Here's a breakdown of the Rockets-Kings deal:
Rockets get: Guard Jason Terry, two second-round picks
Kings get: Forward Alonzo Gee, another non-guaranteed contract
Houston Rockets: B
I suspect the Rockets are looking at this trade as one with no downside. At worst, they've turned non-guaranteed contracts (either Scotty Hopson or Josh Powell, or perhaps both, will join Gee as part of the package) they were going to waive into a couple of potentially useful second-round picks.
At best, perhaps Terry can revive his career back in the Lone Star State. We're only two seasons removed from Terry posting a respectable 3.2 wins above replacement player (WARP) off the bench during his lone campaign with the Boston Celtics. Terry slipped below replacement level in 2013-14 in Brooklyn, and at nearly 37 he might not be able to climb out of that hole. My SCHOENE projection system suggests based on the performance of similar players at the same age there's about a one-in-four chance Terry plays at replacement level or worse in 2014-15.
Terry's salary isn't a big issue for Houston, which should still have enough room under the tax line to use the full trade exception created by sending Jeremy Lin to the Los Angeles Lakers if such a deal arises. The more precious resource for the Rockets is roster spots; Terry gives them 15 players with guaranteed contracts, along with starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who has a non-guaranteed deal but isn't going anywhere. So Terry will bump someone off the roster, assuming he makes the team.
Sacramento Kings: B+
All things considered, the Kings paid relatively little to clear Terry's $5.85 million salary this season off the books. Remember, last week the Clippers gave up a first-round pick to be rid of Jared Dudley's $4.25 million salary in 2015-16. The second-round picks Sacramento gives up -- one of them apparently coming from the New York Knicks via a previous trade this summer -- could be early in the round, but don't have the upside of a first-round pick.
The question is what exactly the Kings are clearing space for at this point. According to ESPN's Marc Stein, they also waived guard Wayne Ellington (acquired from the Knicks in the aforementioned trade) before Sunday's deadline for stretching salaries over the next three seasons. The combination of moves leaves Sacramento approximately $8 million below the tax line, presuming the Kings waive all non-guaranteed contracts from this trade and officially sign forward Omri Casspi, as long rumored.
That's more than enough space for Sacramento to make use of the $7.2 million trade exception created by signing-and-trading Isaiah Thomas to the Phoenix Suns. How the Kings might use the exception is tough to see now, but they've certainly got a great deal of flexibility leading up to next February's trade deadline. The fascinating question that will never be answered is whether Sacramento would have played Thomas' free agency differently had the Kings known they would be able to avoid the tax so easily. Alas, that decision is in the past.
