During the second round of next week's NBA Draft, you'll hear the names of plenty of players selected who won't play for their teams in 2015-16. Instead, they'll head -- or stay -- overseas to continue improving before potentially coming to the NBA down the line. This is the "draft-and-stash" method that has become a crucial part of drafting.
While many players never develop into NBA-caliber players or pass on the opportunity to come to the league because they can make more money overseas, patience with their picks allowed the Chicago Bulls to add Rookie of the Year runner-up Nikola Mirotic and the San Antonio Spurs to land Manu Ginobili and Tiago Splitter, among others.
To evaluate the talent that might be headed to the NBA in the future, I used translated stats from the D-League, Euroleague, EuroCup, Adriatic League, Spanish ACB, French Pro A to project most players whose rights are held by teams. (A handful have not played in any of these leagues within the past three years.) Based on how stats have translated from these leagues to the NBA in the past, we can get a general sense of their value. These projections are expressed in my per-minute win percentage, where .500 is an average player and .410 is approximately replacement level -- the minimum threshold needed to add value to an NBA roster.
Let's take a look at these ratings and the likelihood of players coming over on a team-by-team basis.
The Hawks won 60 games in 2014-15 without any contributions from their rookie class. While first-round pick Adreian Payne was traded to Minnesota midseason, Atlanta retains the rights to second-round picks Walter Tavares and Lamar Patterson, both of whom could be bench contributors. Tavares has one of the best projections of any stashed player after a breakthrough year in the ACB at age 22, which saw him average 12.6 points, 12.9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Patterson's projection is based on his college stats; he was decent but not quite as impressive playing in Turkey this season. Wing Sergiy Gladyr is still young enough to potentially come over, but both he and Georgios Printezis project as replacement-level contributors.
Colton Iverson was already nearly 24 when he was drafted in the second round two years ago, so he's about to turn 26 and appears unlikely to develop into anything more than a third center in the NBA.
The 59th pick in last year's draft, combo guard Xavier Thames split his first pro season between Spain and the D-League. This projection is based on his Spanish stats, but his translated performance was below replacement level in both leagues.
Chicago Bulls
After bringing over Mirotic this season, the Bulls no longer have any players with NBA potential overseas.
Since being drafted in 2008, Kansas product Sasha Kaun has been one of Europe's top players. He recently told the Lawrence Journal-World that he's done playing overseas and would like to come to the NBA. While that seems unlikely in Cleveland, given the Cavaliers' frontcourt depth and cap issues, Kaun projects as a useful reserve big man for another team. There was some talk of power forward Milan Macvan rejoining his former coach David Blatt with Cleveland last season, but he instead signed a one-year deal with Partizan. Ilkan Karaman's solid projection is based on his 2012-13 performance. He hasn't played since then due to knee injuries that jeopardize his career.
A rare first-round pick who has yet to play in the NBA, Petteri Koponen expressed interest to Marc Stein last fall in coming to the NBA in 2015-16 after completing his contract with BC Khimki. He projects as a combo guard, with Luther Head as the most similar player to his translated statistics. Emir Preldzic is unlikely to make the leap at this point and Renaldas Seibutis no longer looks like an NBA prospect.
In terms of age and NBA translation, no international prospect looks more valuable than Nikola Jokic. I had Jokic rated as the fifth-best prospect in last year's draft, just behind Denver first-round pick Jusuf Nurkic, and he backed that up with another strong season in the Adriatic League. Jokic projects as nearly a league-average player before age 21. The Denver Post recently reported that the Nuggets plan to sign Jokic this summer, and it will be fascinating to see how his game translates. SCHOENE compares him to Enes Kanter, but with 3-point range and better playmaking. Turkish wing Cenk Akyol is the only other NBA-caliber Denver stash. At 28, Akyol is unlikely to take a pay cut to come to the NBA, which is why his rights have been passed around in three trades since February 2014.
Rockets GM Daryl Morey has been aggressive about acquiring the rights to international prospects, and that could pay off soon. Houston coach Kevin McHale recently told a Houston radio station he'd "love to sign" Sergio Llull, a Spanish combo guard whose ability to make open 3s (he projects as about an average 3-point shooter) and act as a second playmaker, could fit well next to James Harden. Like Llull, versatile power forward Marko Todorovic projects as an above-average NBA player because of his high 2-point percentage and strong rebound rate. The Houston Chronicle reported that Todorovic "appears at least a year away" from joining the Rockets. The other Houston stash likely to join the team in the future is Italian guard Alessandro Gentile, who has yet to rate near replacement level by my projections, but is a favorite of scouts.
According to the Indianapolis Star, Stanko Barac will participate in a Pacers mini-camp for free agents this week. There was a time when the center would have been a useful addition to the Indiana rotation, but his production has declined in recent seasons.
L.A. Clippers
Sergei Lishouk's rights have been traded three times in the last 12 months, which suggests they no longer have any value.
L.A. Lakers
Former UConn center Ater Majok had a decent run with impressive shot blocking for the Lakers' D-League affiliates and could be an option for training camp. Chinemelu Elonu, who played at Texas A&M, has spent most of the last three seasons in Turkey, outside the bigger stages of European basketball. He's a long shot.
The Grizzlies made Janis Timma "Mr. Irrelevant" in the 2013 draft, and have seen him grow steadily since then. He was named the VTB United Young Player of the Year this season. Now it's time for Timma to face better European competition to further his development.
If Albert Miralles ever had a chance to play in the NBA, at 33 that point is long past.
Having won Euroleague MVP last season, combo forward Nemanja Bjelica ranks third among stashed players in projected win percentage. He's a versatile contributor who can hold his own on the glass at power forward while stretching the floor and providing playmaking from the position. At 27, now is the time for Bjelica to come to the NBA, whether it's with the Timberwolves or another team that acquires his rights. Bojan Dubljevic, a high-scoring stretch 4 (he averaged 24.4 points per 36 minutes in eight Euroleague games this season), also projects as an NBA rotation player if he comes over, and Dutch big man Henk Norel has some NBA value as well.
The Pelicans didn't necessarily need to get the rights to Latavious Williams in their trade with Oklahoma City at the deadline, suggesting they may value him. A combo forward who played in the D-League instead of in college, Williams has since gone overseas and was a high-percentage shooter in Spain last season.
The Knicks stashed a couple of players in last year's second round. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, younger brother of Giannis, played just up the road in Westchester in the D-League. He provides little value offensively, but his athleticism could make him useful at the defensive end. French stretch 4 Louis Labeyrie may be the better long-term prospect. The New York Post reported in March that Labeyrie will join the Knicks for summer league.
Oklahoma City has the rights to seven players, but of them, only Spanish shooting guard Alex Abrines looks like a rotation-caliber prospect. Alas, the sweet-shooting Abrines just signed a four-year contract extension with FC Barcelona, suggesting the Thunder aren't in his plans for the near future. Two of Oklahoma City's 2014 draft picks, Stanford wing Josh Huestis and Xavier point guard Semaj Christon, spent their first pro season playing with the Thunder's D-League affiliate. Neither projects as above-replacement NBA contributors when they join Oklahoma City, though Heustis' best skill (wing defense) is tough to quantify.
The one who got away, Fran Vazquez is the highest-drafted player to opt against playing in the NBA since the ABA-NBA merger. He preferred to stay in Spain, where he was a top player for years but has slowed in his 30s.
Sam Hinkie has stashed four players from the last two drafts. The most notable is Dario Saric, a lottery pick a year ago. Saric projects as a playmaking 4 in the NBA. He doesn't figure to be an efficient scorer right away -- he shot just 30.6 percent from 3-point range in Euroleague play -- which is why his win percentage is relatively low, but Saric only recently turned 21 and should continue to develop. Arsalan Kazemi, a second-round pick in 2013 based in large part on his strong advanced stats, played in China this season and continued to rack up rebounds and steals. Last year's second-round picks, Jordan McRae and Vasilije Micic, project below replacement level. Micic at least has time on his side. Chu Chu Maduabum, who played most of last season in Estonia, is not an NBA prospect at this point.
The Suns stashed two of their 2014 draft picks. Bogdan Bogdanovic (no relation to Bojan of the Brooklyn Nets) is a highly-touted young wing whose efficiency numbers haven't matched the scouting assessment. He made just 43.4 percent of his 2s and 35.8 percent of his 3s in Euroleague games. And Bogdanovic, who will turn 23 this year, is not especially young. That projection surely flatters second-round pick Alec Brown, a 7-foot-1 center who prefers to play on the perimeter. He was an impressive shot blocker in the D-League after returning from a shoulder injury suffered in summer league, but shot poorly and rebounded like a small forward.
Neither distant Blazers second-round pick has any chance of coming to the NBA at this point.
The Kings got the rights to former UConn and Missouri big man Alex Oriakhi in last summer's Isaiah Thomas sign-and-trade. He might show up in training camp at some point but doesn't really seem to have an NBA future.
San Antonio Spurs
No team has gotten more mileage or accumulated the rights to more prospects from the draft-and-stash than the Spurs, but theredoesn't seem to be a lot of help on the way to San Antonio. The only international Spurs prospect who projects as rotation-caliber at this point is Davis Bertans, a skinny stretch 4 who shot 41.7 percent from 3-point range in Spain this year. Alas, Bertans tore his ACL in March and underwent surgery in San Antonio with the Spurs' team doctor. Americans Marcus Denmon and Deshaun Thomas could join San Antonio for training camp at some point, though they might have a tough time cracking the roster. French post Livio Jean-Charles is a long-term prospect. Jean-Charles missed all of 2013-14 following knee surgery and played limited minutes this year for a French team partially owned by Spurs guard Tony Parker. San Antonio might also have forward Nemanja Dangubic in its future plans after drafting him last year. Dangubic was ineffective in Euroleague play, shooting 41.2 percent on 2s and 34.2 percent on 3s.
Croatian stretch 4 Tomislav Zubcic has expressed some interest in joining the Raptors in the past, but has never developed into an efficient enough scorer in Europe to suggest he could contribute in the NBA. After winning a championship at UConn, DeAndre Daniels played last season in Australia, shooting 42.2 percent on 2s and 34.1 percent on 3s. His projection is based on his college stats.
After acquiring Tibor Pleiss' rights in the Enes Kanter trade at the deadline, the Jazz now owns the rights to both of FC Barcelona's centers. Utah has been trying to bring over starter Ante Tomic since drafting him in 2008. One of the top players in Europe, Tomic reportedly agreed to a new deal with Barcelona in April. Backup Pleiss could be a more realistic, if modest, target. He projects as a good rebounder and high-percentage finisher, though foul-prone and not capable of creating his own offense. The Jazz also drafted point guard Raul "Raulzinho" Neto in the second round of the 2013 draft. Neto hasn't developed as much since then as Utah might have hoped, but he could eventually be a backup point guard.
Yet another FC Barcelona prospect, Tomas Satoransky turned down the Wizards to sign a two-year deal in Spain last summer. He'll have the option of coming to the NBA in the summer of 2016, and Satoransky could help Washington as a backup point guard with enough size (he's 6-foot-7) to play alongside John Wall in addition to backing him up.