With Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green and Timofey Mozgov already traded earlier this season, Thursday's trade deadline figured to be pretty quiet. But this is the NBA. Nothing goes as planned.
Nothing.
Thursday was trade deadline mayhem. A record-breaking 39 players were traded among 17 teams Thursday. With that in mind, here are the winners and losers of the 2014-15 trade deadline.
Winners
Miami Heat
Pat Riley does it again. Despite Bosh being out for the season, Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside should contend with the very best in the league. Riley exchanged two borderline NBA players (Norris Cole and Shawne Williams) along with two first-rounders for an elite point guard who has 6,000 fewer minutes on his legs than fellow 2008 draftee Russell Westbrook. That's three fewer seasons of mileage for Dragic, who will be 29 years old in May.
Dragic is the NBA's best finishing guard, converting 70.5 percent of his shots within 3 feet, which is a smidge better than some guy named LeBron James. And according to Insider pal Kevin Pelton's research, "the Dragon" averages 20.9 points and 7.4 assists per 36 minutes when he's the lone point guard, which he will be in Miami.
This is a home run not just because Dragic was third-team All-NBA last season. Not just because the Heat didn't give up a key player. But because the point guard situation was on life support. The Heat's point guard position has a 9-point PER deficit compared to its counterpart this season, and according to 82games.com tracking, it's the worst differential in the NBA at any position. Considering the status quo, this is like going from a rotary phone to smartphone. With Dragic running the point, no one will want to face the Heat in the first round of the playoffs.
Of course, with Bosh missing the season with a blood clot in his lungs, it is an incredibly unfortunate circumstance for the Heat, who just struck a franchise-changing deal. But this is bigger than basketball. Best wishes to Bosh.
Portland Trail Blazers
Arron Afflalo is a great buy-low candidate. A career 39.2 percent 3-point shooter heading into the season, Afflalo shot just 33.7 percent from deep in Denver this season, his lowest figure since he remade his shot in 2008. Everything says he's better than what he's shown thus far this season.
Good news for Afflalo's shooting percentages: Portland boasts one of the spaciest offenses in the league with Damian Lillard running the point. That'll make things easier for Afflalo to get his mojo back on the perimeter and on post-ups. No longer will he have to create offense with two paint-dwelling bigs as he did with Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic. Adding a second-unit anchor to a weak bench at the cost of a lottery-protected 2016 first-round pick is the type of move that championship contenders need to make while the window is still open.
Oklahoma City Thunder
My man Pelton isn't as high on this trade as I am, but I'm bullish on the Thunder's haul. Thunder general manager Sam Presti almost always moves a young player before he hits free agency if they don't intend on keeping him; just ask James Harden, Jeff Green and Eric Maynor. Now add Reggie Jackson to the list.
They upgraded the bench with Kyle Singler providing more two-way depth on the wing and Enes Kanter getting a fresh start in Oklahoma City. Though Kendrick Perkins has had somewhat of a resurgent season, I'd rather gamble with the 22-year-old who averages 18.4 points and 10.4 rebounds per 36 minutes and a 17.5 PER than a 30-year-old Perkins, whom I named the league's LVP this time last season.
D.J. Augustin has the potential to be an upgrade to Jackson as well. According to player tracking data from Vantage Sports, Augustin has been a far superior facilitator this season than Jackson, who was hunting for a big payday often at the expense of his teammates. The Thunder need the playmaking. Since taking over the starting gig in Brandon Jennings' place, Augustin was averaging 20.3 points and 8.2 rebounds per game.
The Thunder did relinquish a protected 2017 first-round pick to get Kanter, but like Portland, the Thunder's championship window is right now. The clock is ticking on Kevin Durant's free agency. This makes the Thunder better in the short term, which is where their priorities need to be at this point.
P. Diddy's 'I'm Coming Home'
Minnesota and Detroit fans, get used to this song. After Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince return to their respective NBA roots, those piano chords will be on loop for months. P. Diddy strikes again.
Philadelphia 76ers
This was simply Business 101 for the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers took Michael Carter-Williams, the 11th pick in a weak 2013 NBA draft, boosted his trade value by playing at an outrageous pace and letting him play through mistakes, then flipped him for a likely high lottery pick in a potentially stronger 2015 draft. Carter-Williams could be a fine player one day, but his numbers are mostly hollow. His minus-1.64 real plus-minus ranks 50th among point guards. Not in the entire NBA. Fiftieth at his position.
So Sam Hinkie somehow parlayed Carter-Williams into one of the most golden assets in the league, the Lakers' top-five protected 2015 first-rounder via Phoenix. According to ESPN's BPI model, the most likely pick slot that the Lakers generate this season is the sixth pick (17.2 percent chance), in which case the Sixers get it. On top of their own pick. If the Sixers don't get it this season, it moves to the 2016 draft, where it is a top-three protected pick. That's a heist for one of the least impactful point guards in the league.
Trading freak athlete K.J. McDaniels to Houston for Isaiah Canaan and a second-rounder puts a dent in the Sixers' strong day, but getting that Lakers pick and another first-rounder for taking JaVale McGee's contract (more on this later) trumps that McDaniels blemish easily. Especially if they had no intention of matching McDaniels' salary when he becomes a coveted restricted free agent this summer.
Losers
Boston Celtics
Talking around the league, the biggest question mark from trade deadline day belongs to the C's. It seemed as though Marcus Smart was destined to be the point guard of the future for the Celtics, but now they've muddled that with Isaiah Thomas, who doesn't seem to have gotten along with anybody in his short time in the league. And now you put him with Smart?
On the surface, Thomas looks like a solid player, but he doesn't fit with Boston's plans right now. By adding Thomas for a likely late first-round pick in 2016, it looks as though the Celtics are trying to get stuck in the wheel of mediocrity when they should be trying to accumulate more long-term assets.
Denver Nuggets
This is why you don't hastily try to make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference after losing 2012-13 Executive of the Year Masai Ujiri and 2012-13 Coach of the Year George Karl. Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly tried to make a splash in his first couple of seasons on the job by adding significant long-term payroll in the form of J.J. Hickson, Kenneth Faried and bizarrely trading for multiyear contracts owed to Jameer Nelson, Randy Foye and Arron Afflalo. Just a whole bunch of head-scratching moves that set the franchise back.
And then the McGee salary dump happened. Shedding the rest of McGee's $12 million is an odd priority in the first place, considering he is still 29 and can help bolster Denver's frontcourt depth if healthy. At worst, he sits on the bench, doesn't play and seeks a buyout. Instead, the Nuggets panicked and sent a first-rounder to Philly to take him off their hands.
The 76ers had almost no leverage in these talks and they pried out a prized asset from the Nuggets. A second-rounder wouldn't do? Hinkie ran circles around Connelly in this one. Sure, the Nuggets netted a similar first-round pick for Afflalo, but I'd rather have intriguing 22-year-old Evan Fournier, whom the Nuggets traded to Orlando to take on Afflalo's contract this summer. Maybe getting rid of the McGee contract was a mandate from ownership, but I still don't know who the Nuggets are trying to be.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Goosebumps are expensive these days, I guess. Yes, bringing Garnett back to Minnesota will be a heartwarming story filled with hugs and fuzzies, but why not just sign Garnett for the veteran minimum this summer instead of trading away Thaddeus Young and adding money to the payroll now?
The worst part is that the Timberwolves gave up a first-rounder to Philly in order to acquire Young -- a versatile big man who is just 26 years old -- this past summer. And Garnett's salary is about $3 million more expensive than Young's contract. During a trying season, it seems as if head coach and president Flip Saunders let his emotions get the best of him. If reports out of Minnesota are true that the team plans to give Garnett a two-year extension, this seems like an excessively pricey Hallmark card.
News and notes
• After watching the DeAndre Jordan brickfest Thursday night, I'd like to reiterate that Hack-a-Shaq is not basketball. No one wants to watch free throws. The coaches don't. The fans don't. Sure as heck the league office execs, who desperately want a shorter game, don't. If you argue that the NBA shouldn't try to establish a rule to make the game better because it would tarnish the purity of basketball and insult James Naismith, then maybe we should eliminate the shot clock, too.
• For more on the futility of Hack-a-DeAndre, here's the latest from a FiveThirtyEight.com study.
• Speaking of FiveThirtyEight, I can't recommend this spiffy visualization enough. Look at how the Blazers and Heat mirror each other until halfway through the third quarter; take a gander at the sheer dominance of Atlanta and Golden State; the Cinderella act of the Phoenix Suns. I could go on and on. As they always say, a visualization is worth 1,000 articles.
• The passing of Jerome Kersey, 52, is crushing loss to the NBA family. Gone far too soon. His unfortunate passing also reminds us to take blood clots seriously, especially in light of Bosh's, Mirza Teletovic's and Anderson Varejao's recent diagnoses.