It's June 2015 and the Miami Heat's dreams have come true. Looking to extend their title run, Heat stars Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have opted out and signed smaller contracts, clearing enough cap space for Miami to sign Carmelo Anthony at a similar discount as an unrestricted free agent -- a scenario detailed by our Marc Stein and Brian Windhorst.
Now, in our vision, comes the fun part for everyone but opponents: Seeing how the Heat's star-studded lineup might play out on the court. What can numbers tell us about the potential new Miami "Big Four" mix?
Adjustment of roles
Advanced statistics aren't required to realize the Heat's Big Three and Anthony would be in for some adjustments if they joined forces, much as was the case when Bosh and James teamed up with Wade four years ago. However, advanced stats can quantify the magnitude of the change.
Heat time of possession
According to SportVU camera tracking on NBA.com, Miami's possessions this season were dominated by James, Wade and whichever point guard the team had on the floor (either starter Mario Chalmers or backup Norris Cole). Chalmers, James and Wade together possessed the ball on average an incredible 97.4 percent of the time the Heat had it during the regular season, as the chart at right details. Add in Bosh and Rashard Lewis -- the rest of the team's starting lineup in the Finals -- and that figure shoots to 112.7 percent.
While it might not be possible for players to give 110 percent effort, lineups can combine for more than 100 percent time of possession because starters tend to have the ball more frequently when playing with reserves. Indeed, aside from Cole, no other Miami reserve possessed the ball more than 12 percent of the time, and James and Wade each ramped up his possession when the other was on the bench.
Still, it's impossible to add in Anthony -- who possessed the ball 23.4 percent of the time New York had it this season -- and make the current numbers work, since he'd be replacing low-possession players like Lewis (6.4 percent) and Battier (6.5 percent).
The math is even more difficult when it comes to usage, since Anthony tends to shoot relatively frequently for how long he holds the ball. He finished 32.4 percent of the Knicks' possessions with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover, the league's third-highest usage rate. Anthony finished just ahead of James (31.0 percent usage), while Wade (27.9 percent) was 13th.
Including the 2011 Heat, nine teams dating back to 1978 (the first year player turnovers were tracked) have had two players with usage rates of 30 percent or higher. But only one team has ever had three players with usage rates as high as Anthony, James and Wade had this season: the 2008 San Antonio Spurs, with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, none of whom used more than 29 percent of the team's possessions.
So if Miami's hypothetical four-star lineup were to work, it would mean sacrificing not only money but also shots and time with the ball.
Less usage, more efficiency
The upside for the Heat, if they pulled Anthony's addition off with the right team-first attitude, is the relationship between usage and efficiency. The fewer possessions a player has to use, in general, the better his shooting percentages. Indeed, before Anthony was traded to New York, I found evidence of this effect among his Denver Nuggets teammates.
Typically, the benefit is muted among superstars, since part of the reason they handle so many possessions is their rare ability to do so without sacrificing as much efficiency as players who struggle to create their own shots. But James has been more efficient in Miami than he was playing a larger role with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the best true shooting percentage (TS%) of Anthony's career came when he played a full season in Denver with Allen Iverson and saw his usage drop.
The lessons of USA Basketball
Of course, we don't have to imagine Anthony playing with James, Wade and Bosh. Instead, we merely must look back to the 2008 Olympics and 2006 FIBA World Championship, when they teamed up for USA Basketball. While those lineups were significantly more star-studded, and often playing against overmatched opposition, they offer some guidance for how the possible 2014-15 Heat lineup might play.
In 2006, Anthony (19.9 PPG), Wade (19.3 PPG) and James (13.9 PPG) were the three leading scorers for a U.S. team that was upset by Greece in the semifinals. Two years later, Wade (16.0 PPG) and James (15.5 PPG) topped the team in scoring en route to a gold medal in Beijing, with Anthony (11.5 PPG) fourth after Kobe Bryant.
USA Basketball usage rates
While playing for Team USA, James has been content to serve as a facilitator rather than a finisher, as his drop in usage rate (see table at right) indicates. That was even more the case during the 2012 Olympics, when Anthony and James won gold in London without Bosh and Wade. James' usage would likely drop more than any other current Heat player if Miami were to add Anthony -- which isn't necessarily a good thing, given how incredible James is as a scorer.
As the usage-efficiency trade-off would predict, all four players have been more efficient in international play than in the NBA. That's most associated with Anthony, though a couple of caveats are worth noting. First, Anthony wasn't especially efficient in the 2008 Olympics, when his .599 TS% ranked ninth on the 12-man roster. Instead, it's largely an artifact of 2012, when Anthony's .689 TS% was fourth on the team, ahead of James (.662).
Second, besides the smaller role, Anthony has also benefited from the shorter FIBA 3-point line. He made a strong 57.5 percent of his 2-point attempts in London, but also shot a sizzling 23-of-46 from downtown, accounting for half of his field goals. Though Anthony has developed into a dangerous shooter from the NBA line, which would help him playing off the ball in Miami, he's unlikely to make half of his triple attempts.
Team context
So far, we've only considered Anthony, Bosh, James and Wade as they might play together, but that's probably not the greatest benefit to the Heat potentially adding Anthony. Rather, it's the ability to give the other three players more rest while continuing the "maintenance program" that helped keep Wade fresh for the playoffs that is most intriguing. Miami was outscored by 30 points in the 1,074 minutes James spent on the bench this season. Lineups with at least two of Anthony, Bosh and Wade figure to improve on those totals.
At the same time, to add Anthony the Heat would have to sacrifice depth. As Insider's Amin Elhassan explained, getting far enough under the cap to sign Anthony would mean renouncing the rights to all of Miami's free agents, leaving the Heat with only the room exception (worth $2.73 million) to sign players for more than the minimum.
Pat Riley's real recruiting would come after signing Anthony, as he attempted to convince players to sign for the minimum for a shot at the championship. He'd surely get some veteran takers, and perhaps even find some useful players like Lewis has proven during this year's playoff run. But the Heat would be counting on the strengths of their stars offsetting the limitations of the players around them -- something that hasn't happened during this year's NBA Finals.
So when you're imagining a lineup featuring Anthony, Bosh, James and Wade, be sure to check out the rest of the bench. Those players might determine whether Miami's potential summer plan is really a dream scenario.