It's been an up-and-down season for the Oklahoma City Thunder. The peaks mostly have come during the rare stretches when Thunder stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have been healthy, and the valleys when they have not. Earlier this season, Oklahoma City struggled to a 3-12 start with its stars ailing, a hole that the Thunder didn't quite dig out of until their current six-game winning streak.
Just when it looked like Oklahoma City was going to put a stranglehold on the last playoff spot in the West, down goes Durant again. Perhaps, as the team says, there is no new injury and hopefully Durant won't be out long. The bottom line is the Thunder must hold off the New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns without the league's greatest scorer, at least for a period of time.
While there is no doubt that the Thunder will miss a player of Durant's caliber for as long as he's out, the fact is Oklahoma City is much better positioned to withstand his absence than it was earlier in the season. After the dealing of general manager Sam Presti at last Thursday's trade deadline, the Thunder feature a deeper, more stable and more experienced roster than the one they opened the season with. In fact, only one team in the league has strengthened its roster more since the season tipped off on Oct. 28.
To measure this effect, I went to the columns of my system (NBAPET) that calculate the ongoing win percentage baseline for every player in the league. The idea is to capture the "true talent" behind the performance of each player and watch how it evolves as the season progresses. The system looks at the last three years of data plus current season performance, weighs recent production more heavily and tacks on a standard aging adjustment. The end result isn't as rigorous as the formal projections we put together in the preseason, but it does give you an idea of where each player is in his career. More so than by simply looking at what he's done this season, if only because of statistical regression.
Finally, by using the new win percentage baseline and the actual number of minutes each player is on pace to play this season, we can estimate how many wins above replacement (WARP) each player will be worth going forward. When you tally up these WARP totals for the teams as their rosters stood on opening night, and compare it to the sum for current rosters, we can at a glance see which GMs have added the most win-ready production to their teams since the season began.
Let's look at the top five most improved rosters.
1. Miami Heat: (16.5 added WARP)
No, the Heat have not yet made up for the loss of LeBron James. And it should also be noted that the system is not factoring in Chris Bosh's season-ending medical condition, so that gives Miami a little bit of a boost. But no matter how you couch it, Pat Riley has improved his team's baseline expectation more than any other executive since the season began.
There are two obvious reasons: Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside's baseline is exaggerated of course -- his unsustainable .800-level winning percentage is the domain of peak-level Hall of Famers like James, Kevin Garnett and Shaquille O'Neal. But since minutes are factored in, that doesn't explain the entire number. It doesn't hurt that Riley has ridded his roster of sub-replacement producers like Norris Cole and Danny Granger.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (9.9 added WARP)
Despite the presence of three stars like Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, the Oklahoma City baseline at the season's outset was bogged down by the lack of proven production through much of the rest of the roster. Since then, almost every move Presti has made has improved the baseline. Reggie Jackson is a fine player, on pace for 2.5 WARP for the season. However, Kendrick Perkins (472nd) and Lance Thomas (473rd) were the league's two lowest-rated players by WARP.
Newcomer D.J. Augustin has a better winning percentage than Jackson, while Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler are both better than replacement. Dion Waiters has been better for the Thunder than he was for Cleveland, and Mitch McGary has emerged as a key contributor. Now Oklahoma City is one of the deepest teams around and much better situated to survive with Durant out, especially with such a home-heavy schedule.
3. Houston Rockets (6.6 added WARP)
Like the Thunder, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has improved his club's depth over the course of the season with key additions like Josh Smith, Corey Brewer, Pablo Prigioni and K.J. McDaniels. Houston has battled its own health issues with Dwight Howard out, but the Rockets have managed to hang with the contenders in the West.
That's because while Houston has a .688 winning percentage during Howard's 32 games, its .667 mark in 24 games without him is barely a drop-off. Without Morey's dealing, that probably wouldn't be the case.
4. Memphis Grizzlies (4.2 added WARP)
This ranking is mostly due to the acquisition of Jeff Green. Since picking up Green from Boston on Jan. 12, the Grizzlies have gone 15-3 while posting the league's second-best defensive rating. The move not only added a valuable producer in Green but removed the unproductive Tayshaun Prince from the mix.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (4.2 added WARP)
The system recognizes the addition of Perkins, which on the balance sheet hurts the Cavs but not enough to negate the work David Griffin has done to improve his team's shot at a title run. Waiters was below replacement, making the upgrade to J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert all the more significant. And let's not forget about Timofey Mozgov, who has not only filled in capably for the injured Anderson Varejao but has given Cleveland's interior defense a much-needed boost.
Finally, while you don't want to kick a team while it's down, the bottom of these standings features the New York Knicks, who rank 30th by losing 9.1 WARP since the season began. The departures of Smith, Shumpert, Amar'e Stoudemire and Prigioni -- all defensible moves in the big picture -- are not nearly offset by the solid addition of Langston Galloway. And really it's worse than this. Since season-ending injuries weren't flagged, they system doesn't know that Carmelo Anthony won't play again.
News and notes
My colleagues Kevin Pelton and Tom Haberstroh have ably explained the analytical case for the decision of 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie to deal point guard Michael Carter-Williams for the protected Lakers first-rounder that had been the property of the Phoenix Suns.
Their takes run countercurrent to my own, as expressed when I graded the deal after the deadline on Thursday, so I wanted to expand on my thoughts just a bit.
I've always preached against team-building strategies that consign a team to mediocrity, though I never imagined that any executive would adhere to the principle with the fervor of Sam Hinkie. But I believe the end goal of all team builders is to win a title, and high-risk decisions are part and parcel of achieving that aim. The biggest part of that is to avoid investing in the wrong players. Obviously Hinkie felt Carter-Williams was the wrong player, because he valued whatever potential that will come with the Lakers' pick more than the potential of last year's rookie of the year.
There are many analysts who agree with that assessment. I think what it comes down to is your opinion of Carter-Williams, who has undeniably lacked bottom-line impact since entering the NBA. He has put up numbers, of course, but with the startling inefficiency that comes with so many missed shots and turnovers. Nevertheless, MCW is potentially an elite defender at his position, especially when you factor in his ability to play the passing lanes and clean the defensive glass. And the offense, to be frank, I see as impossible to judge based on his stint with the Sixers.
Not only did he play with a revolving door of D-League-level teammates as a pro, but he's done so with an ailing shoulder on his shooting arm that led to surgery after last season. I'm not claiming he's a good shooter, but I think given the circumstances in Philly, we can't rule out that he can eventually become at least adequate. Part of that will surely be better teammates, which should lead to fewer forced shots and fewer miscues.
Meanwhile, Carter-Williams has put up numbers over two seasons not unlike his new coach in Milwaukee did in his first two NBA seasons. Hall of Famer Magic Johnson, in fact, declared that Carter-Williams is the next Jason Kidd, who in turn said when MCW was introduced in Milwaukee that hopefully his new point guard will be more like Magic. Well, Johnson is the only player since the ABA-NBA merger to put up more haughty per-possession stats in points, rebounds and assists than Carter-Williams.
Don't get me wrong -- Carter-Williams has nowhere near the ceiling of Kidd or Magic. However, he does have a wide cross section of skills that add value, especially when you consider his potential on defense. And who knows, Kidd learned how to shoot that standstill 3, so who's to say after his shoulder is right that Carter-Williams won't do something similar? Meanwhile, if the Lakers don't beat the odds and escape the top five of this year's draft and go out and improve with that selection, and if you factor in the return of Kobe Bryant and Julius Randle and adding two impact players with their cap space -- that coveted pick could turn out to be no big deal.
Either way, it's weighing potential of what you have versus the potential of what you might get. Meanwhile, Hinkie's strategy of swinging for the fences and gradually upgrading assets -- a term he's careful never to use -- is awfully slow to take root. The Sixers have dropped to the bottom of the league in attendance, which is no surprise being that there is nothing to root for. How do you root for a future pick? How do you root for a rebuilding plan that might not pay off for at least five years?
And there is another issue at play. One executive, speaking of league trends in general, told me that continuity is the "absolute biggest commodity" around the NBA right now. So far, the Sixers' only constant under Hinkie has been nonstop change. At some point, you have to put a team out there and see what you have.