Are seniors worth drafting?

Chad Ford Big Board 4.0

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Ford's latest Big Board 3.0 was released Wednesday and three seniors -- Delon Wright, Frank Kaminsky and Jerian Grant -- are in the top 30. That leads us to the question every 76ers fan has to be asking right now…

In years past, NBA GMs have really shied away from drafting seniors high in the draft. Can any of them be future stars?

Pelton: I think there's sometimes a stereotype that statistical analysts are against all older players in the draft. In general, it's true that age is an important predictor of future success, but that's only relative to level of performance. A truly dominant senior can shine statistically, and that's what we see with Kaminsky and Wright, who are ranked among my top 12 prospects in terms of projected WARP.

Kaminsky currently sits sixth, and he has a good chance at ultimately finishing in the top five. I don't know whether I see stardom in the cards for him in the NBA, but I think he could be a valuable -- and underrated -- role player in the mold of Channing Frye and Spencer Hawes. Wright is 12th in projected WARP but is tops in terms of projected performance in 2015-16 as a rookie. A team drafting him can expect instant contributions, especially if it builds a second unit around him as a playmaker with the ball in his hands.

Grant is a bit trickier. He's been terrific this season -- I actually rate him as the best player in the country, based on per-minute stats translated to their NBA equivalents. However, 2014-15 carries relatively little weight in the projections because the sample is still small and because earlier college years actually project NBA performance better than more recent ones. Odds are Grant won't continue to make nearly three-quarters of his 3-point attempts. So his WARP projection ranks only 51st.

Ford: I think another reason it's easy to hate on the senior class in any given season is the fact that, by their senior year, most of the talented players in their incoming high school class have already bolted for the NBA. This year's senior class graduated from high school in 2011.

TheESPN 100 from 2011 tells the story. The top five players from that draft class -- Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Austin Rivers and Bradley Beal -- all bolted for the NBA after their freshman seasons. Nine of the top 10 and 17 of the top 20 left school before their senior seasons. Overall, a total of 29 of the top 50 players in the high school class of 2011 have already left school. Many of them are thriving in the NBA.

We'd feel totally differently about the senior class if Davis, Drummond, Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Michael Carter-Williams, Cody Zeller, Otto Porter Jr. and Trey Burke were headlining it.

By the time we get to evaluating seniors, much of the talent pool already is depleted. Still, there always are a few seniors worth taking a look at. Last year, Doug McDermott went 10th in the draft. Three years ago, a senior, Damian Lillard, went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year.

Of the three seniors on my Big Board, Wright ranks the highest on my board right now, coming in at 17th. I suspect that's in large part because of the dearth of point guards in the draft right now. He's big and quick, and he can make plays and get to the rim. He's not a great shooter yet, but, with so few draft prospects projecting as starting-caliber point guards in the NBA, he's floating up the board quickly.

Kaminsky is right behind him, and I agree with everything you wrote. He absolutely looks like the second coming of Frye. He won't be a superstar, but he has a long NBA future ahead of him if he can keep knocking down shots on the perimeter.

Grant, I suspect, is underrated statistically as well as in the eyes of scouts. He has all the physical tools you want, has produced at a high level for the past two seasons, has a high basketball IQ and feel for the game and has an improving jump shot. Had he not had to miss the second half of last season because of academic issues, I think he would've cracked the 2014 NBA draft first round. As the season goes on, I think he'll rise. Right now, he's the best point guard in the country in my opinion.

There are another 10 seniors ranked somewhere between 31 and 100 in Ford's Top 100. Any of them stand out as potential sleepers in the draft?

Pelton: The one who really stands out to me is Alan Williams of UC Santa Barbara. He's off to another great start with six double-doubles in nine games, including 22 points, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks in a 10-point loss at Kansas. I suspect Williams is in the top 100 almost entirely because of how well he grades out statistically. His WARP projection ranks 13th, but I bet there are some teams who don't have Williams in their top 100.

Ford: The only other senior in my top 60 right now is UCLA's Norman Powell.

Two things stand out about Powell. This is the first season at UCLA when he has really been given the keys to the team. He has responded by scoring 17.4 PPG and shooting a terrific 47 percent from 3. He clearly is an NBA-caliber athlete and defender. The questions were always about his offense. He has improved so dramatically this season that it's hard to know whether this season is just a statistical anomaly or whether he really has improved. I've been skeptical, but, after watching a few UCLA games this year, I have been impressed.

The other nine in the top 100 are Kenneth Smith, Alan Williams, Rakeem Christmas, Juwan Staten, Treveon Graham, Jonathan Holmes, Levi Randolph, Quinn Cook and Dez Wells.

Of the group, Graham and Williams appear to be garnering the most buzz from NBA teams right now, although Christmas and Holmes and Cook have all snuck into the top 60 on some teams' boards. Williams has been a monster statistically, but his lack of size and athleticism for his position clearly worries scouts.

One guy worth noting is Oklahoma State's Le'Bryan Nash. He is the only remaining player from that 2011 ESPN 100 top 10 who is still in school. Although Nash is having an excellent senior season (17.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG), NBA teams largely regard him as a tweener stuck between the 3 and 4 positions. The fact that he's 0-for-14 over the past two seasons from beyond the arc is telling. As is the fact that he has the lowest WARP projection of anyone in Kevin's database at the moment. Yikes.

Every week we ask each of you to identify a potential draft sleeper for us. Who has caught your attention this week?

Pelton: Gary Payton II, G, Oregon State

Earlier this week, GPII made headlines by posting the Beavers' first triple-double since his Hall of Fame father recorded one 26 years ago. This Payton, a JC transfer, has been one of the nation's most productive players so far, stuffing the stat sheet. He is one of three players in the nation with steal and block rates both better than 4.0 percent in at least 200 minutes, and is one of the nation's top 150 defensive rebounders from the backcourt. As a result, he rates as one of the nation's top 10 players this season by my translated stats. Payton has done this against a weak schedule, and he's sharing playmaking responsibilities, but are scouts taking notice? Could there be another Payton in the NBA?

Ford: That's a nice call. I don't think he had garnered much attention at all from NBA scouts until he netted that triple-double against Grambling State on Monday (10 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists, 6 steals). When I called around to scouts, none of them had scouted him live and a few had just started watching video. I'm doing the same. You're putting him on the radar, Kevin. From early glances, he looks as if he could make a rapid rise on the board if he can keep that type of play up in conference play. As I said, the NBA is hungry for point guards right now, and the name recognition should keep him in the conversation.

I'll stay in the Pac-12 with another junior and another point guard: Tyrone Wallace, PG, Jr., Cal

Wallace made the leap up to No. 33 on my Top 100 this week after leading Cal to a terrific 9-1 start. After two fairly blasé seasons for Cal, he's been terrific this year, dramatically improving in virtually every area of the game. He has the size of a NBA point guard, is a smooth athlete, sees the floor well, is a rebounding machine for a guard and is even shooting the 3-pointer at a 46 percent clip this season. While many scouts have been scouting Cal to get a better feel for Jabari Bird, most of them have come away raving about Wallace. Again, this is a weak point guard draft and NBA teams love big point guards. What do the numbers say?

Pelton: The story with Wallace is similar to Grant. He doesn't grade out quite as well this season because his true shooting percentage has been merely average, but Wallace would project around where you have him ranked based solely on this season. He wasn't as effective his first two years at Cal, however, so his WARP projection still is slightly negative.