The deal
Nuggets get: Arron Afflalo.
Magic get: Evan Fournier, Nuggets' 2014 second-round pick (No. 56 overall).
Denver Nuggets: B-plus
Apparently it's reunion week in the NBA. On Wednesday, Tyson Chandler went back to Dallas. On Thursday, a little less than two years after the Nuggets dealt Afflalo to the Magic as part of the four-team trade involving Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Andre Iguodala, they've brought him back to Denver.
There has been a rush to overrate Afflalo a few times, including last season, when he was briefly talked up as an All-Star candidate. Afflalo had his best offensive season in 2013-14, combining the higher usage rate from his first season in Orlando with the high 3-point percentage he had previously shot with the Nuggets. Still, to consider Afflalo an All-Star requires a higher view of his defensive ability than the numbers support.
Afflalo has poor rebound and steal rates, so his defensive contributions are largely limited to individual defense; there, he's closer to average than elite. Last season, the Magic had 6.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court, per NBA.com/Stats -- a discrepancy that adjusted plus-minus suggests can't entirely be blamed on undersized backcourt-mate Jameer Nelson.
Still, even if Afflalo is only an average shooting guard, he's a great fit for his old team. Last season, Denver had the same issue using Randy Foye (6-foot-4, 213 pounds) as a tiny 2-guard; the Nuggets were 5.1 points worse on defense per 100 possessions when Foye played. Ideally, Foye would come off the bench and see time at both guard spots, a role to which he can now return.
That upgrade comes at a reasonable price for Denver, which retained its lottery pick (No. 11 overall) in this deal. Fournier has flashed potential, particularly as a rookie, but the clock is ticking on him contributing during the remaining two years of his rookie contract, and he never separated himself from the Nuggets' cadre of wing options.
Though Denver adds about $6 million in salary with this deal, it remains safely under the luxury-tax line with a roster that is more or less complete, depending on other moves general manager Tim Connelly and company may have in store. While making the playoffs will still be a big challenge in the increasingly brutal Western Conference -- note all three trades this week have involved playoff contenders in the West bulking up for next season -- this move has so little downside that it's still a winner.
Orlando Magic: C
Getting only Fournier and a second-rounder for Afflalo feels disappointing compared to the tantalizing rumors we've heard during the past week: Afflalo for the No. 11 pick from Denver, or as part of a trade to move up to the No. 1 pick. As Grantland's Zach Lowe noted on Twitter, Magic GM Rob Hennigan is known for his diligence, and it's unlikely he simply didn't follow through on greater offers. Afflalo's trade value is probably overstated.
That being the case, the follow-up question is why Orlando was in such a hurry to move Afflalo. He blocked Victor Oladipo's path to the starting lineup, certainly, but the Magic might have been able to start both players together or wait out the summer and see if a shooting guard became a more desperate need for a team following free agency.
The biggest asset Orlando gains in this deal (cap space) is one it already had in abundance. Orlando can now clear about $20 million under the cap by waiving Nelson, whose salary this season is just $2 million guaranteed. Perhaps there are future moves contingent on that space. We'll see.
The Magic also get a lottery ticket in Fournier, the 20th overall pick in the 2012 draft who won't turn 22 until just before opening night. As a 20-year-old rookie, Fournier gave the Nuggets good minutes after Danilo Gallinari's season-ending ACL injury, showing the ability to cross-match and successfully defend point guards -- something that might be useful as part of a backcourt pairing with Oladipo. Last season, Fournier's shooting percentages dipped both inside and outside the arc, and he dropped below replacement level. He's projected barely above that mark for 2014-15.