Editor's note: Welcome to NBA Insider Daily! Devoted readers familiar with the "Per Diem" column can still look forward to both Kevin Pelton and Tom Haberstroh this season, and they are joined by fellow Insiders Bradford Doolittle and Amin Elhassan. Every day, one of them will tackle the big topics in the NBA from every perspective including advanced metrics, scouting and reporting.
There's something interesting about the 57-win projection for the Chicago Bulls from my SCHOENE projection system: It's got almost nothing to do with Derrick Rose.
In fact, because of the injuries that have marred his past two seasons, the 2010-11 MVP is projected for just 4.1 wins above a replacement-level player, putting him on par with Josh McRoberts and John Henson. Yet Chicago is projected to finish behind only the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs in the West, and that's a testament to the roster the Bulls have built around Rose.
It's tempting to believe that Rose's absence was the difference between the Chicago teams that posted the NBA's best regular-season records in both 2010-11 and 2011-12 (tying with the San Antonio Spurs the latter season) and the lesser squads the past two campaigns. But while head coach Tom Thibodeau managed to wring the most out of limited talent to reach the playoffs and even win a postseason series in 2013, the Bulls weren't nearly as effective as they had been with Rose on the bench the previous two seasons.
Even when Rose was voted the league's most valuable player, Chicago was an elite team with him watching from the bench. Behind a second unit featuring Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, the Bulls outscored opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions without Rose in 2010-11, per NBA.com/Stats. In 2011-12, they actually improved that mark to 8.2 points per 100 possessions without Rose -- as good as the 50-16 Spurs were overall.
While the 2010-11 rating mostly reflects the quality of the bench, the following (lockout-shortened) season Rose missed 27 out of the 66 regular-season games due to a variety of injuries. Chicago went 18-9 in those games with John Lucas III and C.J. Watson filling in for Rose, a 55-win pace over a full season.
So when the Bulls won 45 and 48 games the past two seasons, respectively, it wasn't only because of Rose's injuries. Chicago's depth was compromised by losing Asik and Korver, both of whom have emerged as quality starters on other teams.
With ample cap space this summer after using the amnesty provision to waive aging forward Carlos Boozer, Chicago was finally able to rebuild that depth. The Bulls added Pau Gasol in free agency, brought promising 2011 first-round pick Nikola Mirotic to the NBA from Europe and acquired Doug McDermott in the draft, rebuilding their frontcourt. The front office has given Thibodeau his deepest roster since 2011-12, one with far more scoring threats than last season's team that ranked 28th in offensive rating.
ESPN analyst George Karl was impressed by the makeover, declaring in a recent NBA Front Office discussion that the Bulls "have the best talent they've had on their team around Derrick Rose since he's been there."
At the very least, the numbers suggest Chicago's talent is on par with 2011-12. If Rose is removed entirely from SCHOENE's projection, and his minutes redistributed to backup point guards Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks and E'Twaun Moore, the Bulls are still projected to win 54 games -- nearly the same pace as when Rose was out of the lineup in 2011-12.
Certainly, they lived up to that hype in Wednesday's season opener against the New York Knicks. Chicago outscored the Knicks by just four points during Rose's 21 minutes of action, but ran away from New York with Rose on the bench. The Bulls were plus-20 in the 27 minutes Rose spent watching from the sidelines.
Make no mistake: Rose's recovery still is crucial for Chicago's championship hopes. If the Bulls hope to get past the Cleveland Cavaliers (Friday night's opponent on ESPN) in the playoffs, they'll need Rose operating at something near the level he reached in 2010-11 and 2011-12. But the rebuilt Bulls roster is talented and deep enough that Chicago could survive another extended Rose absence and still remain in contention in the East.
News and notes
• Friday is the final day for rookie extensions, as Amin Elhassan discussed Thursday. It looks like we're also going to get a rare veteran extension, with Cleveland Cavaliers starting center Anderson Varejao apparently adding three years and $30 million to his deal, as reported by ESPN's Marc Stein. The key to this deal will be the guaranteed money. The Cavaliers have been aggressive about protecting themselves -- and creating trade chips -- with non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed deals, and that could mitigate the risk of Varejao declining due to age or injury down the line. For now, Varejao is a crucial part of Cleveland's core, and locking him up is a positive.
• Halloween is also the deadline for teams to pick up the options on the third and fourth years of rookie contracts. Only one player's future still appears to be up in the air: Knicks point guard Shane Larkin, who had nine points, five assists and five steals on Thursday night starting in place of injured Jose Calderon, helping his chances.
If Larkin's option isn't picked up, he'd join Nemanja Nedovic of the Golden State Warriors as the only 2013 draft picks to meet that fate. Nedovic has struggled with injuries and was ineffective during the NBA summer league, and the Warriors will be flirting with the luxury tax if they re-sign (or extend) shooting guard Klay Thompson. Of the three 2012 draft picks still on rosters whose options weren't picked up (John Jenkins, Austin Rivers and Thomas Robinson), cap issues also played a role for both Rivers and Robinson, whose teams might use cap space next summer depending how things play out.
• Interesting strategy late in Thursday night's Detroit Pistons-Minnesota Timberwolves game. Down five with 44.2 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, the Pistons inbounded the ball to Andre Drummond and Nikola Pekovic rushed out to foul him intentionally. Intentional fouls off the ball are not legal in the final two minutes, but since Drummond had the ball, the play was fine. Was it smart? Tough to say. Minnesota reduced the chance of Detroit hitting a 3, but also took less time off the clock. Drummond made one of two free throws and the Pistons rebounded the miss, but failed to score and eventually lost 97-91.
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter: @kpelton.