $6.4 million
Cole Aldrich
Team: Clippers
Contract: Two years, minimum
What it means: The Clippers brought back Rivers for the most they could possibly pay him next season, $3.1 million. His salary was limited by the New Orleans Pelicans declining the fourth-year option on his rookie contract last fall, prior to Rivers being dealt to the Clippers. The NBA doesn't want agents pressuring teams to decline option years on rookie contracts so the player can be re-signed for more money. Rivers got a two-year deal, but with a player option on the second year; his salary will no longer be limited if he opts out. The Clippers could only have replaced Rivers with a point guard making the veteran's minimum, and his performances during the playoffs showed more upside than players of that ilk.
The Clippers also added some frontcourt depth by signing Aldrich for the minimum to a two-year contract that likewise includes a 2016-17 player option. Aldrich has been productive in limited minutes the past two seasons with the New York Knicks (he averaged 12.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in 2014-15) and was easily the best center option available at that price, though he's limited to backing up DeAndre Jordan since the two centers can't play together at all.
What's next: The Clippers have at least three more roster spots available. A couple of those may be earmarked for re-signing veteran reserves Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu.
Andrea Bargnani
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Contract: Two years, $3 million
What it means: After ESPN's Marc Stein reported Saturday that Bargnani was close to signing with the Sacramento Kings, he reversed course and agreed to a two-year deal for the veteran's minimum in Brooklyn. Bargnani will have a player option on the second season of the deal. He looks a lot better at that price than the $11.5 million he made last season in New York, and there's little financial risk here for the Nets. The downside is Bargnani might not be better than the young big men (Willie Reed and Thomas Robinson) the team recently signed to minimum-salary contracts. He ranked 459th among 474 qualifying players last season in ESPN's real plus-minus.
What's next: With 18 players on their roster (five of them signed to non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts), the Nets are probably done adding players -- but then I said that before they signed Bargnani.
Marcus Thornton
Team: Houston Rockets
Contract: One year, $1.2 million
What it means: Thornton, who made $8.6 million in the last season of a four-year contract in 2014-15, will take a significant pay cut to play for the Rockets at the veteran's minimum. Though overpaid because of his defense, Thornton is a useful scorer. He shot 37.8 percent from beyond the arc last season and averaged 19.0 points per 36 minutes.
What's next: Houston still has to deal with a few of its own free agents, including Josh Smith and restricted free agent K.J. McDaniels. The Rockets would have to dip into their mid-level exception to match an offer sheet to McDaniels, surely one reason they've yet to use it elsewhere.
Alonzo Gee
Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Contract: Two years, $2.75 million
What it means: Having used part of their mid-level exception to re-sign Dante Cunningham, the Pelicans used some of the remainder to sign Gee to a two-year contract worth $2.75 million, according to The Times-Picayune. That's a slight raise after Gee played for the minimum last season. He's a solid defender, though he has never developed the range to be a true 3-and-D player. Gee made 13 3-pointers in 54 games last season.
What's next: New Orleans still has a couple of its own free agents to deal with, most notably backup point guard Norris Cole, who is restricted. The Pelicans could also bring back center Jeff Withey.
Lou Amundson
Team: New York Knicks (re-signed)
Contract: One year, $1.65 million
What it means: The Knicks used the remainder of their cap space to sign Amundson to a contract slightly greater than the veteran's minimum. Unlike Lance Thomas, Amundson probably merits that. He has been a useful if limited reserve over the course of the season and did a nice job of executing the triangle offense after arriving in New York midseason.
What's next: With 12 players under contract along with non-guaranteed wing Ricky Ledo, the Knicks now have their $2.8 million room exception to use. The New York Post reported that using that exception all or in part on re-signing Alexey Shved, who played well for the Knicks last season, is a possibility.
Robert Upshaw
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Contract: Two years, $1.4 million
What it means: Upshaw parlayed an impressive debut in the NBA Summer League into a two-year contract for the minimum salary. According to ESPN.com's Baxter Holmes, some of Upshaw's 2015-16 salary is guaranteed. There has never been any question about the 7-foot-2 Upshaw's talent. He's a prodigious shot blocker who fits well with the Lakers this season because he can fill a role similar to that of starter Roy Hibbert. The issue has always been Upshaw's decisions off the court, which led him to be kicked off two college teams (Fresno State and Washington). At this price, there's little risk for the Lakers if Upshaw repeats those mistakes.
What's next: The Lakers are almost done filling out their roster, though they may add some more guards at the minimum salary.
Luis Montero
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Contract: ???
What it means: Montero, a 6-foot-7 wing with long arms, played at Westchester Community College last season. The Blazers were intrigued enough by his performance in practices leading up to summer league to sign him to what is surely a make-good contract for training camp.
What's next: After Kanter's contract was matched, Portland still has $24.6 million in cap space and has to spend $17.6 million just to get to the salary floor. The Blazers could look at additional offer sheets to players such as McDaniels and Tristan Thompson of the Cleveland Cavaliers as a way to use that money.