Editor's Note: This board has been updated as of July 2. No signings are official until the NBA's moratorium on free agent signings concludes on July 10.
It's finally here! The NBA's equivalent of Christmas Eve, and every team is excited for the gift-wrapped free agents they expect under their trees. There are the standard popular toys (Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James), the hot new release (Chandler Parsons), the factory recall (Danny Granger) and the one that's sold out already (Zach Randolph).
We've seen a flurry of trades, with teams aiming to set their ducks in a row and maximize their flexibility in order to effectively pursue their targets. For some teams, they'll be buying at the high-end boutiques, looking for franchise cornerstones; for others, the shopping list takes them to thrift stores and big-box retailers, looking for discount deals on quality merchandise.
The following is my fourth ranking of 2014's free agents, sorted by the AAV (average annual value) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA. To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I used as a member of the Phoenix Suns' front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things.
Please remember: This is not a ranking of the best free agents -- it lines them up based on projected AAV; and the AAVs listed below represent my estimation of the approximate value of each player, not a prediction of what the player will receive on the market in 2014.
1. LeBron James | SF | UFA
2013-14 Team: Miami Heat 2013-14
James
2013-14 Salary: $19.1 million
Suggested AAV: $23.2 million/year, three years, player option on Year 3
If the new CBA deserves half "credit" for getting players to leave money on the table in exchange for creating more competitive teams, James certainly deserves the lion's share of the other half of that credit, as he's created a trend in which, as a free agent, he controls the destinies of so many different players around the league. He's thrown us all for a loop, however, by allegedly setting his demand at max, which puts pressure on everyone else to take the discount to play with him. A three-year, $69.5 million deal with a player option is max with a shorter contract length, allowing him to exit earlier and never get stuck in a bad situation.
2. Carmelo Anthony | SF | UFA
Anthony
2013-14 Team: New York Knicks
2013-14 Salary: $21.4 million
Suggested AAV: $19.2 million/year, four years, player option on Year 4
Welcome to the new NBA, where veteran players realize making the maximum amount allowable probably hinders your ability to win. The new CBA has created a situation where there is a definite trade-off between wins and the amount of space you occupy on the payroll. For Anthony, any hopes of achieving something greater than his own individual excellence lies in his being able to go to a situation that has the flexibility to continue to build around him. That's not to say New York can't be that destination; it just means if he makes the maximum allowable ($129 million over five years if he stays; $96 million over four years if he leaves) he'll be dooming himself to more of the same. A four-year deal starting at $18 million and ascending (with raises) to an average of $19.2 million gives him the opportunity to join something special or have something special built around him.
3. Chris Bosh | PF/C | UFA
Bosh
2013-14 Team: Miami Heat 2013-14
2013-14 Salary: $19.1 million
Suggested AAV: $17.25 million/year, five years, partial guarantee on final year
Unlike many of the other marquee free agents on the market, Bosh truly knows that not only is the grass not greener on the other side, but it's often poison ivy. He's played for lottery-bound teams with subpar talent playing before sparse crowds, and appreciates the experience he's had in Miami. In many ways, he sacrificed the most in that he gave up his statistics and standing as the marquee power forward in the game, all for the sake of winning. A five-year, $86.25 million deal gives him long-term security, but I'd only guarantee $3.25 million in his final year, allowing an out for the team. It would also allow the Heat to start him at $15 million, giving them breathing room in the immediacy.
4. Greg Monroe | C | RFA
Monroe
2013-14 Team: Detroit Pistons
2013-14 Salary: $4.1 million
Suggested AAV: $14.5 million/year, four years
Getting a high-end player to take a discount on his fourth contract is a lot easier than convincing a player coming off his rookie scale to skim off the top. High-end players already have amassed take-home salaries that look like the GDPs of small nations. But it's not as easy for Monroe. This is his first big contract, and he holds very important leverage: a dearth of young, talented bigs on the free-agent market this summer. Close comp Derrick Favors signed a four-year, $48 million deal last fall; had he waited, he could have cashed in on the rising cap and thin market for bigs. Monroe is in the driver's seat, but I wouldn't commit to more than a four-year, $58 million deal.
5. Dwyane Wade | SG | UFA
Wade
2013-14 Team: Miami Heat
2013-14 Salary: $18.7 million
Suggested AAV: $13.75 million/year, four years, partial guarantee on last year
Wade's in a slightly different situation than his teammates in that he's not giving a discount per se; there's no way he could have earned anything close to the $42 million over two years he opted out from. It's a shame his 2013-14 season will be remembered by his struggles in the Finals, because he was very productive in earlier playoff rounds. The next step for Wade is to transition to a Ginobili-like role: less minutes, more impact. By becoming a free agent, he allows himself to make more guaranteed money, even though his AAV has dropped. A four-year, $55 million deal gives him $10 million more in guaranteed cash, and gives the Heat wiggle room.
6. Dirk Nowitzki | PF | UFA
Nowitzki
2013-14 Team: Dallas Mavericks
2013-14 Salary: $22.7 million
Suggested AAV: $12.5 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Update: According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, Nowitzki has agreed to a three-year contract with $30 million contract with the Mavericks. Nowitzki now gets to do his best Tim Duncan impersonation by taking a massive pay cut from last year in order to ensure the Mavs are competing well in his twilight years. Like Duncan, Nowitzki still can produce at a high level, and so this figure is really based on his desire to play with better teammates, not his actual value.
7. Eric Bledsoe | PG | RFA
Bledsoe
2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
2013-14 Salary: $2.6 million
Suggested AAV: $11.5 million/year, four years
Like Monroe, Bledsoe is a restricted free agent who is going to benefit from a lack of free-agent options at his position (his main competition is Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas). One thing that will weigh on the Suns' mind in any offer is trying to remain flexible for future free-agency markets and inadvertently setting the market for point guards, since fellow Suns guard Goran Dragic has an opt-out in 2015. Going by comp deals like Stephen Curry, Ty Lawson and Jrue Holiday, Bledsoe's $46 million over four years keeps him in line with the best young point guards in the game, although not quite max.
8. Pau Gasol | F/C | UFA
Gasol
2013-14 Team: Los Angeles Lakers
2013-14 Salary: $19.3 million
Suggested AAV: $11.3 million/year, three years, non-guaranteed third year
He's not elite anymore, but Gasol still is a high-level defensive rebounder and effective scorer in the post with a reliable midrange jumper. More importantly, he's a high basketball IQ player and excellent passer from either block, and has the championship DNA to help a team competing for a title. He can barely move on defense, but if you can mask his flaws, he can be extremely valuable.
9. Chandler Parsons | SF | RFA
Parsons
2013-14 Team: Houston Rockets
2013-14 Salary: $926,500
Suggested AAV: $10 million/year, four years
The unexpected addition of Parsons to the free-agent frenzy gives shoppers another versatile, playmaking wing who can stroke it from the outside. By declining his fourth-year team option, the Rockets made Parsons a restricted free agent and retained the right of first refusal (as opposed to letting him finish his fourth year and risk him walking away with no ability to match). When looking at recent deals for wings, like Tyreke Evans and DeMar DeRozan, a four-year, $40 million deal is more than appropriate.
10. Gordon Hayward | SF | RFA
Hayward
2013-14 Team: Utah Jazz
2013-14 Salary: $3.5 million
Suggested AAV: $10 million/year, four years
Hayward bears a similarity to Parsons in style of play, but did not benefit from the high-level help that Parsons did. He's the better player, but struggled mightily in his contract year. It will take a massive deal to get Utah not to match, but Hayward's at the $10 million AAV mark as well; wings are inherently easier to replace than point guards and bigs, so overspending on less than elite talent at this position is unwise.
11. Kyle Lowry | PG | UFA
Lowry
2013-14 Team: Toronto Raptors
2013-14 Salary: $6.2 million
Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, four years, player option
Update: Lowry reportedly agreed to a four-year, $48 million deal with Toronto. Lowry was the best point guard option on the market. He put together an All-Star-worthy campaign in Toronto, and managed to remain healthy (something that hasn't been a given). Still, he's got a reputation for rubbing people the wrong way, and his defense suffered some this season as he focused more on the offensive end.
12. Marcin Gortat | C | UFA
Gortat
2013-14 Team: Washington Wizards
2013-14 Salary: $7.7 million
Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, four years
Update: Gortat agreed to a five-year deal with the Wizards worth a fully guaranteed $60 million, with neither a player nor a team option entering the final season. The deal can't officially be signed until July 10, when a league-wide moratorium on signings and trades is lifted.
Gortat did everything he was supposed to do in a contract year: stayed healthy, shot efficiently at the rim, protected the defensive glass. He's a nice finisher with either hand in pick-and-rolls, and a decent team defender. Using Tiago Splitter as a comp, Gortat gets a nice $36 million over four years, giving him the long-term security he seeks without needlessly overpaying him.
13. Spencer Hawes | C | UFA
Hawes
2013-14 Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2013-14 Salary: $6.6 million
Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, three years
While the Cavs' playoff push ultimately fell short, Hawes posted nearly identical numbers within that context, proving his production in Philly was not the result of stat inflation in an awful team setting. His value as a stretch big with true 3-point range and excellent defensive rebounding makes him an extreme rarity. He's not the defender that Splitter and Gortat are, but his shooting separates him from them.
14. Luol Deng | SF | UFA
Deng
2013-14 Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2013-14 Salary: $14.2 million
Suggested AAV: $8.3 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on third year
Deng is the type of player whose production and worth are directly proportionate to the caliber of team he's playing for. On a winner, his defensive contributions and off-the-ball offensive movement can be crucial; on a struggling squad, he doesn't create enough offense and can't lift a team defense on his own. Three years and $25 million, with a partial guarantee on the final year, gives a winning team an effective third option without buying in long-term.
14. Channing Frye | PF/C | UFA
Frye
2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
2013-14 Salary: $6.4 million
Suggested AAV: $8 million/year, four years, partial guarantees on last two years
Frye's production took a nosedive after the All-Star break (40 versus 31.5 percent 3-point shooting), as he appeared to hit a wall. It's important to remember he missed the previous season with a heart condition, so getting used to playing heavy minutes in a full NBA season (something that hadn't been anticipated at season's start) was an adjustment. The pure shooter market was set last year with deals to Kyle Korver and Martell Webster, and when factoring in Frye's value as a post defender and defensive rebounder, a four-year, $32 million deal with partial guarantees on the last two years is fair.
15. Ed Davis | PF | UFA
Davis
2013-14 Team: Memphis Grizzlies
2013-14 Salary: $3.2 million
Suggested AAV: $5.7 million/year, four years
Davis benefits from the same premise that Monroe does: A scarcity of young bigs on the market makes him more valuable. Still, with Memphis locking into Zach Randolph with an extension and withdrawing Davis' qualifying offer, Davis won't be able to benefit from the type of bidding war that restricted free agents get. Using J.J. Hickson's deal last summer as a comp, Davis gets full midlevel.
16. Lance Stephenson | SG | UFA
Stephenson
2013-14 Team: Indiana Pacers
2013-14 Salary: $1 million
Suggested AAV: $6.5 million/year, three years
Lance, Lance, Lance. In the last iteration of this board, I had Stephenson at $9.5 million AAV, based off DeMar DeRozan's deal. The talent and production still warrant that valuation (especially when you consider his defensive tenacity and ability to handle the ball), but the perception has always been that Stephenson is volatile and cannot be relied on, and that was confirmed during the playoffs. Combined with his inconsistent play after the acquisition of Evan Turner, and Stephenson cast himself into J.R. Smith-comp territory.
17. Trevor Ariza | SF | UFA
Ariza
2013-14 Team: Washington Wizards
2013-14 Salary: $7.7 million
Suggested AAV: $5.7 million/year, four years
Ariza kicks off a string of full midlevel-exception-caliber players: vets who can fill a role immediately, but aren't necessarily cornerstones or building blocks. Ariza is one of the premier so-called "3 & D" specialists in the league, and he embraced that role last season in Washington. Because of their success last season, the Wizards will be inclined to overpay to keep him, but the fact is you shouldn't pay him to do more than defend and shoot 3s, because he can't do much more than that.
18. Boris Diaw | PF | UFA
Diaw
2013-14 Team: San Antonio Spurs
2013-14 Salary: $4.7 million
Suggested AAV: $5.7 million/year, four years, partial guarantee on last year
One of the most impactful players of the Spurs' championship run, Diaw is not quite a universal fit: He needs to be in a situation where there is ample scoring so his playmaking is valued, playing for a coach who is secure in himself and knows how to communicate. That list is pretty short, but if you have the circumstances to accommodate Diaw, you'll unlock elite IQ and passing, efficient post play and surprising defensive ability. The partial guarantee reflects Diaw's penchant to lose interest, and his struggles with his weight.
19. Josh McRoberts | PF | UFA
McRoberts
2013-14 Team: Charlotte Hornets
2013-14 Salary: $2.7 million
Suggested AAV: $5.5 million/year, three years
McRoberts is sort of Diaw-lite -- not quite a shooter and finisher, not as good a passer or defender, but still a high-IQ, jack-of-all-trades talent who benefits from being somewhere he's "understood." Full midlevel for three years; this figure is higher if the Hornets re-sign him.
20. Shawn Marion | SF | UFA
Marion
2013-14 Team: Dallas Mavericks 2013-14
2013-14 Salary: $9.3 million
Suggested AAV: $5.4 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Marion's defensive versatility and ability to manufacture scoring opportunities without having plays run for him can be a useful addition to a contending team. He's getting up there in age, so anything longer than a two-year deal at full midlevel would probably be too long a commitment.
21. Paul Pierce | SF | UFA
Pierce
2013-14 Team: Brooklyn Nets 2013-14
2013-14 Salary: $15.3 million
Suggested AAV: $5.4 million/year, two years, player option on second year
Another player in mercenary mode, Pierce rebounded from a slow start to show he's still a savvy scorer and an underrated playmaker. He can't be one of your top three scorers anymore, but can be an asset off the bench for a team looking to make the next step.
22. Avery Bradley | PG/SG | RFA
Bradley
2013-14 Team: Boston Celtics
2013-14 Salary: $2.5 million
Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, three years
Update: According ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg, Bradley has agreed to re-sign with the Celtics for a four-year contract worth $32 million. Bradley is one of the premier defensive players in the backcourt, but lacks the playmaking creativity to play point guard. His 3-point shooting improved significantly after the All-Star break, particularly above the break, where he more than doubled his accuracy from 28 percent to 57 percent. A comparable would be Tony Allen's four-year, $20 million deal, but even though Bradley's the far superior shooter, his smaller size doesn't give him as much versatility defensively as Allen.
23. Patty Mills | PG | UFA
Mills
2013-14 Team: San Antonio Spurs
2013-14 Salary: $1.1 million
Suggested AAV: $4.25 million/year, three years
Mills helped his stock tremendously during the postseason -- and especially in the Finals -- as a spark off the bench and a lights-out shooter. He's not a pure point guard, which makes him ideal as a first guard off the bench. Using comps like Randy Foye's deal with the Clippers a few years ago gives a two-year, $8.5 million deal. If Gary Neal had had Mills' success last season, he would have cashed in at this price point as well.
24. Isaiah Thomas | PG | RFA
Thomas
2013-14 Team: Sacramento Kings
2013-14 Salary: $884,293
Suggested AAV: $4 million/year, four years
Thomas is a tough player to gauge: He's lightning quick, with excellent dribble penetration skills, and is one of the best finishers at the rim in the league. He's also undersized, inconsistent defensively and shot-happy. He's best suited as a backup point guard who can step into a starting role if needed; using Nate Robinson's deals coming off restricted free agency in New York and then Boston as comps, a four-year, $16 million deal recognizes him as a high-level backup.
25. Patrick Patterson | PF | RFA
Patterson
2013-14 Team: Toronto Raptors
2013-14 Salary: $3.1 million
Suggested AAV: $4 million/year, three years
Update: Patterson has reportedly agreed to a 3-year, $18 million deal with the Raptors. The deal can't officially be signed until July 10, when a league-wide moratorium on signings and trades is lifted.
A solid pick-and-pop big who shot more than 40 percent from 3-point land last year, Patterson is hurt by his underwhelming defensive rebounding. But he's got the type of work ethic and character that makes him an excellent presence in the locker room, along with his ability to stretch the defense.
26. P.J. Tucker | SF | RFA
Tucker
2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns
2013-14 Salary: $884,293
Suggested AAV: $4 million/year, three years, non-guaranteed third year
Tucker emerged as a high-level defensive wing, and the addition of a reliable corner 3-point shot makes him more valuable. His restricted free agency coupled with Phoenix's grand free-agency plans means he'll be an easier target to extract with a competitive enough offer. At the same time, his advanced age necessitates not getting attached to a long-term deal.
27. Mo Williams | PG/SG | UFA
Williams
2013-14 Team: Portland Trail Blazers
2013-14 Salary: $2.7 million
Suggested AAV: $3.3 million/year, three years
Williams had a solid season backing up Damian Lillard, and many of the Blazers' best lineups were with him on the floor. It's exactly what he needed to show after a down year in Utah, and that's why he opted out of the second year of his deal.
28. Vince Carter | SG/SF | UFA
Carter
2013-14 Team: Dallas Mavericks
2013-14 Salary: $1.3 million
Suggested AAV: $3.3 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on third year
Carter has successfully made the transition from star to role player, and was an invaluable contributor to the Mavs last season, with clutch shooting and bouts of surprising defensive aptitude. Three years, $10 million with a partial guarantee allows a contending team to use part of the midlevel (or the taxpayer midlevel) to sign him.
29. Thabo Sefolosha | SG | UFA
Sefolosha
2013-14 Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
2013-14 Salary: $3.9 million
Suggested AAV: $3 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on last two years
Update: Sefolosha reportedly agreed to a three-year, $12 million deal with the Atlanta Hawks. But he could have had more. What went wrong? Sefolosha seemed to have figured out his 3-point range, even if it was only from the corners, but he struggled post-All-Star break and in the playoffs. His defense is still among the best in the league on the perimeter, and his presence was often a litmus test to how well/poorly the Thunder would defend the 3-point line. But ultimately, his lack of offense turned him into a liability and eventually a DNP-CD. This contract offers hope he can rediscover his stroke, and an out if he can't.
30. Shaun Livingston | PG | UFA
Livingston
2013-14 Team: Brooklyn Nets
2013-14 Salary: $1.3 million
Suggested AAV: $2.8 million/year, two years
Update: According to ESPN's Marc Stein, Livingston reportedly has agreed to full mid-level exception with the Golden State Warriors. Livingston was one of the best value deals last year, showing tremendous versatility in different lineups. He's a high-IQ passer who can post up and hit the midrange jumper. His lack of 3-point range deflates his value somewhat, but he's a good buy at midlevel pricing.