I think there's a two-pronged trick to succeeding in NBA free agency.
First you have to avoid the biggest pitfall of the process, which is to pay someone based on what they've already done as opposed to what they are going to do. It's easy to make the mistake because the player's track record is just that -- a matter of record. Meanwhile the future, as always, is uncertain. Also, the track record matters, because that's all we have when projecting a player forward.
After that, even when you've arrived at an in-house projection you're comfortable with, you have to deal with the second prong: valuation. Given the scarcity, or lack thereof, of a player's future dossier and other market factors, what is that performance going to be worth?
All of this makes free agency more than a matter of "who is better?" because you not only need to find the right guy for your roster in terms of on-court fit, but you have to account for the restricted nature of a player acquisition universe governed by the salary cap and luxury tax limits.
Every dollar overspent is a dollar you can't spend on another player. With that in mind, let's begin our series of "Who's Better: Free-Agency Edition" and compare free agents with similar general profiles. In most cases, it's not difficult to identify which player is "better." Identifying which player teams should actually sign is more nuanced. We'll give it a shot.
Today we begin with wings Jimmy Butler and Khris Middleton
Jimmy Butler, SG
Last team: Chicago Bulls
Season-end age: 25.6
2014-15 WARP (rank): 11.1 (16)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Why Butler is better: Butler was the league's breakout player last season, winning the Most Improved Player award in his fourth season. His career arc is fascinating. He had established a clear level of performance during his first three seasons, that of a defensively valuable role player with a limited offensive game built around his ability to attack the basket off the dribble.
Then suddenly Butler emerged as a dynamic shot-maker and improved his scoring average by 6.9 points, to 20 per game. While he was named to the NBA's All-Defensive second team for the second straight season, in reality the increased offensive responsibility impacted his production on that end. That was reflected in a defensive RPM that slipped from plus-0.40 to minus-0.13.
Still, Butler whomped Middleton when they went head-to-head in the playoffs, and established himself as a bona fide All-Star. He'll draw max contract offers when free agency strikes. There have been whispers that Butler will look for a short-term offer sheet as he's confident he can draw an even bigger max offer in a season or two, after the salary cap shoots upward.
Khris Middleton, SG
Last team: Milwaukee Bucks
Season-end age: 23.7
2014-15 WARP (rank): 5.3 (64)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Why Middleton is better: Middleton doesn't have Butler's rugged build, but he also emerged as a top two-way player, albeit under a dimmer spotlight in Milwaukee than Butler has enjoyed in Chicago. His 2014-15 WARP lags behind Butler's, but he's two years younger, and that WARP (5.3) was roughly what Butler had in his third season (5.1). If Butler's defense was a bit overrated last season, Middleton's was wildly underrated. His defensive RPM (plus-4.08) dwarfed Butler's and led the league among 2-guards.
On offense, Middleton provides less value than Butler, yet he in a way has an easier repertoire to fit into a lineup that already has a primary creator. Middleton is terrific off the ball and has a catch-and-shoot game that is consistent beyond 3-point range. He's also not likely to command anything close to a max offer.
The question is: How much growth is left in his game? He's at an age where improvement can still be expected, yet a six-win leap like Butler posted last season is exceedingly rare. Is the savings likely to be worth what almost certainly will be a production gap?
Verdict: Butler. Let's say you're the Sixers, and you're looking for a young veteran to come in to be your primary perimeter player. In that case, Butler clearly makes more sense, even for the max.
However, you can argue that for most teams, Middleton is actually the better fit. He can guard the same players and score 18-20 points per game with a low time of possession. And he's likely going to cost $3 to $5 million less per season. The clincher is that Butler has averaged nearly 39 minutes per game the past two years and not only is two years older, but he's played 2,284 more minutes. He's also missed 32 games over the past two years, while Middleton has missed three.
Still, we already know that Butler is a star yet to reach his prime, while with Middleton, we're merely hoping he'll become one.