As teams complete their seasons, ESPN Insider's NBA team will take a look at the offseason picture and priorities for all 30 teams. Below, Kevin Pelton offers a snapshot of the Toronto Raptors.
2014-15 record: 49-33
Pythagorean record: 49-33
Offensive Rating: 108.1 (3rd)
Defensive Rating: 104.8 (23rd)
Draft Picks
Own first-round pick (20th)
Projected Cap Space
Maximum: $15.7 million
Minimum: $0
Likely: $0
What's Returning
Four of the Raptors' five regular starters since the Rudy Gay trade are under contract, highlighted by the backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. After playing the best basketball of any Eastern Conference point guard in the first half of the season, Lowry broke down physically and wasn't the same player in the second half or in the playoffs. That's disconcerting in the first season of a four-year contract, but Lowry's first-half play was consistent with his 2013-14 performance, and it's likely he'll bounce back.
DeRozan's lofty scoring averages (20.1 PPG in 2014-15, down from 22.7 in 2013-14) overstate his value because he's a volume scorer (.510 true shooting percentage), but his ability to get to the free throw line is important to the Toronto offense.
The most interesting player on the roster is center Jonas Valanciunas, who had his long-awaited statistical breakthrough in his third season. Valanciunas averaged 16.5 points and 11.9 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting an impressive 57.2 percent from the field. Yet the Raptors were outscored with Valanciunas on the court and he continues to sit fourth quarters, making a possible rookie extension this fall a tricky negotiation.
Wing Terrence Ross is also entering the final season of his rookie contract and remains something of an enigma. Ross failed to take a step forward and lost his starting job for part of the second half. Reserves Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez saw heavy action, often in place of the younger Ross and Valanciunas. Recent Brazilian first-round picks Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira spent their rookie seasons developing.
Free Agents
Fresh off a Drake song ("6 Man") and the Sixth Man Award, Lou Williams hits unrestricted free agency. Williams won't be 29 until October and demonstrated he's fully back from a torn ACL, setting him up for the biggest payday of his career.
Veteran Amir Johnson, who moved to the bench late in the regular season and for the playoffs, is also unrestricted. Johnson is just 27 (28 in May), but he's been in the league for a decade after coming directly out of high school, and his troublesome ankles raise questions about his long-term health. That might make it tough for Johnson to get a raise on his $7 million salary in 2014-15.
Tyler Hansbrough replaced Johnson in the starting lineup by virtue of the best net plus-minus on the team. Toronto was 9.9 points per 100 possessions better with Hansbrough on the court, per NBA.com/Stats.
Biggest Need: Rebounding
The Raptors finished 25th in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage, a flaw that haunted them in the playoffs. The Washington Wizards had 29 offensive boards in their first two wins, overwhelming Toronto with second chances. The Raptors particularly struggled with their second-unit frontcourt of Johnson and Patterson. Such lineups grabbed just 71.1 percent of all available defensive rebounds, according to NBA.com/Stats, which would have ranked last in the NBA.
Biggest Question: Is this Raptors group good enough to seriously contend?
During the first two months of the season, as Toronto started 24-7, it looked like the Raptors had a chance to win the Eastern Conference. Such high hopes were crushed during the second half, as the Raptors played below-.500 basketball after the All-Star break and were then eliminated in the opening round for a second consecutive season. This time, Toronto was clearly the weaker team in the series, making it more difficult to be hopeful entering the summer.
Remember, Raptors GM Masai Ujiri was close to rebuilding after trading Gay, before a deal that would have sent Lowry to the New York Knicks fell through. At that point, Toronto's unexpected success gave Ujiri little choice but to stick with this core. Now, Ujiri might be ready to make changes on the sidelines or on the roster. If he doesn't think this team is good enough to win big, get ready for a Raptors makeover.
Ideal Offseason
Williams doesn't get the kind of offers he'd like as a free agent and takes a one-year deal in Toronto to try again in the summer of 2016. The Raptors also re-sign Johnson to a one-year contract. To change the mix, Ujiri deals Ross and a first-round pick to the Denver Nuggets for Wilson Chandler, who offers more size and rebounding at small forward. Adding Chandler, an impending free agent, allows Toronto to maintain the flexibility to clear some $40 million in cap space after the 2015-16 season if the team is unable to break through in the playoffs.