Day 2 of NBA free agency 2014 brought a tiny bit more sanity to the world, although it was not without its now-prerequisite terrible contract of the day. Regardless, it was nice to see some more reasonable deals get struck.
Dirk Nowitzki agreed to a new, three-year, $30 million deal in Dallas, effectively taking a more than 66 percent pay cut, while Darren Collison (three years, $16 million) and Thabo Sefolosha (three years, $12 million) came to terms with the Kings and Hawks, respectively.
Here's a quick analysis of those transactions. As always, please check my Free-Agent Big Board from the start of free agency for a feel for what I deemed to be "fair market value" of the top 30 free agents.
Nowitzki re-signs with the Mavs
I was at the Steve Nash Charity Soccer Showdown the day before the draft, and Dirk was in attendance as one of the participants. He definitely seemed to be relaxed and at ease (although his soccer talents are probably best left not displayed), which I chalked up to the news of Tyson Chandler's return to Dallas. But in retrospect, he probably also knew he'd secure his future in a little over a week. With the new, three-year deal, Nowitzki assures he'll retire a Maverick, cementing his place as the greatest player in franchise history. The deal he signed is not far off the two-year, $25 million deal I valued him at in my Big Board and is comparable to the deals Tim Duncan has been signing over the past few years, designed to give the franchise incredible flexibility to craft a roster that can transition to the next era.
Like Duncan, Nowitzki will be able to take a reduced role in his team's offense, keeping him fresher and allowing him to be productive for much longer; in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if this isn't Nowitzki's last contract. He's still a 7-footer with a high release and an exaggerated rainbow trajectory on his shot that makes his jumper the second-most unguardable shot in basketball (behind Kareem's sky hook). That's a skill that won't go away easily. And while he's slowed down considerably defensively and isn't the prolific rebounder he was earlier in his career, the Chandler acquisition was aimed at addressing many of those issues and covering for him.
Unlike Duncan, Nowitzki's supporting cast still has a lot of question marks: Who is his Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard? That remains to be seen, as the Mavs continue to chase big names via free agency. Monta Ellis might fancy himself as Parker-caliber player, but the Mavs are still in desperate need of true point guard after dealing Jose Calderon in the Chandler trade. They also need a defensive wing, preferably one who can score as well (basically, they need Leonard). The truth is Dallas is still a work in progress, but thanks to the deal Nowitzki accepted, there's work that can actually be done.
Collison signs with the Kings
OK, enough with the feel-good contract of Nowitzki, let's get back to the madness of free agency. Apparently, the Kings looked at their roster and said, "You know what we need? A shoot-first, diminutive point guard. That's what we've been missing!" And then they proceeded to blow their entire midlevel exception toward that end. Collison had a solid season as a backup with the Clippers, but his best minutes came playing alongside Chris Paul, when the burden of running the team offense was not on him. His shot-happy ways wore out his welcome in both Indiana and Dallas, his previous stops, and his defense oscillates between plain bad and atrocious. Collison is best used as a spark plug off the bench; someone to come in and bring scoring punch and perhaps a change of pace. In Sacramento, however, he won't be asked to do that; according to Dan Woike of the Orange County Register, one of the key selling points for Collison was the opportunity to be the starter. Again, I'm not sure how the Kings went through their roster appraisal at the end of the year and surmised signing another shoot-first player was the solution.
Which brings up the next point: If the Kings wanted to overpay a small, shoot-first point guard, why wouldn't they pay their own restricted free agent, Isaiah Thomas? Thomas is a better version of Collison: better penetrator, finisher at the rim, passer and defender (although that's not saying much). As a restricted free agent, the Kings hold the right of first refusal, so they could have intimidated would-be suitors all summer long with the threat of a match. Moreover, they could have signed him using Bird rights, meaning they'd still have that full midlevel exception to spend on other needs. The only logical explanation is they plan on involving Thomas in a sign-and-trade for more talent. However, this brings up another problem with using the full midlevel exception on Collison: Since they used a benefit earmarked for non-taxpayers, the Kings have now triggered the hard cap at $81 million, greatly reducing their flexibility for the upcoming season. There better be a "next shoe" to drop, otherwise this was a puzzling deal to say the least.
Sefolosha signs with the Hawks
Sefolosha's signing in Atlanta makes more sense: He is still a high-level defensive wing, and while his 3-point range mysteriously abandoned him this season, he posted back-to-back 40-plus percent efforts from downtown in the previous two seasons, including a prolific 108-for-258 (42 percent) in 2012-13. For the Hawks, Sefolosha at $4 million for three years represents an opportunity to lock up a top role player at a position that is experiencing serious inflation (look no further than Avery Bradley's four-year, $32 million deal in Boston; Bradley is younger, but he's also smaller). The price tag ended up being in the same price range as my valuation (three years, $9 million, with a partial guarantee on the final year), and if Sefolosha can regain his range, it might turn into a steal of a deal.