The NBA was shocked and saddened by Tuesday night's news that Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose has suffered another medial meniscus tear in his right knee -- the same injury that sidelined him the balance of the 2013-14 season -- and will need to undergo surgery.
The rest of the Bulls don't have time for such emotions. They return to action Wednesday night, hosting the Charlotte Hornets, and must again prepare to play without their starting point guard for an extended stretch. What can we expect from Chicago without Rose? Let's take a look.
Projecting the Bulls without Rose
The silver lining is this Chicago roster is better equipped to handle Rose's absence than were the previous two, as I noted early in the season. On paper, this looked like the best Bulls team around Rose since the 2011-12 season, when Chicago went 18-9 during the 27 games he missed due to injury during the regular season. That has played out as projected, helping the Bulls overcome an up-and-down season from Rose.
Per NBA.com/Stats, Chicago has outscored opponents by 3.5 points per 100 possessions with Rose on the bench, not a significant drop from the team's plus-4.0 net rating with Rose on the court. And the Bulls have gone 7-4 in the 11 games Rose has missed (.636) -- actually slightly better than their .630 winning percentage when Rose plays (29-17).
So a projection based on the multiseason version of ESPN's real plus-minus suggests Chicago can expect to play at the level of about a 51-win team in Rose's absence, basically the same as the Bulls' current 52-win pace.
Rose's timetable for a return will depend in large part on what kind of surgery he has. Last season, he underwent a meniscus repair to try to preserve the meniscus intact, sidelining him for several months. A meniscectomy that removes only the torn portion would have a shorter timetable, though it could still end Rose's regular season -- with seven weeks remaining as of Wednesday.
Assuming Rose is out for the regular season, my simulations of the remainder of the season show Chicago and the Cleveland Cavaliers in a dead heat for the Central Division title and a possible No. 2 seed at 51.9 wins apiece on average (with the Toronto Raptors, averaging 52.5 wins, leading the race for the second seed). The Cavaliers do have the edge in winning the division thanks to a 2-1 season series lead, with the final game set for April 5 in Cleveland. Because the Washington Wizards have struggled recently, home-court advantage appears safe for the Bulls. They dropped to fifth in just five percent of simulations.
Lost opportunity to jell
The real cost of Rose's injury to Chicago isn't knocking the team off its current pace, but instead preventing the Bulls from coming together for the stretch run. They'd started to show signs of that extra gear over the past 2½ weeks, going 6-1. During the past 10 games, Chicago's plus-5.9 point differential ranked tied for fourth in the NBA with the Memphis Grizzlies. Before Rose was sidelined, the Bulls were the healthiest they'd been all season, dealing only with illness to guard Kirk Hinrich and forward Taj Gibson. Tony Snell's emergence had given Chicago more depth on the wing.
Coming back from last year's knee surgery and his previous ACL injury, Rose had struggled to score efficiently all season. The team's recent surge had little to do with his play, as Rose had shot just 18.0 percent from 3-point range over the past 10 games. Still, for the Bulls to ascend to the same level as the East-leading Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland, which has won 17 of its past 19 games, they needed Rose operating at a high level.
That may still be possible if Rose has relatively little damage to his meniscus and is able to return before the end of the regular season. But the complication of yet another absence and comeback would make it difficult for Rose to find consistency even if his season is not over. While Chicago still looks like a competitive team in the East thanks to its depth and the emergency of Jimmy Butler as a go-to scorer, the chances of the Bulls winning the conference or a championship took a major hit with Rose's injury.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.