Last week, my Per Diem colleague Tom Haberstroh laid out the ugly numbers for the 2013 rookie class. Fortunately, that season is in the past, and it's time to look to the future. Is there hope for last year's draft? I think so, within reason.
In general, how draft classes perform as rookies is predictive of their long-term value in the league. Here's how those match up in terms of wins above replacement player (WARP) for drafts from 1977 through 2000, the most recent class with fewer than 10 players still active.
There's a clear linear relationship, but it's far from perfect. And even far and away the worst rookie class in that span, from the dismal 2000 draft, racked up more than 300 career WARP the remainder of their careers as ineffective picks lost their playing time while the promising rookies developed into capable veterans.
Additionally, the greatest outlier of any draft class won't be found on the chart because it's too recent. During 2007-08, rookies from the 2007 draft combined to rate worse than replacement level. Led by fast-developing Kevin Durant and late bloomers like Mike Conley, Joakim Noah and Arron Afflalo, players from the 2007 draft have already racked up nearly 400 WARP, more than either the 2002 or 2006 drafts.
So, which players from the 2013 draft might someday help it escape ignominy? Answering that question required me to study the relationship between individual rookie performance and value going forward. I focused on the next three seasons, the remainder of the rookie contract, and found three predictive variables: Age, performance level (measured by win percentage, the per-minute component of WARP akin to PER) and minutes per game. Together, those three factors explain about half in the variation in average WARP over the following three seasons.
Based on those factors, here are the 2013 draftees -- not counting Nerlens Noel, who had no rookie performance -- most likely to excel over the next three seasons.
Antetokounmpo
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
(5.6 projected WARP per season)
If we redid the 2013 draft a year later, Antetokounmpo would likely go No. 1. At age 19, Antetokounmpo started 23 games and never looked out of his depth. Among players younger than 19 at the time of their NBA debut, just three (LeBron James, Dwight Howard and Josh Smith) played more minutes as rookies. Antetokounmpo's performance wasn't quite to that standard, as he rated around replacement level, but he's got years of improvement before he reaches his prime.
Carter-Williams
Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Philadelphia 76ers
(4.9 projected WARP)
Though the Rookie of the Year saw his advanced stats slide badly over the second half of his rookie season, he still led all first-year players with 4.4 WARP. Expect that to improve as Carter-Williams hones his shot selection (just two players, Josh Smith last season and Antoine Walker in 2003-04, have attempted more 3s while shooting a percentage as low as Carter-Williams' 26.4 percent mark) and improves his turnover rate. Better teammates will ease that process.
Burke
Trey Burke, PG, Utah Jazz
(4.5 projected WARP)
Of the top three finishers in ROY voting, Burke rated as the least valuable last season (0.8 WARP). His long-term potential is better than that for a couple of reasons. First, at 21, Burke is the youngest of the three. Second, he logged an impressive 32.3 minutes per game. Only Carter-Williams played more.
Oladipo
Victor Oladipo, G, Orlando Magic
(4.2 projected WARP)
The No. 2 overall pick appears to have a slightly lower ceiling than the other two top ROY contenders. Oladipo is older than Burke and wasn't as effective as Carter-Williams. However, box score stats might understate his potential if Oladipo can develop into a lockdown defender as advertised.
Adams
Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
(3.4 projected WARP)
Adams' breakout postseason, in which he increased his playing time from 14.8 minutes per game to 18.4 and played a key role in the Thunder's series win over the L.A. Clippers, served notice of his potential. With starter Kendrick Perkins in the final season of his contract, Adams could emerge as a starter as soon as next season at age 21.
Goodwin
Archie Goodwin, G, Phoenix Suns
(3.1 projected WARP)
Goodwin's optimistic projection almost is solely a function of his age. Only Antetokounmpo was younger in the NBA last season, and Goodwin is five months younger than Joel Embiid. He showed flashes in limited action, but will have to develop quickly to rank among the top picks in 2013.
Hardaway Jr.
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, New York Knicks
(2.8 projected WARP)
On the strength of 36.3 percent 3-point shooting, Hardaway was one of last season's most efficient rookies. Still, he rated barely better than replacement level because of his poor rebounding and defense. Box score stats might not go far enough in that regard; Hardaway's minus-4.9 defensive real plus-minus rating ranked in the league's bottom five.
Zeller
Cody Zeller, PF, Charlotte Hornets
(2.8 projected WARP)
Quietly, Zeller put together an impressive second half of the season, improving his shooting percentage from 38.0 percent before the All-Star break to 50.7 percent thereafter. At that level of finishing, Zeller is a valuable role player.
Olynyk
Kelly Olynyk, PF, Boston Celtics
(2.7 projected WARP)
Olynyk, too, showed development over the course of the season, improving his true shooting percentage from .504 to .596 after the All-Star break. Olynyk's defense may prevent him from being a long-term starter, but his dangerous shooting touch will get him on the floor.
Caldwell-Pope
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons
(2.6 projected WARP)
Of the top 10 prospects by this method, Caldwell-Pope was least valuable as a rookie, rating nearly a win worse than replacement level. His age (21) and large role for the Pistons suggest Caldwell-Pope should still develop into a contributor.
The old centers
The two members of the All-Rookie Teams outside the top 10, Mason Plumlee and Gorgui Dieng were second and fourth, respectively, in WARP among rookies. They project weaker going forward because of their age (both were 24 by season's end) and limited playing time. Since both players maintained their level of play in starting roles -- Dieng improved when asked to play more minutes -- they should still be among the most valuable 2013 draftees.
Potential busts
Bennett
Anthony Bennett, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
(1.1 projected WARP)
Here's the good news: Bennett is projected above replacement level, a perch he never found last season, when he finished with minus-1.6 WARP. Bennett is barely 21, and he might have rated better had he stayed healthy all season, but he posted the least valuable season by a No. 1 pick in the WARP era (back to 1977). Of the other three top picks who rated below replacement level (Kwame Brown, Pervis Ellison and Michael Olowokandi), only Ellison went on to provide any positive value over the remainder of his career.
Len
Alex Len, C, Phoenix Suns
(1.4 projected WARP)
Like several other players in this group, Len's rookie season comes with two caveats. He was limited by injury that cost him two months of action and played for a contending team rather than one focused on player development, making it tough to get on the court.
McCollum
C.J. McCollum, G, Portland Trail Blazers
(0.1 projected WARP)
Because he was a four-year senior who played sparingly as a rookie (again, after the injury that cost him the first two months of the season), McCollum's projection is lowest among lottery picks, and just two first-round picks project worse. McCollum's limited playing time makes it tough to determine whether he can replace Mo Williams should Williams leave as a free agent.
McLemore
Ben McLemore, SG, Sacramento Kings
(2.4 projected WARP)
The one player in this group who was healthy all season, McLemore ranked fourth among rookies by playing 26.7 minutes per game. The large role has positive implications going forward, but it meant his 3.2 wins below replacement level were worst of any rookie. For McLemore to be part of Sacramento's future, he'll have to improve last season's 32.0 percent 3-point shooting.
Porter
Otto Porter, SF, Washington Wizards
(1.3 projected WARP)
Porter played the fewest minutes (319) of any lottery pick, and looked tentative during his rare appearances. He, too, missed training camp due to injury, along with the first month of the regular season, but Porter's hazy outlook makes it more difficult for the Wizards to decide on re-signing starting small forward Trevor Ariza.