During 2013-14, the Phoenix Suns unexpectedly contended for a playoff spot, and that screwed up everything. Phoenix entered that season -- Ryan McDonough's first as general manager -- expecting to rebuild. The overachieving campaign put the Suns in an awkward position between committing to their young players and trying to win immediately. The result was a frustrating 2014-15 season. Phoenix's addition of Isaiah Thomas created a logjam that ultimately led to Goran Dragic forcing his way out at the trade deadline. The Suns ended up winning nine fewer games than the season before.
This summer, with the departures of Dragic and Thomas creating cap space, the Suns faced another crossroads. This time, they have clearly chosen trying to contend. On Wednesday, the first day of NBA free agency, Phoenix agreed with 32-year-old center Tyson Chandler on a reported four-year, $52 million contract. Chandler immediately accelerates Phoenix's timetable.
Projecting the Suns with Chandler
Even without an offseason upgrade, Phoenix was likely to be better than it was a season ago. The Suns collapsed after trading Dragic and Thomas at the deadline, going 10-18 (.357) to slip out of playoff contention in the Western Conference. Jeff Hornacek never got a real chance to coach his new backcourt, with deadline pickup Brandon Knight playing just 11 of those games due to a severely sprained ankle.
When it became clear Phoenix wasn't making the postseason, Hornacek used the final weeks of the schedule as an open tryout for young players like Archie Goodwin and T.J. Warren. After peaking at 38-33, the Suns lost 10 of their final 11 games.
Having quickly locked up Knight (a restricted free agent) to a five-year, $70 million deal, the Suns will have their full complement of players available from the start of next season. And that group will now include Chandler, coming off a bounce-back season for the Dallas Mavericks.
Chandler fills the biggest short-term need in the Suns' lineup. They had a young prospect at the position in 2013 lottery pick Alex Len, who replaced since-departed Miles Plumlee as the starting center midseason. After a promising start, however, Len faded in the second half, and he's not yet a playoff-caliber starter at age 22.
There's no question Chandler fits that bill when healthy. His 14-year career has featured a largely unpredictable series of disappointing, injury-plagued seasons mixed with healthy, productive ones. After missing a combined 43 games due to injury his last two seasons with the New York Knicks, Chandler played all but seven in Dallas, a major reason he was so much more effective.
That's why the best aspect of the move might be Chandler going from one highly regarded athletic training staff to another. In the six years I've been tracking injury data, the Mavericks have lost the fifth-fewest games to injury. During that span, Phoenix has lost the fewest, and the Suns' training staff has succeeded in keeping aging, injury-prone veterans on the court. And with Len as a backup, Phoenix can limit Chandler's minutes, as Dallas did last season.
Though the Suns can still expect a little regression from Chandler given his age, ESPN's real plus-minus projects him as worth about seven wins above replacement (WAR) in 2015-16. Add Len, and Phoenix could get 10 WAR from the position, which provided about three WAR last season.
Thanks to that upgrade, a preliminary RPM projection shows the Suns as about a 46-win team next season. That would probably be enough to claim a low playoff seed in the Western Conference, though Phoenix will face stiff competition. The Oklahoma City Thunder are sure to return to the postseason, and the Utah Jazz surpassed the Suns as the rising West lottery team in the second half of 2014-15.
Chandler legitimizes Phoenix for free agents
The wins Chandler provides on the court next season might not be his most important selling point. It's no coincidence the Phoenix front office wrapped up the deal in time to bring Chandler to a meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge. Specifically, playing next to a defensive-minded center like Chandler should appeal to Aldridge. More generally, adding a veteran in a win-now move helps legitimize the Suns as a destination for top free agents.
A source told ESPN's Marc Stein that Phoenix already had "moved into a contending position" to sign Aldridge. The Suns were once a major destination for free agents, and have the ability to become so again if they can also present stars a credible chance to contend.
To make the next step from playoff contender to actual threat in the West, the Suns will probably need to add a star to their young core of Knight, Eric Bledsoe and forward Markieff Morris. If Chandler helps the Suns do so, the $52 million they spent on him will have been a great investment.