As teams complete their seasons, ESPN Insider's NBA team will take a look at the offseason picture and priorities for all 30 teams. Below, Kevin Pelton offers a snapshot of the Dallas Mavericks. Check out all the Roster Reloads and Marc Stein Scoops.
2014-15 record: 50-32
Pythagorean record: 49-33
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 103.7 (18th)
Draft picks
Own first-round pick (21st)
Own second-round pick (52nd)
Projected cap space
Maximum: $33.7 million
Minimum: $0
Likely: $0
What's returning
The Mavericks have a league-low three players signed to guaranteed contracts for 2015-16: guard Devin Harris and forwards Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons. At 36, Nowitzki took an inevitable step backward this season, posting his lowest true shooting percentage (.560) since his rookie campaign. Nowitzki's shooting ability still poses problems for opponents. Alas, his immobility creates them for Dallas on defense.
Between a slow start and questions about his conditioning, and a knee injury that sidelined him nearly the entire playoffs, Parsons put together a solid first season with the Mavericks. He averaged a career-high 17.1 points per 36 minutes. Until the cap goes up, Parsons will be slightly overpaid; together, he and Nowitzki -- who sacrificed salary so Dallas would have the room to sign Parsons -- are a good value at the forward spots.
Harris can be penciled in to back up both guard spots with solid all-around play, a role he's filled the past two seasons after returning to the Mavericks. Point guard Raymond Felton, who was mothballed much of the season before providing some good minutes late in the year, surely will pick up his player option.
Free agents
Three Dallas starters will hit free agency, along with every reserve but Harris. The most notable names are Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis, who ranked first (Ellis) and second (Chandler) on the team in minutes played and anchored the offense and defense, respectively.
Unless the Mavericks can land a marquee frontcourt free agent like LaMarcus Aldridge, Chandler figures to be back on a smaller salary than the $14.6 million he made in 2014-15. Ellis is a trickier call. At times, his tendency to look for his own shot was problematic for a Dallas offense that effectively used him as a point guard. However, the Mavericks have no obvious replacement lined up, meaning a new deal for Ellis could make sense at the right price point.
It's pretty clear by now that Rajon Rondo won't be back after Dallas' experiment with him at point guard failed. The Mavericks' offense gummed up with Rondo playing next to Ellis, another non-shooter who needs the ball in his hands, and Rondo chafed with coach Rick Carlisle in his small role. After a back injury ended Rondo's season, Carlisle told reporters that he didn't expect Rondo to return.
After the starters, the most important free agent might be backup forward Al-Farouq Aminu. The longtime favorite of ESPN's real plus-minus delivered the defensive versatility and rebounding Dallas expected, playing both forward spots. Aminu is sure to opt for free agency rather than another season at the veteran's minimum.
Veteran reserves J.J. Barea, Richard Jefferson and Amar'e Stoudemire are all free agents, as well.
Biggest need: stability
Besides Nowitzki, reserve post Bernard James was the only player on last season's roster who has played more than two consecutive seasons in Dallas. And even James wasn't re-signed until February after being waived during training camp.
Since winning the 2011 championship, the Mavericks have lurched from short-term solution to short-term solution in the name of maintaining flexibility. Early in the year, when they had the league's best offense, that strategy looked wise. Trading for Rondo proved one deal too many, and now Dallas might find itself starting all over yet again.
Biggest question: cap space or Bird rights?
In theory, the Mavericks could have more than $30 million in cap space. In practice, they might not have any. Dallas must choose between maximizing its space and maintaining the rights to Chandler and Ellis, among others. That will probably be determined by whether the Mavericks can quickly interest a player such as Aldridge, a Dallas native. If the top tier of free agents passes, the Mavericks will probably re-sign Chandler at a smaller cap figure and then decide between Ellis and a more modest amount of room to sign outside players.
Ideal offseason
It's a homecoming for Aldridge, who signs a max contract to team with Nowitzki as the NBA's best midrange-shooting frontcourt ever. With their remaining $12 million in room, the Mavericks sign DeMarre Carroll to start at shooting guard, then fill out their roster with undervalued players in the Aminu mold. Felton and Harris prove a competent rotation at point guard, and Dallas runs pick-and-pop after pick-and-pop en route to the league's best offensive rating. The Mavericks then hit free agency in the summer of 2016 with enough money to sign a top-tier point guard to join the offensive-minded group.