There have been two different Derrick Roses in the Chicago Bulls' opening-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks, which continues Monday with Game 5 at the United Center.
During Chicago's wins in Games 1 and 3, Rose has looked like the player who was named the league's MVP in 2010-11, a year before suffering a torn ACL in the playoffs that altered the trajectory of his career. But in Games 2 and 4, Rose has looked more like the lesser player who has suffered through an inconsistent 2014-15 campaign. The numbers suggest the split persona is not random. Instead, it's a matter of rest.
Rest makes difference for D-Rose
Of the 55 games he has played this season, including the playoffs, Rose has played 38 with either zero or one day's rest. Before the other 17 games, he has had at least two days off. The difference between those two groups of games is striking:
In back-to-backs or games with one day of rest, Rose has made just 43.0 percent of his 2-point attempts and 28.6 percent from beyond the arc. Those marks go up to 56.1 percent and 31.9 percent, respectively, when Rose has at least two days between games.
Perhaps more remarkable is the difference in Rose's free throw rate. When given multiple days of rest, Rose attempts nearly one free throw for each three field goal attempts, not far off the rate he posted during his MVP campaign (.348). On limited rest, Rose takes less than one free throw for every five field goal attempts.
The combination of more accurate shooting and more free throws makes Rose a much more valuable player with at least two days of rest. His true shooting percentage improves from a rate that would have ranked 261st among players with at least 1,000 minutes this season (tied with teammate Kirk Hinrich) to tied for 44th among this group with Goran Dragic and Richard Jefferson.
Even more notable is the difference in the Bulls' performance at a team level. They outscored opponents by 10.8 points per 48 minutes with a rested Rose on the court, as opposed to by just 1.8 points per 48 minutes when Rose played with zero or one day's rest. Chicago has gone 12-5 (.706) when Rose plays with at least two days' rest, compared with 24-14 (.632) when he is less rested.
All of those statistics are consistent with Rose's performance in this series. Games 1 and 3 have come after two days off, and Rose has been dynamite in those games, combining for 57 points on 21-of-39 shooting. His play in the two games on a single day's rest has been more uneven: 15 assists, but against 11 turnovers (eight in Saturday's Game 4 alone) and 29 points on 9-of-7 shooting. And Game 4 was also the Bulls' only loss to the Milwaukee Bucks thus far, extending the series to a fifth game Monday night.
Prognosis going forward
There's bad news and there's good news for Rose in terms of rest. The downside is he had just one day between Game 4 and Game 5 against Milwaukee, putting it in the short rest category. On the plus side, Chicago will have at least two days off after Game 5 no matter what. If the Bucks manage to force the series back to Milwaukee, Game 6 would be played Thursday. A Bulls win would allow them to prepare for a semifinal series with the Cleveland Cavaliers that wouldn't begin until Saturday.
Looking ahead, Rose is going to have to find a way to succeed on short rest. Assuming a semifinal series begins Saturday, Rose will have at least one break of multiple days between games. However, for the most part teams will play every other day from here on out. So if Chicago is to advance deeper into the postseason, Rose likely will need to find a way to be more productive on one day's rest.
News and notes
• While nearly every other series appears headed to quick resolution, with three sweeps this weekend and one more possible tonight (the Memphis Grizzlies lead the Portland Trail Blazers 3-0), the anticipated matchup between the L.A. Clippers and the San Antonio Spurs remains the exception. The series is tied 2-2 and looks likely to go a full seven games.
Despite the Clippers having home-court advantage in two of the remaining three games, ESPN's BPI projections still make San Antonio a slight favorite, winning 51.3 percent of the time. Thanks to their 27-point win in Friday's Game 3, the Spurs have outscored the Clippers by seven points in the series thus far. But the Clippers have looked like heavyweights in their own rights in their two comfortable wins, and two more performances like that would eliminate the defending champions in the opening round.
• Besides Clippers-Spurs, the story of the weekend was injuries. The Cavaliers' 101-93 closeout win to sweep the Boston Celtics was costly, with power forward Kevin Love dislocating his left shoulder when he got tangled up with Celtics center Kelly Olynyk.
Although a final diagnosis is pending an MRI back in Cleveland, a source told ESPN's Brian Windhorst that some Cavaliers players were told Love would miss a minimum of two weeks. That would put his availability for a possible conference semifinal matchup against the Bulls in jeopardy. Cleveland might also be without guard J.R. Smith for some of the series after Smith whacked Boston forward Jae Crowder in the face, drawing an ejection and possible suspension. Playing without Love and Smith would leave the Cavaliers temporarily with just five players who have averaged more than 11.5 minutes per game in the postseason.
• Memphis guard Mike Conley suffered another key injury, leaving Saturday's Game 3 in the third quarter after getting accidentally hit in the face by Portland's C.J. McCollum. Conley has returned home for further evaluation and will miss Monday's possible closeout Game 4.
The Grizzlies were able to survive the fourth quarter Saturday night without Conley and backup Beno Udrih, who missed the game with a sprained ankle. In their absence, Nick Calathes stepped up with the most important performance of his NBA career, playing 27 turnover-free minutes and contributing 13 points and three assists off the bench. Udrih says he plans to return to the lineup for Game 4, which will give Memphis coach Dave Joerger two experienced options at point guard.