Last season, good health was key to the Portland Trail Blazers' surprising success. In the first half of the season, no Blazers starter missed a game, and the team used just two starting lineups all season. The Blazers lost the second-fewest minutes and wins to injury in the NBA.
While Portland's strong play has carried over to 2014-15, that good health hasn't. The Blazers suffered their latest blow Thursday, when an MRI revealed that star forward LaMarcus Aldridge tore the radial collateral ligament in his left thumb during Monday's win over the Sacramento Kings. Surgery will sideline Aldridge for approximately six to eight weeks.
It would be one thing if Aldridge alone were injured. Portland actually played 13 games without Aldridge last season -- he was the only starter not to play all 82 games -- and went a respectable 8-5 without him. But this time, Aldridge joins starting center Robin Lopez (fractured third and fourth metacarpals, right hand) and backup Joel Freeland (sprained shoulder) on the sideline. While the Blazers hope to get Freeland back in coming days, Lopez may not return before the All-Star break.
Those injuries have left coach Terry Stotts with just three true healthy big men: Chris Kaman, Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson. And matters went from bad to worse later Thursday night when starting forward Nicolas Batum left Portland's game with the Boston Celtics after aggravating a sprained wrist he's been playing through. Without all three frontcourt starters for almost the entire second half of the game, the Blazers lost a heartbreaker when Evan Turner made a game-winning 3-pointer with 1.0 second remaining.
The good news is that Portland has built a healthy cushion, particularly in the Northwest Division, leading the Oklahoma City Thunder by eight games. The bad news is the Blazers may need all of it.
Projecting Portland
Using the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (similar to what is used in FiveThirtyEight's new RPM power rankings) and my estimates of playing time, I projected Portland's performance without both Aldridge and Lopez, and with only Aldridge injured. RPM suggests the Blazers would win about 45 games over a full season with Aldridge out of the lineup, and 39 games with neither of their starting big men. Those figures are against an average schedule, and Portland's will be anything but. Having played one of the league's easiest schedules to date, the Blazers have one of the most difficult the rest of the way.
Assuming that Lopez returns at the All-Star break and Aldridge misses seven weeks, the midpoint of his estimated return time, I ran 1,000 simulations of the remainder of the season. The results were not good for Portland. Remarkably, the Blazers finished on average with just a half-win more than Oklahoma City (50.5 to 49.9).
With the help of a 2-0 lead over the Thunder in the season series, and a game to be played at home after Aldridge is expected to return, Portland still won the Northwest more often than not (58 percent of the time). However, it may become important to note that though winning the division guarantees a top-four seed, it does not guarantee home-court advantage if the fifth seed has a superior record. As a result, the Blazers secured home court just 23 percent of the time. (The simulation suggests there's about a 60 percent chance that whoever wins the Northwest will have a worse record than the fifth seed.)
It's worth noting that there are several conservative assumptions about the simulations from Portland's perspective. There's a chance that I'm underestimating the Blazers with a healthy Lopez. As noted, the Blazers managed just fine without Aldridge a year ago, spreading the floor by putting 3-point specialist Dorell Wright at power forward in Aldridge's place. And either Aldridge or Lopez could come back sooner than the average timetable. I'm also assuming Oklahoma City will avoid another major injury that could doom its playoff hopes.
Still, a division race that appeared all but over at the start of the week is now back on due to Portland's injuries. Already, the Thunder have made up two games this week by sweeping a back-to-back on the road while the Blazers dropped their last two games. Portland will have to work hard -- and stay healthy -- to avoid a continued drop in the standings.
News and notes
• After an MRI revealed that Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant has a torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder that he played through during Wednesday's loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, it's worth revisiting how the Lakers have performed without Bryant this season.
The Lakers are 2-6 (.250) when Bryant sits out, slightly worse than their .286 record when he plays (10-25). However, their minus-1.1 point differential in those games is far better than their minus-7.0 points per game with Bryant. Much of that can be traced to what has to be the season's most inexplicable result: the short-handed Lakers, at home, beating the Golden State Warriors by 10 on Dec. 23 in the first game Bryant missed this season. Since then, the Lakers have struggled to score without Bryant, though their defense has been better in those games. Ultimately, whether Bryant's season is ended by the shoulder injury may not have much impact on the Lakers' position in the lottery.
• Bryant's health could have an important effect on the Western Conference All-Star team. Bryant was voted a starter in the backcourt alongside Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors. That leaves James Harden, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson and Russell Westbrook battling for a maximum of four reserve spots for guards, unless the league stretches the definition and calls Thompson a frontcourt player. If Bryant sits out, all those players could make the roster, though it might not be enough for the deserving Mike Conley to make his first All-Star game.
In the East, Kyle Lowry used a late push led by the Toronto Raptors' organization to overtake Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat. That leaves the decision on Wade in the hands of coaches, who will have to balance Wade's productivity with his time missed to injuries.
• Last week, I noted that Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose was on track for the worst 3-point percentage in NBA history among players with at least five attempts per game. That's quickly changed in a big way. Entering Friday's game against the Dallas Mavericks, Rose has made 20-of-36 3-pointers (.556) in his subsequent five games, lifting his season mark all the way from 25.4 percent to 31.5 percent -- safely out of historical territory. (Rose no longer even ranks in the bottom 10 in 3-point percentage among the high-volume group.)
The 15 combined triples Rose made in three games last week (Wednesday, Friday and Saturday) were the most in a three-game span in his career, shattering his previous record of 11. In the last two games, Rose has dialed back on the 3-pointers with positive results, getting to the basket more frequently. Overall, Rose has averaged 24.8 PPG with a .616 true shooting percentage in the last five games, delivering at an All-Star level.
• Anonymous Philadelphia 76ers rookie Jerami Grant delivered one of the season's most improbable performances Wednesday, blocking a career-high eight shots by the New York Knicks. That's nearly half as many blocks as Grant had totaled in either of his two seasons at Syracuse (18). The son of longtime NBA forward Harvey Grant (and nephew of Horace and brother of NBA prospect Jerian) has been slightly more prolific in the pros but entered Wednesday averaging less than a block per game, and with a high of three.
Grant's performance is especially noteworthy since he played just 25 minutes. According to Basketball-Reference.com, that's the most blocks by a player in 25 minutes or fewer this season, and the most since Serge Ibaka had eight in 24 minutes in March 2011. (Hat tip: Dan Feldman).
• Weekly top five: Best players never to make an All-Star Game
5. Derek Harper
4. Josh Smith
3. Marcus Camby
2. Andre Miller
1. Rod Strickland
Honorable mentions: Mike Bibby, Lamar Odom, Arvydas Sabonis, Jason Terry
Follow Kevin Pelton on Twitter @kpelton.